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Very well put!!!
Ira Tunik <irat@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:
If you trade technically It can be 80% art or 80% science, depending upon the system you have put together. Everything listed below by Ben is only partially true. Many will have an immediate effect that will last an hour or a couple of days, others can have an extended effect. Some will cause certain technicians to buy and others to stay on the side lines waiting for another indicator to fall into line. One must remember that the market is based totally on the greater fool theory. There is absolutely not benefit in owning stock unless you are receiving some type of payment for your ownership like a dividend or that you feel that someone will pay you a higher price for the stock then you paid. It has nothing to do with earnings because you can take two identical companies in exactly the same position, yet one will be trading substantially higher then the other. The reason is that one is followed and touted by the advisors, gurus, and brokerage firms and the other is not. The key to a stocks performance is perception. You buy because you have something influencing your perception of what the stock will do. People are buying millions of shares a day in stocks like GX that could go bankrupt tomorrow. For every sale in KMart there was a buyer. There were buyers of Enron until they stopped trading in the stock. Is it greed? Partially. It is the perception that good things will happen and that some fool out there will pay a higher price then this fool did. Whether it is earnings, a political event, a new product, or a change in management, it takes someone that is touting that stock to create a perception that it will go higher. They will even give you a price that you can expect the stock to reach. Now if that price was fact, why would someone buy the stock at that price when the guru that recommended it said that this price was all that the stock was worth. One will use PE ratios to justify their price target, another will use cash flow or debt ratios, return on assets or products in the pipeline or some other smoke and mirrors reason to buy and each will come up with a different target price. Who is right and who is wrong. There is no right or wrong in this matter. If you are trying to justify a purchase then something is wrong with the purchase. If you are looking for others that are in the same boat you are to support your position, then you have done something wrong. It has been shown that a monkey throwing darts at the financial pages can do better then the majority of stock pickers, so as a last resort, buy a monkey, throw away the organ grinder and buy a set of darts. Then join the rest of us and let us know how you are doing. Hope that all had a good week end. Ira.
profitok wrote:
Hello Jasonto feel the market is an art not all scienceit is like trying to solve a puzzleyou look at every part of the picture to find hints to give you the right directionthe market is made from a few partsa: influence of political aspectsb: international marketsc: market confidence leveld: market overbought/ oversolde price levels broken up /broken downf cycles/astrology related/ fib/ Gann relatedg how high is fear or greedh how low or high is interest rates in relationship to current economic conditionsI how is the latest trend in earnings and earnings momentumj how strong is the rate of change and momentum in prices?we look at all the clues and find a MAJORITYand THAT is what we vote forthere is NO way for me to give in a 3 line statement all my reasons for a market call but try to hint you in the right directionand I just like Carl had many times an egg in my face,,BUT I survived to learn a lesson that the market is a wild animal and if you get too friendly to it it will come and bite(or keep losing money),,so I TRY to include all my BEST effortbest regardsBen
----- Original Message -----
From: jseaton357@xxxxxxx
To: gannsghost@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Monday, January 21, 2002 12:31 PM
Subject: Re: [gannsghost] Digest Number 602 In a message dated 1/21/02 11:18:14 AM Eastern Standard Time, gannsghost@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx writes:
next week is a seasonality strong week so making a lower low is HIGHLY unlikely the last week of the month best regards
Interestingly last week was supposed to be seaonally biased upward. I wrote it down b/c it worked great last year: the seasonality was that 93% of the time the SP was up Jan 12-18 and yet the opposite occurred last week! -Jason
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