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[RT] Patterns vs random



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(subject changed to reflect topic)

If you will check the RT list archives for late October (around the 27th)
you should find an S&P 500 chart I posted which called for an ABC rally to
correct the decline into the September lows. The chart I posted earlier
today is an updated version of that chart with refinements based on 6 months
of price action. To date, the price pattern has generally followed the
scenario first posted 6+ months ago. I believe I have also posted weekly
bond charts some 3+- months ago showing a probable corrective pattern which
to date has not been violated.

I would never go so far as to claim that price patterns are infallible (I
have posted my share of bum charts), however I believe that price patterns
are no less reliable than other trading methods and provide a major
advantage in telling the trader very early in the game when the assumptions
derived from a pattern are wrong.

Earl

----- Original Message -----
From: "Kent Rollins" <kentr@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Sunday, April 07, 2002 1:08 PM
Subject: Re: Re[2]: [RT] List description: interrogatories



I believe you can draw pretty patterns ex-post-facto on charts but you
cannot draw a geometric pattern on the right edge and trade from there
profitably over any sustained period.  It is not possible to prove that the
patterns won't work.  If you believe you can, the burden of proof is on you.
Put some definitive markets calls over the next 6 months on this list and
perhaps I'll change my stance.


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