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Hi
Dom,
<SPAN
class=071164512-15032002>
my
heart and mind was all set to write 60%, rounded from 59.8 which was the
number that OptionVue gave for your short straddle, but my fingers
wrote 30, for what reason I know not. Sorry about that. See attached for the
probabilities pertaining to your position.
<SPAN
class=071164512-15032002>
I
would indeed consider a probability of profit of 60% to be OK for this type
of trade. Though that number is not cast in concrete, either. For one
thing, the probability refers to the current statistical volatility of 32%, and
would vary inversely with it. If volatilities were to increase, it would
hurt the probability of profit; if they were to collapse, it would benefit it.
Furthermore, a probability figure cannot take into account possible adjustments
or roll-overs of the straddle. So that number is to be taken with a grain
of salt.
<SPAN
class=071164512-15032002><FONT face="Trebuchet MS"
color=#000080>
Best
regards,
<SPAN
class=071164512-15032002>
<SPAN
class=071164512-15032002>Michael Suesserott
<SPAN
class=071164512-15032002>
<SPAN
class=071164512-15032002>
<SPAN
class=071164512-15032002> -----Ursprüngliche
Nachricht-----Von: Dom
[mailto:domenick@xxxxxxxxxxxx]Gesendet: Friday, March 15, 2002
05:28An: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxBetreff: Re: [RT]
spread on ibm
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000080 2px solid">
Hi Mike,
This trade selling 25 april ibm 105
calls and selling 25 april ibm 105 puts for a gross credit of 45,000.00
backed by cash which is collecting approximately 5% in Ginmae , is not
set in stone. When I deem appropriate I will sell more puts or calls
depending on where ibm is at.
The next cycle is for 25 days. In
the last 25 days ibm highest close was
109.28 and the lowest close was 96.38.The beginning profit range (not counting
future selling) is 96.00 to 114.00. With possible more selling at around
the 110.00 and/or 100.00 areas.will bring the 96.00 lower and the 114
higher.
With the highest close in last 25
days being 109.28 and the lowest close being 96.38 on ibm , I don't
understand how you can get only a 30% profit probability, which you consider
good. I think a 30 % profit possibility is low. The trade is done and I
know it will be profitable.Option Vue does not agree. Check out option vue by
telling it the spread was bought rather than sold. It should come up with 70
%profit probability. The reciprical of 30%.
Best regards,
Dom
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
<A title=MikeSuesserott@xxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:MikeSuesserott@xxxxxxxxxxx";>MikeSuesserott@xxxxxxxxxxx
To: <A
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Thursday, March 14, 2002 4:32
PM
Subject: [RT] spread on ibm
<SPAN
class=048215020-14032002>Hello Dom,
<SPAN
class=048215020-14032002>
<SPAN
class=048215020-14032002>I agree that the theoretical range would be 101 -
109. Including moderate slippage and commissions, OptionVue gives 101.23 -
108.77. See attached. In the lower left corner you'll find the other
numbers, 13% probability of profit and a mathematical expectation of
-0.91 points at current prices. This shows that this "conservative approach"
is conservative only in that losses are limited; unfortunately, they are
also almost certain (87% probability).
<SPAN
class=048215020-14032002>
<SPAN
class=048215020-14032002>Dom, the strategy you suggest - the sale of a
straddle - is fundamentally sound, and by placing your stops at 96 and
114 you attain a 30% probability of profit at current volatilities, which is
OK for that type of trade. The problem was simply that in trying to be extra
conservative you suggested "insurance" (the long options); that insurance
was so expensive that the position had hardly any chance left to become a
winner.
<SPAN
class=048215020-14032002>
<SPAN
class=048215020-14032002>Best regards,
<SPAN
class=048215020-14032002>
<SPAN
class=048215020-14032002>Michael Suesserott
<SPAN
class=048215020-14032002>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000080 2px solid">
<FONT face=Tahoma
size=2>-----Ursprüngliche Nachricht-----Von: Dom
[mailto:domenick@xxxxxxxxxxxx]Gesendet: Thursday, March 14,
2002 21:32An: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxBetreff:
Re: [RT] spread on ibm
Hello Mike,
I do this as a
collar spread. I sell the put and the call. Net credit of 9.00. The profit
range for ibm would be between 96.00 to 114.00. I place stops at 96.00 and
114.00.
I presented a most
conservative approach. With this conservative approach the profit range
would be 101 and 109. These figures would be 105.00 strike
plus/minus the 4.00 credit=101.00 and 109.00. How did you get 102
and 108?
Best regards,
Dom
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
<A title=MikeSuesserott@xxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:MikeSuesserott@xxxxxxxxxxx";>MikeSuesserott@xxxxxxxxxxx
To: <A
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Thursday, March 14, 2002 2:37
PM
Subject: [RT] spread on ibm
<FONT face="Trebuchet MS"
color=#000080>Hi Dom,
<SPAN
class=541315818-14032002>
<SPAN
class=541315818-14032002>no offense, I hope, but the trade you suggest
here is not very promising, IMHO. The risk/reward of 1 to 4 sounds
good; however, this is not the correct number by which to evaluate this
spread, for the simple reason that the attainment of that profit is very
unlikely. Probability
calculations bear this out. To wit:
<SPAN
class=541315818-14032002>
<SPAN
class=541315818-14032002>The range of profitability of this spread is
extremely limited - only between, roughly, 102 and 108, which is a
very small range for IBM to be in at expiration. If you exit the spread
earlier, that range will be even smaller. In consequence, p<SPAN
class=541315818-14032002>robability of profit is only 13%, and
the mathematical expectation of the trade is negative, -0.72
points. Should volatility increase, those numbers will be even
worse.
<SPAN
class=541315818-14032002>
<FONT face="Trebuchet MS"
color=#000080>Why do a trade for which the probabilities are so
unfavorable right from the outset?
<SPAN
class=541315818-14032002>
<FONT face="Trebuchet MS"
color=#000080>Regards,
<SPAN
class=541315818-14032002>
<FONT face="Trebuchet MS"
color=#000080>Michael Suesserott
<SPAN
class=541315818-14032002>
<SPAN
class=541315818-14032002>
<SPAN
class=541315818-14032002> -----Ursprüngliche
Nachricht-----Von: Dom
[mailto:domenick@xxxxxxxxxxxx]Gesendet: Thursday, March 14,
2002 17:27An: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxBetreff:
[RT] Re: spread on ibm
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000080 2px solid">
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
<A title=domenick@xxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:domenick@xxxxxxxxxxxx";>Dom
To: <A
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Thursday, March 14, 2002
11:24 AM
Subject: spread on ibm
Here is spread that can be done now
with good risk/reward .
sell ibm 105 april put and sell 105
april call. buy the april 100 put and buy the
april 110 call. total credit +4
Max. loss -1 max gain
+4 or anywhere in
between.
If comfortable using stops pocket
total premium of +9., place stops at 100 and 110. For myself I would
use choice.
<FONT face=Arial
size=2>Dom
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