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Well that explains alot. and its on previous volume.. good point.
My thursday close on the big contract was 1152.70.
Have a good one.
Don
----- Original Message -----
From: "BobR" <bobrabcd@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Friday, March 22, 2002 5:32 PM
Subject: Re: [RT] S&P Day Trading
> Don my good man, re: 1148.5....
> 1148.5 was Thursday's value area pivot. One of the MP concepts includes a
> test of the previous days main TPO or time price opportunity. Friday's
> value area pivot is 1151 and also the classical pivot, Thursday's close
was
> 1150.5.
>
> bobr
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Don Thompson" <detomps@xxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Friday, March 22, 2002 2:15 PM
> Subject: Re: [RT] S&P Day Trading
>
>
> > Jerry,
> > Actully the ES is traded by quite a few people with a knowledge of
> > statistical relevancy. You have to remember that
> > the Black Scholes equation won a Noble Price in economics in its method
of
> > determining value. The Market Profile
> > is a concept that takes each half hour and asks, "What is the
distribution
> > of the transactions by price in this half hour"
> > Infer what you will from that.
> >
> > I think for me the thing that really tells it, is the volume, where does
> > volume come into play at key resistance and supports.
> > I run, off of a one minute bar chart of ES, a 60 minute average volume.
I
> > plot one and two deviations of this 60 period
> > average. I alarm with a yellow any bar that has tick volume > than +2
> > deviations, blue dot any bar that exceeds one deviation
> > and white arrow any bar that has less than -1 deviation. So then you
have
> > to ask yourself... what happened at the high of the day?
> > It was running into the 50% of a two day range with each successive
thrust
> > being made on less volume, it was a two yellow terminating with a blue
dot
> > at the high. Then a ton of stops were hit when the bulls realized they
> > couldn't sustain a usually bullish .382 retracement of a the
> > previous swing and today's OPEN. Major Yellow arrows .. then notice the
> the
> > rally back up to yestedays close did not make it up on any volume,
> > (Not even a blue dot!) hence it is only traders who were short
covering..
> > Then every bear out there is thinking, HEY, if it can't close up above
> > Thursday's close where is it going to go?.. Hence you see the fatal
white
> > arrow(exhaustion of buying) followed by a yellow arrow of all the sell
> stops
> > and mkt orders being hit.
> > Then another yellow arrow as all the stops are hit on one of the classic
> > pivots. finally a capitulation volume at 1148.50.. I haven't figured
out
> > yet why it stopped at 1148.50.. Probably because it made 80% of the
range
> of
> > the day??? Brighter minds than I know..
> >
> > Don Thompson
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Jerry Swanson" <swanwoods@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Sent: Friday, March 22, 2002 2:10 PM
> > Subject: Re: [RT] S&P Day Trading
> >
> >
> > > Don,
> > >
> > > I have a simple question about the Fibonacci series that I really
> > > never understood and that is the origin of .618 and .382 is any
> > > given number divided by the following number, for .618, and any
> > > number divided by the second following number, for .382. But so
> > > what? I never really understood what that had to do with the
> > > Fibonacci series and for that matter, what they have to do with
> > > trading. Of course, they occur at points of support and resistence
> > > and expansions and contractions from multiple pivots overlap at
> > > major turning points, but, not always, and even then not with
> > > anything that could be called statistically relevant. It seems to
> > > me that in trading, because of rapidly changing market conditions,
> > > there is really very little that is statistically relevant, that is,
> > > very few patterns that are better than random chance. Of course it
> > > is exciting when you pick a top or bottom, but isn't this just a form
> > > of trader's placebo, to borrow a term from medicine?
> > >
> > >
> > > jerry
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > >Ron,
> > > >
> > > >One book that deals with geometric ratios other than the Fibonacci
> > Series.
> > > >Here in you will
> > > >discover that there is more to life than .618 and .382.
> > > >Square Root 2, 3, and 5 and the reciprocals and the expanding and
> > > >contracting of the series.
> > > >
> > > >Bryce Gilmore's first book ( Market Geometry) is a pretty apt
> description
> > of
> > > >the numbers and ratios that are out there that a freely
> > > >traded market will work to. Gilmore is the one who brought the .786
> > > >retracement to view for traders.
