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On Thursday, February 21, 2002, 1:55:33 PM, charles meyer wrote:
cm> A big problem with this delta stuff is that by the time you say
cm> inversions are possible and that your accuracy is 1/3 days you
cm> will find that it looks like delta is predicting things when it
cm> really is not.
Yep. Delta makes a lot of predictions. When you add the 3-day slop,
the probability comes out about chance. Several years ago I worked out
the numbers in detail. Since they were so poor, I sent the work to WW,
asking for anything he had that would alter my analysis or point out
any errors I might have made - after all, he claimed to have done a
lot of work on the method. He wrote back and admitted he could not, so
the results still seem valid. Check the stats yourself, and then
decide.
ztrader
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