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Earl, Don did mention that Dorothy had left. However, like you, I suspect that
her mention of being a broker was to possibly pick up clients. As for her views
and forecasts, they were mixed, but I appreciated thinking about what her
arguments were about. The one point she raised that I meant to bring to the
table, and will do now, is that this new wave higher lacked conviction since it
didn't have volume supporting it. Well, I think she was right, but I think that
only proves this is a correction to the larger drop that began in May of this
year. As for the language you've used ("I think most of us have been awestruck
by the strength of this rally") I would disagree because this hasn't been a
strong rally. Yes, there hasn't been a significant correction, but the four week
drop that preceded this 9 -11 week rise was more than twice as strong. This
rise, in my view, lacks the dynamic moves to be classified as a new impulse
higher -- so I'm considering it a correction, or a segment to a larger
correction, that is about to conclude.
Ralph
Earl Adamy wrote:
> Dorothy made no secret of the fact that she was a broker of long experience
> (I could never decide why she kept mentioning this), however her market
> calls here were pretty mixed. According to Don, she has moved on to other
> pastures.
>
> I don't have the charts you posted but if your analysis was right on, you
> don't need Dorothy to confirm your work. I think most of us have been
> awestruck by the strength of this rally and absence of meaningful
> retracements. I was bullish but fully expected a minimum 50% retracement
> back in November before the rally resumed. Has this market moved far and
> fast ... you bet! Can it rally further ... you bet ... I have targets to
> 1200 for the spoo. Are we at dangerous levels ... I sure think so but I'm
> not rushing to put on any shorts.
>
> I am of the opinion that much of the economic recovery and expected profit
> recovery is going to vaporize, however I can't prove it. Color me suspicious
> when analysts are quoting 2 year ahead (2003) earnings forecasts to justify
> prices at a market bottom ... market bottoms have always been marked by use
> of trailing earnings because the trailing earnings are better than the
> expected earnings on the way down.
>
> Earl
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