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You pose a common puzzle..
His own 80% performance, and his trading statements are irrelevant.
Even if he provided statements which show that performance, you could not
take them at face value. Are they "doctored"? Do they represent only
trades made consistently with this methodology? Did he have a few
trades which make a big difference to his $$ results? Do the statements
cover a period of more volatility than the current markets? Was it
during the past bull market? As we all know, the past is not the same
as the future. Could he even duplicate his own performance in the
future? His statements would tell you nothing, in the end.
Here is a humorous analogy.. Say I presented you with a calendar of
how often I hopped into the sack with my darling. (This would have
to be an intraday-chart for sure! ha! ) Do you think you could have the same
degree of bliss with her? You are not me, so my "performance" is not
going to be the same as yours. Just because I do well with her, doesn't
mean you will.
He may achieve 80% win-loss while you do poorly with the same
methodology. You may achieve 75% with a completely different
methodology while the person teaching it to you only achieves
28%.
The statistics are quite meaningless.
Even if he can maintain 80% successful trades, and even if he can
teach you what he does, even if he actually does teach what he
does, you most likely will not be able to duplicate his performance.
Unless it is a totally mechanical system, you can't hope to duplicate
his trades. As a human you will introduce your own personality into
the trades, your performance will be different. Ask that lady in the sack..
It is VERY unlikely to be a mechanical system if he does
achieve 80% win-loss. Mechanical systems typically have a much
worse performance. It's certainly not a mechanical system if it achieves
that performance and only costs you $2000.. Such a mechanical
system would be priceless.
You need a less expensive way to explore his methodology, to see if
you are suited to it. This is most important.
You will never know what your performance will be until you trade that
methodology.
Ask his past students about their performance, and what the methodology
entails. Do this until you can get a sense of whether the methodology
may be compatible with your personality. Even then you can't be sure.
After learning the methodology, TRADE SMALL. Take only small positions
until you can prove to yourself that you are good at that methodology.
That may be the best $2000 you ever spent. Or it may be a waste. The
statistics have no bearing on this.
Phew! That's enough for now, I'd better stop before people start calling me
"Ric". This is about as wordy as his random rambling drivel! Apologies to
the list.
-Neal.
At 08:34 AM 2/12/2002 -0700, you wrote:
>There is a guy traveling around giving classes for his Natinal Institute of
>Commodity Training from Lexington, Kentucky. He promises 80% successful
>trades. He charges about $2000 for a class. Can anyone say what this guys
>system is or what his 10 conditions are. Thanks
>
>
>
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