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I posted some weekly charts shortly after my return in October suggesting
that W.1-5 down have been completed and that we are now due for a lengthily
ABC correction before the bear market resumes. Lenny has posited that the
decline from the high is a major W.A and that's entirely possible as well. I
will try to post some updated weekly charts this weekend. When I refer to a
strong market, I am referring to a market which is psychologically strong.
It was the change in psychology while trying to short the market in
mid-October which first alerted me to the idea that this could move much
higher. This sucker is driven by huge liquidity and lots of hope and I'm
still not convertible standing in front of it. I'm not a believer in the
hype, but I'm a believer that fast trains hurt when they hit you.
As for volume, Dorothy and I appeared to use different techniques yielding
different results. She never posted charts (except in DOC format and I don't
open DOC files so I never saw one) but I remember that she stated that EBAY
was in distribution and I posted charts with OBV showing it was under strong
accumulation.
My breadth models have been showing strong upside volume through much of
this rally, however they have since rolled over.
Earl
----- Original Message -----
From: "Ralph Volpe" <rjv@xxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Thursday, December 06, 2001 1:34 PM
Subject: Re: [RT] Earl
> Earl, Don did mention that Dorothy had left. However, like you, I suspect
that
> her mention of being a broker was to possibly pick up clients. As for her
views
> and forecasts, they were mixed, but I appreciated thinking about what her
> arguments were about. The one point she raised that I meant to bring to
the
> table, and will do now, is that this new wave higher lacked conviction
since it
> didn't have volume supporting it. Well, I think she was right, but I think
that
> only proves this is a correction to the larger drop that began in May of
this
> year. As for the language you've used ("I think most of us have been
awestruck
> by the strength of this rally") I would disagree because this hasn't been
a
> strong rally. Yes, there hasn't been a significant correction, but the
four week
> drop that preceded this 9 -11 week rise was more than twice as strong.
This
> rise, in my view, lacks the dynamic moves to be classified as a new
impulse
> higher -- so I'm considering it a correction, or a segment to a larger
> correction, that is about to conclude.
>
> Ralph
>
> Earl Adamy wrote:
>
> > Dorothy made no secret of the fact that she was a broker of long
experience
> > (I could never decide why she kept mentioning this), however her market
> > calls here were pretty mixed. According to Don, she has moved on to
other
> > pastures.
> >
> > I don't have the charts you posted but if your analysis was right on,
you
> > don't need Dorothy to confirm your work. I think most of us have been
> > awestruck by the strength of this rally and absence of meaningful
> > retracements. I was bullish but fully expected a minimum 50% retracement
> > back in November before the rally resumed. Has this market moved far and
> > fast ... you bet! Can it rally further ... you bet ... I have targets to
> > 1200 for the spoo. Are we at dangerous levels ... I sure think so but
I'm
> > not rushing to put on any shorts.
> >
> > I am of the opinion that much of the economic recovery and expected
profit
> > recovery is going to vaporize, however I can't prove it. Color me
suspicious
> > when analysts are quoting 2 year ahead (2003) earnings forecasts to
justify
> > prices at a market bottom ... market bottoms have always been marked by
use
> > of trailing earnings because the trailing earnings are better than the
> > expected earnings on the way down.
> >
> > Earl
>
>
>
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>
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>
>
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