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Tom, Ztrader and others,
Tom - If someone had such a technique, wouldn't you
assume he was using it on a daily basis? So the only trouble involved would be
in posting the prediction.
Ztrader - I did not ask that the technique be
revealed but merely that it be proven by forward posting of the
predictions.
It is interesting that those that have responded
have questioned the details of my challenge and reasons why no one would
respond. But no one has said, I can do that but $1000 is not enough or I will do
it but 100 observations are too many. Perhaps the best reason no one will accept
is their desire to remain annonamous however I believe I could offer $10,000 or
$100000. and their would be no takers because IT IS NOT POSSIBLE!
This group has spent considerable band width
debating the usefullness of Fib . projections as a price prediction tool. yet no
one has offered a prediction based on Fib. levels.
So let's forgot the challange and ask if someone
has a price prediction technique that meets my accuracy requirements (within +/-
25% of average daily range) post three predictions to prove the possibility of
price prediction. Don't be surprised, guys, if there are still no
takers.
Jim
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----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
Tom Bowen
To: <A title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Saturday, April 13, 2002 9:40
PM
Subject: Re: [RT] $1000.00
CHALLANGE
Jim,
Why would anyone go to the time and trouble to
formulate the data, do the analysis required, apply all of the screening
tests and then take the risk of attempting to predict the future for a paltry
$1,000?
Thanks
Tom
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----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
Jim White
To: <A
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Saturday, April 13, 2002 9:28
PM
Subject: Re: [RT] $1000.00
CHALLANGE
Clyde,
You are correct. The definition of a reversal
is as follows:
For a high pivot, the reversal is confirmed by
a close below the low of the bar with the highest high. For a low pivot, the
reversal is confirmed by the close above the high of the bar with the lowest
low. Prediction of the next reversal high or low must be posted with email
date of that day. And yes I am restricting the challenge to daily data as a
matter of practicality.
Jim
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----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
Clyde
Lee
To: <A
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Saturday, April 13, 2002 6:45
PM
Subject: Re: [RT] $1000.00
CHALLANGE
Jim,
For this to be a viable challenge you must
specify what is a "REVERSAL" for
purposes of this test.
The definition must be one for which an
algorithm can be written to detect all
reversals that are to be considered and such
must be a reasonable
approach to determining such
reversals.
Until this definition exists then it would be
foolish to begin to try to predict
undefined reversals.
From your post it would seem that you are
looking at daily data. Is that a
correct assumption or are other time
intervals for price measurement
to be considered.
Clyde
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
-Clyde Lee
Chairman/CEO (Home
of SwingMachine)SYTECH
Corporation email:
clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx
7910 Westglen, Suite 105
Office: (713) 783-9540Houston, TX
77063
Fax: (713) 783-1092Details
at:
www.theswingmachine.com-
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
Jim White
To: <A
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Saturday, April 13, 2002 8:36
PM
Subject: [RT] $1000.00
CHALLANGE
Perhaps my challenge went unnoticed. I
believe that predicting the price of a reversal is not possible. If
anyone can prove a method that will predict the reversal price of a
market within 50% of the five day average range, 80% % of the time . I
will pay you $1000.00. The rules are simple. Predict ahead of time by
this list the reversal price for 100 observations and have 80 % or more
within actual reversal price +/- 25% of average daily range. Are
there any takers?
Jim
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