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Let me add Earl that academic research I saw recently showed a high
correlation between volatility and recessionary periods. This may be good
for the trading crowd, but not good for long term investors.
Also, be careful about previous correlations between stock returns and bond
returns.......especially given the incredibly steep yield curve right
now......
thus, if bond prices continue to decline at this point, equity prices may
falter as well.
This would be an awful "nowhere to go" scenario for the long term crowd.
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Earl Adamy [mailto:eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx]
> Sent: Saturday, January 05, 2002 6:59 PM
> To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: Re: [RT] Ebay new targets
>
>
> Wow ... tough question! The short answer is that the equity
> markets continue
> to scare the hell out of me from an investment standpoint ... the bubble
> seems to have been resurrected by unlimited liquidity. Contrary to all of
> the puke on TV, new bull markets do not begin from such extended
> valuations
> and talk of forward earnings 2 years out ... they start from depressed
> levels, real fear, and talk of trailing earnings. I think this bubble will
> come to the same end as the last or worse. The very best case I see for
> equities is a 10-15 year wide and deep trading range (e.g. 1966-82) during
> which earnings catch up with valuations.
>
> I think bonds will continue to take some heat, especially if this flood of
> liquidity pumps inflation, however I expect that bond market returns over
> the next 10 years will likely outpace equities. I have heavy long term
> treasury bond positions and look to sell a little on rallies and
> buy more on
> dips to shift average yield to what I expect will be the high end of a
> 4.5-6.5% range. I have recently added to modest positions in an
> intermediate
> term fund which holds high quality corporates to get a "kicker" from the
> bubble ... looking for appreciation due to spread compression. I'm not rah
> rah over bond funds but the yields in money market funds stink and the 4%
> yield differential warrants the risk.
>
> On a short term _trading_ basis (say 2-3 months), I remain
> bullish on index
> futures and I'm bearish on bonds.
>
> Earl
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "sue crew" <screwy@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Saturday, January 05, 2002 3:59 PM
> Subject: Re: [RT] Ebay new targets
>
>
> > Earl,
> >
> > what is your overall view on bond and equity markets from here
> - say a 12
> month
> > view
> >
> > cheers
> >
> > sue
> >
> > Earl Adamy wrote:
> >
> > > Gotta be kidding .... I don't recall that she ever threw in
> the towel on
> her
> > > first short recommendation when it ran up to 72+- from 55+-.
> > >
> > > Earl
> > >
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: <SLAWEKP@xxxxxxx>
> > > To: <REALTRADERS@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > Sent: Wednesday, January 02, 2002 10:38 PM
> > > Subject: [RT] Ebay new targets
> > >
> > > > Dorothy Carter (former member) ask me to forward new
> downside targets
> to
> > > RT.
> > > > group
> > > >
> > > > New target given to 50.46..(would have to get above 68.50 to call
> target
> > > > into question)...pass it on to (RT) if you want..
> > > >
> > > > slawek
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
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> > > >
> > > >
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> > > >
> > > >
> > >
> > >
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