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Lee,
If I don't see a good wave 4 (credible with 5/35 to
zero and an ABC with divergence between the A and the C on a 5/17) and
subsequently a good minor wave 4 in wave 5 (use the 5/17 a lot for wave 5
internal count), I generally as a rule won't trade it.
It is these "foolers" that one learns through
experience, in a reduction in their pocketbook, to respect :-)
Your lessor time frame is correct and pivotal,
which is why I would recommend having the 60min charts. The problem is you
can normally only get them using AGET data which is expensive, although I
understand there are now methods to "get around that", pardon the
pun.
don ewers
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
Lee Morris
To: <A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Wednesday, April 10, 2002 2:15
PM
Subject: RE: [RT] AOL
<SPAN
class=010044718-10042002>There have been a lot of "foolers" recently, I would
like to hear how some people handle this aspect of Aget. The way I have been
trying to deal with this is using the assumption that if you can determine
which wave is in control at that time then most lesser time frames will
normally complete 5 waves before turning. Right now I believe that we are near
the end of this down move and so many of the dailies need to be satisfied most
have not gotten to their wave 5 targets so I would treat the rally today as a
w4 of w5 and either cut my size and/or go down to a small time frame to
protect against a complex w4. The only issue with this is I do not have a well
defined point as to when I concede that a low is in and an impulse wave has
started.
<FONT face=Tahoma
size=2>-----Original Message-----From: Don Ewers
[mailto:dbewers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]Sent: Wednesday, April 10, 2002
2:40 PMTo: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject: Re:
[RT] AOLBobKC,Here is the 60min chart on AOL (I
added the daily again if needed forreference).It is just looking
at the price structure from minor wave 4 of wave 5 on thedaily
(basically the point where the regression channels start on the
dailychart). If the pattern is correct, then it is in the extended
wave 3 rangewhich only happens 8% of the time. In otherwords a
time to tighten stops ifone were short or cover. What could happen from
here is a wave 4 rally onthe 60min, followed by another final wave 5
decline (provided the PTI stayshigh enough, currently 99) that might
reach down into the refined area shownon the daily.The wave 4
rally could trigger a "false buy on the daily" (braking theregression
lines and 6/4 ma), which I call the "fooler", until pattern is"really"
done.As an add on I have not used 60min charts on stocks all that
much (do oncommodities though) so this falls in the FWIW department
(meaning littleexperience as to the accuracy).don ewers-----
Original Message -----From: Don Ewers
<dbewers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>To:
<realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>Sent: Wednesday, April 10, 2002 1:05
PMSubject: Re: [RT] AOL> BobKC,> Here is what AGET
is saying on a daily chart FWIW.>> Price is definitely into
some support areas including the MOB's and just> entering the wave 5
target range (I also did an "internal" wave projection> of just wave
5 which shows an even more refineded target range which "may"> come
into play as well).>> Typical trade rules would require a
break of the regression channels orthe> 6/4 ma channels to
trigger a buy. I will look at a 60min to see if it> reveals anything
more in detail. If so I will post it.> don ewers> -----
Original Message -----> From: <bobskc@xxxxxxxxxxxx>> To:
<realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>> Sent: Wednesday, April 10, 2002
12:21 PM> Subject: [RT] AOL>>> > I felt that
a bottom may have been put in for AOL today and bought in at> >
20.33. The 20M new shares was filled without effort and the low
volume> > leveled ... Warner is worth about $22 as a weighted mc
which means AOLis> > free and you get TW at a 10%
discount. Just my thoughts and action..all> > due
diligence in order of course.> >> >
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