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Re: [RT] 401k Reaction



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Daniel,

 Please see replies below.

----- Original Message -----
From: "Daniel Goncharoff" <thegonch@xxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Friday, January 18, 2002 7:50 PM
Subject: [RT] 401k Reaction


> I notice the general media is starting to concentrate on the harm
> suffered by Enron employees that had large investments in company stock
> in their 401k and were burned when the manager was changed (freezing the
> accounts) at the same time the stock plummeted to almost nothing. Advice
> is being given for employees of other companies to look at their own
> 401k and diversify.

NW: I didn't own any Enron until they were going to file Chatper 11 and then
I went long in my 401 K at 30 cents per share. I am still holding it.
Looking for a nice homerun for my retirement or lose a small amount.
>
> My gut reaction is that this has to be bad for stocks and good for
> bonds, given the current condition of the stock market and the likely
> conservatism of the 401k holders. (Once you have made the decision to
> diversify, are you really likely to do so in a risky fashion?)

NW: I don't think it will matter much. People will find a way to do what
they want to do despite the govt. BS.  Usually, the more the govt. tries to
protect us, the more they hurt us. The answer to the 401-K problem is simply
education. Everyone should get a pamphlet explaining what they should and
reasonable risk manaagement when they open their account.
>
> Does anyone have any thoughts about how individual stocks may be
> affected? I would think recently successful companies will be more prone
> to being 'diversified down', companies that have done very well over the
> last 3-5 years. These companies will be more prone to having created
> large involuntary concentrations of risk for their employees accounts.
>
> The ultimate example may be MSFT, which has continued to make its
> employees very wealthy, has been successful in any reasonable time frame
> you choose, and is now subject to ongoing legal action of indeterminate
> size. Would you keep you millions in retirement dough in MSFT stock, or
> would you, in light of the Enron case, look to sell MSFT and put your
> money elsewhere?

NW: The question you are asking really has more to do with social climate
than anythnig.  In the 1960s, there was a nice bull market and everyone
loved business and the stock market.  By the early 70s, the market had a big
correction and the climate had turned to being anti-business. Major
corporations had to apologize for making money. Ever heard of "windfall
profits"? .  Quality of earnings, in the 70s, was also a major issue.   Same
is true now.  Everything needs to be analyzed in the context of pre-bubble
top and post-bubble top.
>
> Your thoughts would be appreciated

NW: You're welcome.

Cheers,

Norman


>
> Regards
> DanG
>
>
>
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