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Six of One, 1/2 Dozen of Another.
Distribution of Swings, see attached
Clyde
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -Clyde
Lee
Chairman/CEO (Home of
SwingMachine)SYTECH
Corporation email: <A
href="mailto:clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx";>clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx 7910
Westglen, Suite 105
Office: (713) 783-9540Houston, TX
77063
Fax: (713) 783-1092Details
at:
www.theswingmachine.com- - - -
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
Jim
Johnson
To: <A title=wd78@xxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:wd78@xxxxxxxxxxxx";>wavemechanic
Cc: <A title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Sunday, April 14, 2002 7:33
AM
Subject: Re[8]: [RT] Fibo
predictions
Hello wavemechanic, Clyde and others,regarding
CLyde's analysis---clever way of finding if there isanything going on. and
I do believe if Fibs are repeating patterns,there should be some blips in
the distribution of swing %'s.For clyde, when I opened the chart I
expected to find a frequencydistribution. I couldn't tell what it
was you actually posted. in afreq deistr I would expect a
multi-modal disribution with humps at 38,50, 62 especiallly.for
the others, If Mandelbrot's assessment of fractal structure ofmarekts is
correct, it shouldn't matter which granularity (i.e. swingstrength in this
case) one chooses. the fractal structure should bethe same and the
fib effects would be present.-- Best regards,Jim
Johnson
mailto:jejohn@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSaturday, April 13, 2002, 8:03:19 PM,
you wrote:w> Clyde:w> I think you have oversimplified a
fairly complex problem. The goal is to identify the major turns within
perhaps +/- 1-2%, as in the case of similar studies (e.g., pitchforks, So9,
etc.). Inw> order to do this, traders usually use more than just
fibo levels to make a judgement as to what the significant level is.
They look for meshing between major fibo levels and otherw>
subjective/objective factors (e.g., EW, indicators, etc.). Take a look
at the attached. Would your analysis pick up the major turns on this
MSFT daily, rejecting the minor swings within eachw> leg? That is
the primary goal. My guess is that you will have to use different pivot
parameters to catch major and minor turns. I also suspect that
consistent results will be very difficult tow> achieve using pivots
alone. I do know, however, that more often than not the major turns are
in synch with the "standard" fib, So9, etc. levels. In addition, there
appears to be reasonablew> evidence that the patterns are fractal,
extending up/down in time. Of course, to see that one has to change the
"microscope's magnification" by, for example, adjusting pivot "+/-" size,
indicatorw> settings, etc., as a one size fits all would most probably
not be suitable in the majority of cases. w>
Billw> ----- Original Message ----- w>
From: Clyde Lee w> To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
w> Sent: Saturday, April 13, 2002 4:13
PMw> Subject: Re: Re[6]: [RT] Fibo
predictionsw> What does it take to prove that Fib
numbers have no validity inw> estimating where prices might
make a turn.w> I have posted several charts which
clearly prove this is the w> case and yet we continue to
hear BS about Fib numbers.w> Just to make it clear,
here is an explanation of the methodw> behind the attached
chart.w> Consider a swing such as the
following"w>
bw> /
\w> /
\w> /
\w>
a
\w>
\
w>
cw> and calculate the ratio
(b-a)/(b-c)w> or a swing of the following
typew>
aw> \
w>
\w>
\
cw>
\
/w> \
/w>
bw> and calculate the ratio
(a-b)/(c-b)w> Do this with a mathematically definable
methodw> of picking swings and accumulate the ratios
inw> a spread sheet, sort the data by ratio, and
makew> a chart.w> The attached is
exactly that chart for the S&Pw> index from 1930 until
now using an 8 bar lengthw> window for picking
pivots.w> A careful examination will indicate a more or
lessw> CONTINUIOUS distribution of ratios of the 1713
swingsw> which existed in the period of study and had a
ratiow> of less than 2.0.w> If there
were ANY VALIDITY to the concept of turningw> of prices at
FIB levels then there would be a bunchingw> of data about
the various FIB levels and not the veryw> continuous
distribution that is found in the data.w> Again, people
may use the fib levels as levels atw> which to be aware of
potential turns in direction ofw> prices but the analysis
says that we are just as wellw> off with a random set of
lines since there will notw> be any grouping around them
either.w> Please, examine these data in detail and if I
amw> missing something then provide the data or
interpretationw> of these data that says
otherwise.w> Clydew> - - - -
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
-w> Clyde Lee
Chairman/CEO (Home of
SwingMachine)w> SYTECH
Corporation email:
clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx w> 7910 Westglen, Suite
105 Office: (713)
783-9540w> Houston, TX
77063
Fax: (713) 783-1092w> Details
at:
www.theswingmachine.comw> - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - - - -w> -----
Original Message ----- w> From: ztrader
w> To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
w> Sent: Saturday, April 13, 2002 1:37
PMw> Subject: Re[6]: [RT] Fibo
predictionsw> On Saturday, April 13,
2002, 11:10:12 AM, wavemechanic wrote:w>
w> Are you thinking that confluence is associated with Fibs
only?w> w> Could it be extended
to any coincidence of indicators?w>
w> As long as the indicators are truely different (e.g.,
velocity vs acceleration, etc.).w> How
about a 50 ma and a 200 ma with identical values, and price
isw> approaching this value? Would this
'confluence' have more importancew> than if the
two ma's had quite different values?w>
ztraderw> To unsubscribe from this
group, send an email to:w>
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