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Clyde,
Just a thought but if I understand your chart
correctly, it is comparing just "the ratio of any leg to prior leg difference in
price".
What if the prior leg has "multiple legs" down like
the SP cash from the high 1552.87 to the Sept low 969.73 and the resulting
reaction up leg is multiple legs?
Does your study just cover just single swings to
the prior swing and not multiple legs to multiple swing leg
retracements?
don ewers
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
Clyde Lee
To: <A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Saturday, April 13, 2002 3:13
PM
Subject: Re: Re[6]: [RT] Fibo
predictions
What does it take to prove that Fib
numbers have no validity in
estimating where prices might make a
turn.
I have posted several charts which
clearly prove this is the
case and yet we continue to hear BS about
Fib numbers.
Just to make it clear, here is an
explanation of the method
behind the attached chart.
Consider a swing such as the
following"
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2> b
/
\
/ \
/ \
a \
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>
\
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>
c
and calculate the ratio
(b-a)/(b-c)
or a swing of the following
type
a
\
\
\ c
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2> \ /
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2> \ /
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2> b
and calculate the ratio
(a-b)/(c-b)
Do this with a mathematically definable
method
of picking swings and accumulate the
ratios in
a spread sheet, sort the data by ratio,
and make
a chart.
The attached is exactly that chart for
the S&P
index from 1930 until now using an 8 bar
length
window for picking pivots.
A careful examination will indicate a
more or less
CONTINUIOUS distribution of ratios of the
1713 swings
which existed in the period of study and
had a ratio
of less than 2.0.
If there were ANY VALIDITY to the concept
of turning
of prices at FIB levels then there would
be a bunching
of data about the various FIB levels and
not the very
continuous distribution that is found in
the data.
Again, people may use the fib levels as
levels at
which to be aware of potential turns in
direction of
prices but the analysis says that we are
just as well
off with a random set of lines since
there will not
be any grouping around them
either.
Please, examine these data in detail and
if I am
missing something then provide the data
or interpretation
of these data that says
otherwise.
Clyde
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
- - - - - -Clyde Lee
Chairman/CEO (Home of
SwingMachine)SYTECH
Corporation email: <A
href="mailto:clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx";>clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx 7910
Westglen, Suite 105
Office: (713) 783-9540Houston, TX
77063
Fax: (713) 783-1092Details
at:
www.theswingmachine.com- - -
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
ztrader
To: <A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Saturday, April 13, 2002 1:37
PM
Subject: Re[6]: [RT] Fibo
predictions
On Saturday, April 13, 2002, 11:10:12 AM, wavemechanic
wrote:w> Are you thinking that confluence is
associated with Fibs only?w> Could it be extended to any
coincidence of indicators?w> As long as the
indicators are truely different (e.g., velocity vs acceleration,
etc.).How about a 50 ma and a 200 ma with identical values, and
price isapproaching this value? Would this 'confluence' have more
importancethan if the two ma's had quite different
values?ztrader
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