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This is great
thanks Earl
Earl Adamy wrote:
> Wow ... tough question! The short answer is that the equity markets continue
> to scare the hell out of me from an investment standpoint ... the bubble
> seems to have been resurrected by unlimited liquidity. Contrary to all of
> the puke on TV, new bull markets do not begin from such extended valuations
> and talk of forward earnings 2 years out ... they start from depressed
> levels, real fear, and talk of trailing earnings. I think this bubble will
> come to the same end as the last or worse. The very best case I see for
> equities is a 10-15 year wide and deep trading range (e.g. 1966-82) during
> which earnings catch up with valuations.
>
> I think bonds will continue to take some heat, especially if this flood of
> liquidity pumps inflation, however I expect that bond market returns over
> the next 10 years will likely outpace equities. I have heavy long term
> treasury bond positions and look to sell a little on rallies and buy more on
> dips to shift average yield to what I expect will be the high end of a
> 4.5-6.5% range. I have recently added to modest positions in an intermediate
> term fund which holds high quality corporates to get a "kicker" from the
> bubble ... looking for appreciation due to spread compression. I'm not rah
> rah over bond funds but the yields in money market funds stink and the 4%
> yield differential warrants the risk.
>
> On a short term _trading_ basis (say 2-3 months), I remain bullish on index
> futures and I'm bearish on bonds.
>
> Earl
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "sue crew" <screwy@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Saturday, January 05, 2002 3:59 PM
> Subject: Re: [RT] Ebay new targets
>
> > Earl,
> >
> > what is your overall view on bond and equity markets from here - say a 12
> month
> > view
> >
> > cheers
> >
> > sue
> >
> > Earl Adamy wrote:
> >
> > > Gotta be kidding .... I don't recall that she ever threw in the towel on
> her
> > > first short recommendation when it ran up to 72+- from 55+-.
> > >
> > > Earl
> > >
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: <SLAWEKP@xxxxxxx>
> > > To: <REALTRADERS@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > Sent: Wednesday, January 02, 2002 10:38 PM
> > > Subject: [RT] Ebay new targets
> > >
> > > > Dorothy Carter (former member) ask me to forward new downside targets
> to
> > > RT.
> > > > group
> > > >
> > > > New target given to 50.46..(would have to get above 68.50 to call
> target
> > > > into question)...pass it on to (RT) if you want..
> > > >
> > > > slawek
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
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> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
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> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > >
> > >
> > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
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> > >
> > >
> > >
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> >
> >
> >
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> >
> >
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> >
> >
>
>
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