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Wow ... tough question! The short answer is that the equity markets continue
to scare the hell out of me from an investment standpoint ... the bubble
seems to have been resurrected by unlimited liquidity. Contrary to all of
the puke on TV, new bull markets do not begin from such extended valuations
and talk of forward earnings 2 years out ... they start from depressed
levels, real fear, and talk of trailing earnings. I think this bubble will
come to the same end as the last or worse. The very best case I see for
equities is a 10-15 year wide and deep trading range (e.g. 1966-82) during
which earnings catch up with valuations.
I think bonds will continue to take some heat, especially if this flood of
liquidity pumps inflation, however I expect that bond market returns over
the next 10 years will likely outpace equities. I have heavy long term
treasury bond positions and look to sell a little on rallies and buy more on
dips to shift average yield to what I expect will be the high end of a
4.5-6.5% range. I have recently added to modest positions in an intermediate
term fund which holds high quality corporates to get a "kicker" from the
bubble ... looking for appreciation due to spread compression. I'm not rah
rah over bond funds but the yields in money market funds stink and the 4%
yield differential warrants the risk.
On a short term _trading_ basis (say 2-3 months), I remain bullish on index
futures and I'm bearish on bonds.
Earl
----- Original Message -----
From: "sue crew" <screwy@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Saturday, January 05, 2002 3:59 PM
Subject: Re: [RT] Ebay new targets
> Earl,
>
> what is your overall view on bond and equity markets from here - say a 12
month
> view
>
> cheers
>
> sue
>
> Earl Adamy wrote:
>
> > Gotta be kidding .... I don't recall that she ever threw in the towel on
her
> > first short recommendation when it ran up to 72+- from 55+-.
> >
> > Earl
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: <SLAWEKP@xxxxxxx>
> > To: <REALTRADERS@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Sent: Wednesday, January 02, 2002 10:38 PM
> > Subject: [RT] Ebay new targets
> >
> > > Dorothy Carter (former member) ask me to forward new downside targets
to
> > RT.
> > > group
> > >
> > > New target given to 50.46..(would have to get above 68.50 to call
target
> > > into question)...pass it on to (RT) if you want..
> > >
> > > slawek
> > >
> > >
> > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > >
> > >
> > >
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http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> > >
> > >
> > >
> >
> >
> > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
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> >
> >
> >
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>
>
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>
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