> > > >It is left to you to see how it all fits together. So you have a bit
of
> > work
> > > >cut out if you don't have a utility to calculate it easily. In ES
such
> > > >geometry works really good.
> > > >
> > > >His third book, Trading With an Edge, is a pretty good book about how
> he
> > > >thinks, basically he uses his expertise
> > > >in time and price to figure good guess as to current trend in the
> market,
> > > >but when it comes to trading it is all
> > > >pattern and low risk entry. His main point is to find those trades
> with
> > low
> > > >risk and load the boat, since they never
> > > >come back on you. He doesn't hold over night. Also his method is
> pretty
> > > >much pure price with no indicators, just
> > > >the chart.
> > > >
> > > > A good example in ES is in the gif. the scale is the current days
> > range
> > > >at about 1:30,
> > > >the point is that traders on the second rally at 1:30 sold at 1163.50
> > limit.
> > > >The buy stop is one tick above 1164.00 or
> > > >1164.25. So you only risk 3/4 of a point to figure if you are right
or
> > you
> > > >are wrong. This is a low risk entry and
> > > >is a discretionary kind of thing, as far as I know. This is one that
> > will
> > > >come back on you, but the internals were
> > > >pretty grim so probably not. The biggest thing is to be around
> > successful
> > > >traders who are making money in the market
> > > >that you want to trade! It will be really inspiring, and as you
watch
> > them
> > > >work the market, you begin to see that it can be done.
> > > >
> > > >Don Thompson
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >----- Original Message -----
> > > >From: "Jim Johnson" <jejohn@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > >To: "Ron Cernokus" <roncer@xxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > >Cc: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > >Sent: Wednesday, March 20, 2002 7:17 PM
> > > >Subject: Re[2]: [RT] S&P Day Trading
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >> Hello Ron,
> > > >>
> > > >> couple of ideas for you--
> > > >>
> > > >> I trade intraday SP's and have found I've learned most about
> patterns
> > > >> from:
> > > >>
> > > >> Teresa Lo of www.trendvue.com. her chat room is OK for a while.
> her
> > > >> Trader's Manual is very well written, clear, stripped of jargon
and
> > > >> fluff. good stuff on simple patterns and how she trades them.
> > > >>
> > > >> Linda Raschke course (expensive) is very good for that. the
> > > >> StreetSmarts book is only fair for that purpose.
> > > >>
> > > >> Joe Ross's book Trading as a Business has some good stuff but is
> very
> > > >> overpriced i think. his setup patterns are probably better
> explained
> > > >> and used by T Lo above.
> > > >>
> > > >> Nisson or Morris for candlestick formations. a few basic ones are
> all
> > > >> lyou need.
> > > >>
> > > >> Ultimate Trading Guide by Hill, Pruitt and Hill is very good for
> > > >> patterns in the first half of the book especially.
> > > >>
> > > >> Although not geared to patterns only, Trader Vic by Vick Sperandeo
> has
> > > > > some good stuff.
> > > >>
> > > >> I've just begun Alan Farley's Mater Swing Trader but it promises
to
> be
> > > >> very helpful.
> > > >>
> > > >> The one thing I've noticed is that after you strip away all the
cute
> > > >> names etc, many of these chart patterns are old as the markets.
> Many
> > > >> of these current authors are repeating, with the help of
> easy-to-make
> > > >> charts the same stuff old timers like Schabacker, Sklarew,
Wyckoff,
> > > >> Kerr, Dunnigan, Dow described earl in the 20th century.
> Candlesticks
> > > >> are even older.
> > > >>
> > > >> If I could buy only one, it would be Teresa Lo's manual.
> > > > >
> > > >> --
> > > >> Best regards,
> > > >> Jim Johnson
> mailto:jejohn@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > >>
> > > >> Wednesday, March 20, 2002, 6:47:16 PM, you wrote:
> > > >>
> > > >>
> > > >> RC> Don,
> > > >>
> > > >> RC> I also trade in the discretionary style you mentioned here.
> > However I
> > > >> RC> feel the need for better short term pattern recognition
skills.
> > Is
> > > >> RC> there any text that you or other discretionary traders might
> like
> > to
> > > >> RC> recommend for short term pattern recognition. Comments
> > appreciated.
