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If you trade technically It can be 80% art or 80% science, depending
upon the system you have put together. Everything listed below by
Ben is only partially true. Many will have an immediate effect that will
last an hour or a couple of days, others can have an extended effect.
Some will cause certain technicians to buy and others to stay on the side
lines waiting for another indicator to fall into line. One must remember
that the market is based totally on the greater fool theory. There
is absolutely not benefit in owning stock unless you are receiving some
type of payment for your ownership like a dividend or that you feel
that someone will pay you a higher price for the stock then you paid.
It has nothing to do with earnings because you can take two identical companies
in exactly the same position, yet one will be trading substantially higher
then the other. The reason is that one is followed and touted by
the advisors, gurus, and brokerage firms and the other is not. The key
to a stocks performance is perception. You buy because you have something
influencing your perception of what the stock will do. People are
buying millions of shares a day in stocks like GX that could go bankrupt
tomorrow. For every sale in KMart there was a buyer. There
were buyers of Enron until they stopped trading in the stock. Is
it greed? Partially. It is the perception that good things will happen
and that some fool out there will pay a higher price then this fool did.
Whether it is earnings, a political event, a new product, or a change in
management, it takes someone that is touting that stock to create a perception
that it will go higher. They will even give you a price that you
can expect the stock to reach. Now if that price was fact, why would
someone buy the stock at that price when the guru that recommended
it said that this price was all that the stock was worth. One will
use PE ratios to justify their price target, another will use cash flow
or debt ratios, return on assets or products in the pipeline or some other
smoke and mirrors reason to buy and each will come up with a different
target price. Who is right and who is wrong. There is no right
or wrong in this matter. If you are trying to justify a purchase
then something is wrong with the purchase. If you are looking for
others that are in the same boat you are to support your position, then
you have done something wrong. It has been shown that a monkey throwing
darts at the financial pages can do better then the majority of stock pickers,
so as a last resort, buy a monkey, throw away the organ grinder and buy
a set of darts. Then join the rest of us and let us know how you
are doing. Hope that all had a good week end. Ira.
profitok wrote:
Hello Jasonto
feel the market is an art not all scienceit is like
trying to solve a puzzleyou look at every part of
the picture to find hints to give you the right directionthe
market is made from a few partsa: influence
of political aspectsb: international marketsc:
market confidence leveld: market overbought/
oversolde price levels broken up
/broken downf cycles/astrology related/
fib/ Gann relatedg how high is fear or greedh
how low or high is interest rates in relationship to
current economic conditionsI how is the
latest trend in earnings and earnings momentumj
how strong is the rate of change and momentum in prices?we
look at all the clues and find a MAJORITYand
THAT is what we vote forthere is NO way
for me to give in a 3 line statement all my reasons for
a market call but try to hint you in the right directionand
I just like Carl had many times an egg in my face,,BUT
I survived to learn a lesson that the market is a wild animal and
if you get too friendly to it it will come and bite(or keep losing
money),,so I TRY to include all my
BEST effortbest regardsBen
<blockquote
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
----- Original Message -----
<div
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
jseaton357@xxxxxxx
To: gannsghost@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Monday, January 21, 2002 12:31
PM
Subject: Re: [gannsghost] Digest Number
602
In a message dated 1/21/02
11:18:14 AM Eastern Standard Time, gannsghost@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
writes:
<blockquote
style="PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #0000ff 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px"
TYPE="CITE">next
week is a seasonality strong week so making a lower low is HIGHLY
unlikely the last week of the month
best regards
Interestingly last week was
supposed to be seaonally biased upward. I wrote it down b/c it worked
great last year: the seasonality was that 93% of the time the SP was up
Jan 12-18 and yet the opposite occurred last week!
-Jason
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