[RT] Avoiding Doing Something First

[ric ingram <ringram@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

Hi,
Imagine you have identified a particular market behaviour in your
favourite market.
The behaviour occurs about once or twice a day, and is readily
identified.   A particular follow-up behaviour of your market
occurs with an almost uncanny 80% probability.
You design a trading system to exploit these regular behaviours and their
common follow-up behaviours.    You paper trade this for a
few months, back-test on 25 years data and feel you can make some
money.
You trade your system with real money, starting with very small units,
find there are some unexpected difficulties and you:
        -       partly
overcome the difficulties,
        -       start
making some money,
        -       increase
your trade size steadily,
        -       have,
on average 5 profitable trades a week,
        -       have,
on average 3 losing trades a week,
        -       make
good money after expenses.
Would you feel any compulsion or need to share your market behaviours or
trading ideas with other traders with a view to helping others or getting
improvements suggested by others?   Maybe.
Would you find value in sharing example trades/series of trades for the
purpose of illustrating your system?   Maybe.
As you have many winning trades a week, would you feel any compulsion or
need to share an individual planned or successfully completed trade with
others for obtaining emotional strokes?    No.
As you have many losing trades a week, would you feel any compulsion or
need to share an individual failed trade with others for obtaining
emotional strokes?    No.
So when you see others talking about one great victory or giving a trade
forecast or detailing a big losing trade they have made, what does this
tell you?
Perhaps it suggests that they have avoided doing several things
first:
        -       identifying
their favourite market behaviours,
        -       designing
a trading system to exploit them,
        -       thoroughly
paper testing it on reasonably extensive data,
        -       trying
it with real money using a small trade size,
        -       refining
their trading system,
        -       making
some money,
        -       increasing
trade size,
        -       looking
for improvements.
Probably they have not done what you have done.
And they take a suggestion that something else needs to be done first as
a challenge or a rejection.
But what a suggestion to do something else first may in reality be a
constructive and well-intended description of the others
needs.    
But, if not taken as such, this does not change the intention.
Unconditional regards, Ric.
www.traderscalm.com







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