> > > >>
> > > >> RC> Ron
> > > >>
> > > >>
> > > >> RC> Don Thompson wrote:
> > > >> >>
> > > >> >> John,
> > > >> >> Your first catostrophic stop loss is $3000 or 12 S&P Points?
> > Whew..
> > > >that
> > > >> >> takes alot of balls to trade that level of
> > > >> >> a stop. My inclination is to get it down to two points or so..
> no
> > more
> > > >than
> > > >> >> that. I can see you might have to make
> > > >> >> a system do this kind of stop loss if you aren't looking at
the
> > actual
> > > >> >> prices during the day trading it. The
> > > >> >> day traders I know who are successful don't have more than a 2
> > point
> > > >stop
> > > >> >> loss and when in doubt they get out
> > > >> >> at 1 or .50 at best. But they are purely discretionary traders
> that
> > > >work off
> > > >> >> of price and pattern.
> > > >> >>
> > > >> >> Don Thompson
> > > >> >> ----- Original Message -----
> > > >> >> From: "profitok" <profitok@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > >> >> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > >> >> Sent: Wednesday, March 20, 2002 1:52 PM
> > > >> >> Subject: Re: [RT] S&P Day Trading
> > > >> >>
> > > >> >> > hello john
> > > >> >> > I can not see how you can make money if your profit objective
> is
> > > >SMALLER
> > > >> >> > than your stop loss
> > > >> >> > nice day
> > > >> >> > Ben
> > > >> >> > ----- Original Message -----
> > > >> >> > From: "John Cappello" <jvc689@xxxxxxx>
> > > >> >> > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > >> >> > Sent: Wednesday, March 20, 2002 6:44 AM
> > > >> >> > Subject: [RT] S&P Day Trading
> > > >> >> >
> > > >> >> >
> > > >> >> > >
> > > >> >> > > My system has not performed at max this year so far and I
am
> > doing
> > > >> >> > > adjustments to current market conditions mainly related to
> > > >psychology
> > > >> >> > > of the market and ranges. I am still trading it at a low
> > contract
> > > >> >> > > levels 5% of asset allocation. After debugged will step up.
> > > >> >> > >
> > > >> >> > > Adjustments being made.........entry and exits not limited
to
> > Level
> > > >2
> > > >> >> > > and 3 Supports and Resistance.
> > > >> >> > >
> > > >> >> > > Widen trading ranges..............expected today [1179 to
> 1183]
> > > >sell
> > > >> >> > > points [1165 to 1169] buy points. No trade if total range
> > beyond
> > > >> >> > > 1183 to 1165 at open.
> > > >> >> > >
> > > >> >> > > My personal stops are $3000 ; min profit target $2000 ;
> > trailing
> > > >stop
> > > >> >> > > once $1500 profit reached is $750 ; MOC or OCO if tweaked.
> > > >> >> > >
> > > >> >> > > John
> > > >> >> > >
> > > >> >> > >
> > > >> >> > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > > >> >> > > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > >> >> > >
> > > >> >> > >
> > > >> >> > >
> > > >> >> > > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
> > > >> >> http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> > > >> >> > >
> > > >> >> > >
> > > >> >> >
> > > >> >> >
> > > >> >> >
> > > >> >> > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > > >> >> > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > >> >> >
> > > >> >> >
> > > >> >> >
> > > >> >> > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
> > > >http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> > > >> >> >
> > > >> >> >
> > > >> >>
> > > >> >>
> > > >> >> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > > >> >> realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > >> >>
> > > >> >>
> > > >> >>
> > > >> >> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
> > > >http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> > > >>
> > > >>
> > > >> RC> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > > >> RC> realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > >>
> > > >>
> > > >>
> > > >> RC> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
> > > >http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> > > >>
> > > >>
> > > >>
> > > >> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > > >> realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > >>
> > > >>
> > > >>
> > > >> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
> > http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> > > > >
> > > >>
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > > >realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
> http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >Attachment converted: hard drive:snap.gif 33 (GIFf/JVWR) (0003F0FB)
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
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> > >
> >
> >
> > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
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> >
> >
> >
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> >
>
>
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