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Don my good man, re: 1148.5....
1148.5 was Thursday's value area pivot. One of the MP concepts includes a
test of the previous days main TPO or time price opportunity. Friday's
value area pivot is 1151 and also the classical pivot, Thursday's close was
1150.5.
bobr
----- Original Message -----
From: "Don Thompson" <detomps@xxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Friday, March 22, 2002 2:15 PM
Subject: Re: [RT] S&P Day Trading
> Jerry,
> Actully the ES is traded by quite a few people with a knowledge of
> statistical relevancy. You have to remember that
> the Black Scholes equation won a Noble Price in economics in its method of
> determining value. The Market Profile
> is a concept that takes each half hour and asks, "What is the distribution
> of the transactions by price in this half hour"
> Infer what you will from that.
>
> I think for me the thing that really tells it, is the volume, where does
> volume come into play at key resistance and supports.
> I run, off of a one minute bar chart of ES, a 60 minute average volume. I
> plot one and two deviations of this 60 period
> average. I alarm with a yellow any bar that has tick volume > than +2
> deviations, blue dot any bar that exceeds one deviation
> and white arrow any bar that has less than -1 deviation. So then you have
> to ask yourself... what happened at the high of the day?
> It was running into the 50% of a two day range with each successive thrust
> being made on less volume, it was a two yellow terminating with a blue dot
> at the high. Then a ton of stops were hit when the bulls realized they
> couldn't sustain a usually bullish .382 retracement of a the
> previous swing and today's OPEN. Major Yellow arrows .. then notice the
the
> rally back up to yestedays close did not make it up on any volume,
> (Not even a blue dot!) hence it is only traders who were short covering..
> Then every bear out there is thinking, HEY, if it can't close up above
> Thursday's close where is it going to go?.. Hence you see the fatal white
> arrow(exhaustion of buying) followed by a yellow arrow of all the sell
stops
> and mkt orders being hit.
> Then another yellow arrow as all the stops are hit on one of the classic
> pivots. finally a capitulation volume at 1148.50.. I haven't figured out
> yet why it stopped at 1148.50.. Probably because it made 80% of the range
of
> the day??? Brighter minds than I know..
>
> Don Thompson
>
>
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Jerry Swanson" <swanwoods@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Friday, March 22, 2002 2:10 PM
> Subject: Re: [RT] S&P Day Trading
>
>
> > Don,
> >
> > I have a simple question about the Fibonacci series that I really
> > never understood and that is the origin of .618 and .382 is any
> > given number divided by the following number, for .618, and any
> > number divided by the second following number, for .382. But so
> > what? I never really understood what that had to do with the
> > Fibonacci series and for that matter, what they have to do with
> > trading. Of course, they occur at points of support and resistence
> > and expansions and contractions from multiple pivots overlap at
> > major turning points, but, not always, and even then not with
> > anything that could be called statistically relevant. It seems to
> > me that in trading, because of rapidly changing market conditions,
> > there is really very little that is statistically relevant, that is,
> > very few patterns that are better than random chance. Of course it
> > is exciting when you pick a top or bottom, but isn't this just a form
> > of trader's placebo, to borrow a term from medicine?
> >
> >
> > jerry
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > >Ron,
> > >
> > >One book that deals with geometric ratios other than the Fibonacci
> Series.
> > >Here in you will
> > >discover that there is more to life than .618 and .382.
> > >Square Root 2, 3, and 5 and the reciprocals and the expanding and
> > >contracting of the series.
> > >
> > >Bryce Gilmore's first book ( Market Geometry) is a pretty apt
description
> of
> > >the numbers and ratios that are out there that a freely
> > >traded market will work to. Gilmore is the one who brought the .786
> > >retracement to view for traders.
> > >It is left to you to see how it all fits together. So you have a bit of
> work
> > >cut out if you don't have a utility to calculate it easily. In ES such
> > >geometry works really good.
