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One problem I see in any analysis would be that for many the use of fibs is
centered more around ranges than an exact number where something would turn.
For example, if one were looking at a simple zig-zag ABC correction off a
impulsive move, one would expect wave B retrace "around" 50% of wave A, not
exactly 50% and wave C would roughly equa1 wave A, not "exactly" 1.0 of wave
A.
Here are the "statistical" numbers I was once given by AGET for example.
Wave 2's - 12% held within a 38% retracement of wave 1
- 73% retraced between 50% and 62% of wave 1
- 15% retraced greater than 62%
(Don't ask what happened been 38% and 50%, something is missing there?)
Wave 3's - less than 2% of the time wave 3 is equal to or less than a wave 1
- 45% of the time wave 3 was between 1.60 to 1.75% of wave 1
-30% of the time wave 3 was between 1.75 and 2.62% of wave 1
(so 75% of the time between 1.62 and 2.62)
- 8% of the time wave 3 was greater than 2.62% of wave 1
Wave 4's - 15% of the time retrace between 24 to 30% of wave 3
- 60% of the time retrace between 30 to 50% of wave 3
- 15% of the time retrace between 50 to 62% of wave 3
- 10% of the time retrace greater than 62% of wave 3
Wave 5's - 82% of the time will be between .62 and 1.0 of wave 1 to wave 3
added to wave 4
(or subtracted if a down move)
Whether one uses EW pattern to determine what a move "might be doing" or not
the "ranges" can be helpful and tell one when something is going wrong.
"Ranges" not "exact" fibs.numbers is the point that needs to be considered.
Yes it is great when prices turn right on one be certainly not necessary.
don ewers
----- Original Message -----
From: ztrader <ztrader@xxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Wednesday, April 10, 2002 7:29 AM
Subject: [RT] Fibo predictions
> On Wednesday, April 10, 2002, 4:46:58 AM, Jim White wrote:
>
> JW> the ground rules for the test,
>
> As a start, draw Fib lines on price charts. Draw random lines on the
> same charts. Do the Fib lines have a higher probability of predicting
> turning points than do random lines?
>
> ztrader
>
>
> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
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>
>
>
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>
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