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Ben,
First great call by the other person's on a 98-04 low.
I was looking for 97-22 here as a temporary low (fib expansion not AGET) but
not the low (it should be in the 95-96 area eventually, on the weekly
chart).
Here is the current AGET pattern (blow-up and normal views for the 60min, a
daily and a weekly) which has been tracking quite well, for some :-)
At issue now is, was yesterday "the low"?
All patterns targets from a "primary" 60min wave count have been met,
including the wave 5 target range now (needed to go under 99-05 at least).
The last MOB was reached and exceeded slightly, then a sharp snap back
rally occurred.
So for the 60min, as of now it appears we have either completed wave 5 to
the down side (which would complete wave 2 to wave 3 down on a daily chart),
. . . or the bond rally yesterday was a sub-minor 4 of minor wave 5, and a
final minor wave 5 of large wave 5 down, is yet to follow? With almost a 2
point reversal so far, it would seem the former? Yet bonds always have a way
of going where no one thinks they can go (as one has seen to the upside and
subsequently time and price-wise to the downside)?
As I write this the gap at (99-23) from Mondays pit close has been filled
and so the next fate for bonds will perhaps reveal itself shortly
Once the 5 waves complete themselves on the 60min, that has likely occured
(which is wave 2 to wave 3 on the daily), yes one would expect a wave 4
rally on the daily (which might portend stock market weakness).
However, since the original rise by the bonds to the top was almost a
parobolic, we are likely in a parobolic collapse also and therefore may
never "see the wave 4 rise on the daily"? The wave 3 daily has already gone
well past its normal target range (1.618 to 2.618) and is between 2.618 and
4.25 which only happens 7% of the time?
Sorry about all the charts, I hope one can follow the litany involving them.
don ewers
----- Original Message -----
From: "profitok" <profitok@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Cc: "Vincent DONOVAN" <vdonovan@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Monday, December 17, 2001 9:00 PM
Subject: [RT] Fw:Re: How far down are the bonds going?
> Hello
> this was posted by another list
> anyone care to post what a get is saying
> and
> if bonds are heading north is that mean south for
> sp500?
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "topos8" <topos8@xxxxxxx>
> To: <gannsghost@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Monday, December 17, 2001 10:58 AM
> Subject: [gannsghost] Re: How far down are the bonds going?
>
>
> > In Gannsghost posts # 7945 and 8011 I said that my own square of 9
> > calculations pointed to an intermediate term low in the bonds in the
> > 98-99 range.
> >
> > A couple of weeks have passed since I wrote those posts so I should
> > update the picture a bit.
> >
> > Right now It looks like the bonds will stop near 98-04 and the 10
> > year notes near 102-12. My best guess is that the intermediate term
> > uptrend I expect to start from those levels will carry the bonds up
> > to 105.
> >
> > Carl
> >
> >
> > --- In gannsghost@xxxx, "bondo92677" <bruce.larson@xxxx> wrote:
> > > Thought that was a low last week at 9913 based on simple square of
> > 9
> > > calculations and multiple cycles. Looks like 9730 next. That's a
> > > simple .618 retrace of 8900-11216 plus some other stuff. The 50%
> > > retrace on the 4.66-6.75 yield range is 5.70 which also points to
> > the
> > > low 98 handle.
> >
> >
> >
> > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > gannsghost-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxx
> >
> >
> >
> > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> >
> >
>
>
>
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>
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