> > >
> > >His third book, Trading With an Edge, is a pretty good book about how
he
> > >thinks, basically he uses his expertise
> > >in time and price to figure good guess as to current trend in the
market,
> > >but when it comes to trading it is all
> > >pattern and low risk entry. His main point is to find those trades
with
> low
> > >risk and load the boat, since they never
> > >come back on you. He doesn't hold over night. Also his method is
pretty
> > >much pure price with no indicators, just
> > >the chart.
> > >
> > > A good example in ES is in the gif. the scale is the current days
> range
> > >at about 1:30,
> > >the point is that traders on the second rally at 1:30 sold at 1163.50
> limit.
> > >The buy stop is one tick above 1164.00 or
> > >1164.25. So you only risk 3/4 of a point to figure if you are right or
> you
> > >are wrong. This is a low risk entry and
> > >is a discretionary kind of thing, as far as I know. This is one that
> will
> > >come back on you, but the internals were
> > >pretty grim so probably not. The biggest thing is to be around
> successful
> > >traders who are making money in the market
> > >that you want to trade! It will be really inspiring, and as you watch
> them
> > >work the market, you begin to see that it can be done.
> > >
> > >Don Thompson
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >----- Original Message -----
> > >From: "Jim Johnson" <jejohn@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > >To: "Ron Cernokus" <roncer@xxxxxxxxxxx>
> > >Cc: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > >Sent: Wednesday, March 20, 2002 7:17 PM
> > >Subject: Re[2]: [RT] S&P Day Trading
> > >
> > >
> > >> Hello Ron,
> > >>
> > >> couple of ideas for you--
> > >>
> > >> I trade intraday SP's and have found I've learned most about
patterns
> > >> from:
> > >>
> > >> Teresa Lo of www.trendvue.com. her chat room is OK for a while.
her
> > >> Trader's Manual is very well written, clear, stripped of jargon and
> > >> fluff. good stuff on simple patterns and how she trades them.
> > >>
> > >> Linda Raschke course (expensive) is very good for that. the
> > >> StreetSmarts book is only fair for that purpose.
> > >>
> > >> Joe Ross's book Trading as a Business has some good stuff but is
very
> > >> overpriced i think. his setup patterns are probably better
explained
> > >> and used by T Lo above.
> > >>
> > >> Nisson or Morris for candlestick formations. a few basic ones are
all
> > >> lyou need.
> > >>
> > >> Ultimate Trading Guide by Hill, Pruitt and Hill is very good for
> > >> patterns in the first half of the book especially.
> > >>
> > >> Although not geared to patterns only, Trader Vic by Vick Sperandeo
has
> > > > some good stuff.
> > >>
> > >> I've just begun Alan Farley's Mater Swing Trader but it promises to
be
> > >> very helpful.
> > >>
> > >> The one thing I've noticed is that after you strip away all the cute
> > >> names etc, many of these chart patterns are old as the markets.
Many
> > >> of these current authors are repeating, with the help of
easy-to-make
> > >> charts the same stuff old timers like Schabacker, Sklarew, Wyckoff,
> > >> Kerr, Dunnigan, Dow described earl in the 20th century.
Candlesticks
> > >> are even older.
> > >>
> > >> If I could buy only one, it would be Teresa Lo's manual.
> > > >
> > >> --
> > >> Best regards,
> > >> Jim Johnson
mailto:jejohn@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > >>
> > >> Wednesday, March 20, 2002, 6:47:16 PM, you wrote:
> > >>
> > >>
> > >> RC> Don,
> > >>
> > >> RC> I also trade in the discretionary style you mentioned here.
> However I
> > >> RC> feel the need for better short term pattern recognition skills.
> Is
> > >> RC> there any text that you or other discretionary traders might
like
> to
> > >> RC> recommend for short term pattern recognition. Comments
> appreciated.
