|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
Clyde:
OK, forget about realistic use of Fibonacci levels,
let's just look at your pivots vs. Fibonacci. Three things pop out.
First, when your pivot finder finds a pivot (gray line), it is in agreement with
what one gets by eye, but it misses several, some of which are quite important -
but admittedly some are a judgment call. Where eyeball and automatic
are in synch, the difference between the actual pivot (red) and the Fibonacci
level (black) is not very great, although the percentage difference appears to
increase for small swings on the basis of this small sample. Not
surprising since small shifts in price will have a larger effect on the
percentage difference for small swings. In any case, the clustering of the
Fibonacci levels around the pivot values indicates to me that this is not a
random event. My statistics are too rusty, so I'll leave it to the
statisticians in the group to demonstrate that this is or is not the case.
Placing your data within groups that are, for example, +/-
3% of the pivot wide might be a better of seeing what is going
on. It is also important to note that the Fibonacci levels (and other
"level" methods) are most accurate when used to measure complete swings (at
least in my experience), as shown by the 0.618 May-Sept retracement (and the
previous chart of MSFT), which is far from random behavior. Yes, I know it
is an isolated example, so I'll leave it to you or others to prove or disprove
this observation that based on comments over the years is considered by many to
be a truism and who use it routinely.
Bill
----- Original Message -----
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
Clyde Lee
To: <A title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Saturday, April 13, 2002 9:39
PM
Subject: Re: Re[6]: [RT] Fibo
predictions
Let us get back to the original thesis of this
discussion:
Are FIB levels any better than RANDOM
levels.
The analysis I have provided indicate that
NEITHER holds
an advantage over the other.
It is easy to pick one or two examples which seem
to indicate
that there is significance in FIB levels but if
we look at some
1500 to 2000 pivots over a period of 72 years or
so there is
clear proof that FIB levels are no more
significant than some
kind of random selection of numbers.
This analysis has been run from very minor swings
to very
major swings and the same distribution
exists.
I know that there are people who swear by FIB as
a guide to
pivots and have used their concepts successfully
but the fact
is that there is no more significance to FIB
levels than some
random set of numbers we select.
Clyde
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -Clyde
Lee
Chairman/CEO (Home of
SwingMachine)SYTECH
Corporation email: <A
href="mailto:clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx";>clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx 7910
Westglen, Suite 105
Office: (713) 783-9540Houston, TX
77063
Fax: (713) 783-1092Details
at:
www.theswingmachine.com- - -
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
wavemechanic
To: <A
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Saturday, April 13, 2002 7:03
PM
Subject: Re: Re[6]: [RT] Fibo
predictions
Clyde:
I think you have oversimplified a fairly complex
problem. The goal is to identify the major turns within perhaps
+/- 1-2%, as in the case of similar studies (e.g., pitchforks,
So9, etc.). In order to do this, traders usually use more
than just fibo levels to make a judgement as to what the significant
level is. They look for meshing between major fibo levels and
other subjective/objective factors (e.g., EW, indicators, etc.). Take
a look at the attached. Would your analysis pick up the major turns on
this MSFT daily, rejecting the minor swings within each leg? That is
the primary goal. My guess is that you will have to use different
pivot parameters to catch major and minor turns. I also
suspect that consistent results will be very difficult to achieve using
pivots alone. I do know, however, that more often than not
the major turns are in synch with the "standard" fib, So9, etc.
levels. In addition, there appears to be reasonable evidence that
the patterns are fractal, extending up/down in time. Of course, to see
that one has to change the "microscope's magnification" by, for example,
adjusting pivot "+/-" size, indicator settings, etc., as a one size
fits all would most probably not be suitable in the majority of cases.
<FONT
size=2>
Bill
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
Clyde
Lee
To: <A
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Saturday, April 13, 2002 4:13
PM
Subject: Re: Re[6]: [RT] Fibo
predictions
What does it take to prove that Fib
numbers have no validity in
estimating where prices might make a
turn.
I have posted several charts which
clearly prove this is the
case and yet we continue to hear BS
about Fib numbers.
Just to make it clear, here is an
explanation of the method
behind the attached
chart.
Consider a swing such as the
following"
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2> b
/ \
/ \
/ \
a \
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>
\
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>
c
and calculate the ratio
(b-a)/(b-c)
or a swing of the following
type
a
\
\
\ c
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2> \
/
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2> \ /
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>
b
and calculate the ratio
(a-b)/(c-b)
Do this with a mathematically
definable method
of picking swings and accumulate the
ratios in
a spread sheet, sort the data by
ratio, and make
a chart.
The attached is exactly that chart
for the S&P
index from 1930 until now using an 8
bar length
window for picking
pivots.
A careful examination will indicate a
more or less
CONTINUIOUS distribution of ratios of
the 1713 swings
which existed in the period of study
and had a ratio
of less than 2.0.
If there were ANY VALIDITY to the
concept of turning
of prices at FIB levels then there
would be a bunching
of data about the various FIB levels
and not the very
continuous distribution that is found
in the data.
Again, people may use the fib levels
as levels at
which to be aware of potential turns
in direction of
prices but the analysis says that we
are just as well
off with a random set of lines since
there will not
be any grouping around them
either.
Please, examine these data in detail
and if I am
missing something then provide the
data or interpretation
of these data that says
otherwise.
Clyde
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - -Clyde Lee
Chairman/CEO (Home
of SwingMachine)SYTECH
Corporation email:
clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx
7910 Westglen, Suite 105
Office: (713) 783-9540Houston, TX
77063
Fax: (713) 783-1092Details
at:
www.theswingmachine.com-
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
ztrader
To: <A
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Saturday, April 13, 2002 1:37
PM
Subject: Re[6]: [RT] Fibo
predictions
On Saturday, April 13, 2002, 11:10:12 AM,
wavemechanic wrote:w> Are you thinking that
confluence is associated with Fibs only?w> Could it
be extended to any coincidence of indicators?w>
As long as the indicators are truely different (e.g., velocity vs
acceleration, etc.).How about a 50 ma and a 200 ma with
identical values, and price isapproaching this value? Would this
'confluence' have more importancethan if the two ma's had quite
different values?ztraderTo unsubscribe
from this group, send an email
to:realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxYour
use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the <A
href="http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/";>Yahoo! Terms of
Service. To unsubscribe from this
group, send an email
to:realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxYour
use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the <A
href="http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/";>Yahoo! Terms of Service.
To unsubscribe from this group, send an email
to:realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxYour
use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the <A
href="http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/";>Yahoo! Terms of Service.
To
unsubscribe from this group, send an email
to:realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxYour
use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the <A
href="http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/";>Yahoo! Terms of Service.
Yahoo! Groups Sponsor
ADVERTISEMENT
To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the Yahoo! Terms of Service.
Attachment:
Description: "041202spxdayfibovsclyde.gif"
|