> > >>
> > >> RC> Ron
> > >>
> > >>
> > >> RC> Don Thompson wrote:
> > >> >>
> > >> >> John,
> > >> >> Your first catostrophic stop loss is $3000 or 12 S&P Points?
> Whew..
> > >that
> > >> >> takes alot of balls to trade that level of
> > >> >> a stop. My inclination is to get it down to two points or so..
no
> more
> > >than
> > >> >> that. I can see you might have to make
> > >> >> a system do this kind of stop loss if you aren't looking at the
> actual
> > >> >> prices during the day trading it. The
> > >> >> day traders I know who are successful don't have more than a 2
> point
> > >stop
> > >> >> loss and when in doubt they get out
> > >> >> at 1 or .50 at best. But they are purely discretionary traders
that
> > >work off
> > >> >> of price and pattern.
> > >> >>
> > >> >> Don Thompson
> > >> >> ----- Original Message -----
> > >> >> From: "profitok" <profitok@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > >> >> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > >> >> Sent: Wednesday, March 20, 2002 1:52 PM
> > >> >> Subject: Re: [RT] S&P Day Trading
> > >> >>
> > >> >> > hello john
> > >> >> > I can not see how you can make money if your profit objective
is
> > >SMALLER
> > >> >> > than your stop loss
> > >> >> > nice day
> > >> >> > Ben
> > >> >> > ----- Original Message -----
> > >> >> > From: "John Cappello" <jvc689@xxxxxxx>
> > >> >> > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > >> >> > Sent: Wednesday, March 20, 2002 6:44 AM
> > >> >> > Subject: [RT] S&P Day Trading
> > >> >> >
> > >> >> >
> > >> >> > >
> > >> >> > > My system has not performed at max this year so far and I am
> doing
> > >> >> > > adjustments to current market conditions mainly related to
> > >psychology
> > >> >> > > of the market and ranges. I am still trading it at a low
> contract
> > >> >> > > levels 5% of asset allocation. After debugged will step up.
> > >> >> > >
> > >> >> > > Adjustments being made.........entry and exits not limited to
> Level
> > >2
> > >> >> > > and 3 Supports and Resistance.
> > >> >> > >
> > >> >> > > Widen trading ranges..............expected today [1179 to
1183]
> > >sell
> > >> >> > > points [1165 to 1169] buy points. No trade if total range
> beyond
> > >> >> > > 1183 to 1165 at open.
> > >> >> > >
> > >> >> > > My personal stops are $3000 ; min profit target $2000 ;
> trailing
> > >stop
> > >> >> > > once $1500 profit reached is $750 ; MOC or OCO if tweaked.
> > >> >> > >
> > >> >> > > John
> > >> >> > >
> > >> >> > >
> > >> >> > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > >> >> > > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > >> >> > >
> > >> >> > >
> > >> >> > >
> > >> >> > > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
> > >> >> http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> > >> >> > >
> > >> >> > >
> > >> >> >
> > >> >> >
> > >> >> >
> > >> >> > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > >> >> > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > >> >> >
> > >> >> >
> > >> >> >
> > >> >> > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
> > >http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> > >> >> >
> > >> >> >
> > >> >>
> > >> >>
> > >> >> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > >> >> realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > >> >>
> > >> >>
> > >> >>
> > >> >> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
> > >http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> > >>
> > >>
> > >> RC> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > >> RC> realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > >>
> > >>
> > >>
> > >> RC> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
> > >http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> > >>
> > >>
> > >>
> > >> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > >> realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > >>
> > >>
> > >>
> > >> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
> http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> > > >
> > >>
> > >
> > >
> > >To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > >realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> > >
> > >
> > >Attachment converted: hard drive:snap.gif 33 (GIFf/JVWR) (0003F0FB)
> >
> >
> >
> > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >
> >
> >
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http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> >
> >
>
>
> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
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>
>
>
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>
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Attachment:
Description: "1148.GIF"
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