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Norm,
Here is my monthly with some support levels drawn and a trendline FWIW. The
trendline came into play here recently. The old support levels would
indicate things can go lower potentially. If you are right on your call on
the economy a bottom may be in (trendline), if not the old supports may come
into play and completetion of the pattern and movement to the MOB level on
my weekly chart?
Just as one ex-president said, "Its the economy . . . "
don ewers
----- Original Message -----
From: "Don Ewers" <dbewers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Tuesday, November 13, 2001 2:01 PM
Subject: Re: [RT] Copper
> (Sorry attached my reply to the wrong trailer, should have been on the
> "Copper" one, delete the previous post "Bonds to close above 107")
>
> No problem Norm. I am aware of the long term support down in this area.
>
> I am merely pointing out what is missing from the pattern as far as EW is
> concerned. The beauty of it is, it also puts one in a long position
> (trading a minor wave 4 or a wave 1 or A). The more one is familiar with
the
> use or interpretation of EW the more I respect that even if the count
might
> be wrong (better said . . off) it still puts one on the "right" side of
the
> trade. After that the use of stops etc will dictate the success of the
> trade.
>
> My point is the pattern is incomplete since what "I call a good" minor
wave
> 4 is missing. Does it mean it has to happen, no. I would just be
cautious
> as the possible minor 4 retracements are approached and at least open
one's
> thinking to the "possibilty", should it begin to unfold. If one decides to
> trades out, there is always re-entry above the highs.
>
> We all know what happened to Cotton as it approached its multi year lows
in
> March (chart attached). If deflation is still in play, nothing says
copper
> has to stop here?
>
> I can't speak to the planets, which is your area of expertise and I would
> differ to you, as to what that reveals?
>
> Good luck and good trading copper,
> don ewers
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Norman Winski" <nwinski@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Tuesday, November 13, 2001 1:23 PM
> Subject: Re: [RT] Copper
>
>
> > Don,
> >
> > With all due respect, to get the real currrent picture, you should be
> > looking at multi decade charts of copper. The low 60s brings copper
back
> to
> > major long term support. I welcome your analysis on this view Here is
a
> > link for long term copper prices.
> http://www.sharelynx.net/Charts/COPPER.gif
> >
> > Cheers,
> >
> > Norman
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Don Ewers" <dbewers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Sent: Tuesday, November 13, 2001 9:58 AM
> > Subject: Re: [RT] Copper
> >
> >
> > > Earl,
> > > Looking at a weekly chart, the spring reversals "could" be minor wave
4
> of
> > > wave 5 just beginning?
> > >
> > > Attached are two weekly charts and a daily:
> > >
> > > The first weekly is in long term count as (defined by the 3/35 losing
> > > control) with the 10/70 oscillator is being used. What "may" be
missing
> > > when I look at that chart is a good minor wave 4 of wave 5 (minor wave
4
> > > retracements shown)?
> > >
> > > On the second weekly chart I used the localized Elliott tool to count
> out
> > > the internal wave structure in wave 5 and used the 5/17 oscillator to
> > verify
> > > them. There is the possibility we could rally in this minor wave 4 to
> the
> > > 70.50 (.382), 73.63 (.50) or 76.76 (.618) retracement levels, then
fail
> > back
> > > down to the MOB which ranges from 56.45 to 52.77 with a first timing
bar
> > > (black vertical bar on the MOB) of the week of 1-11-02 ?
> > >
> > > When I jump to the daily (in long term count due to the 5/35 losing
> > > control), which is essentially measuringh wave 5 on the weekly, it
shows
> > the
> > > same thing and this is potentially wave 4?
> > >
> > > Either way one can trade it long (buy a pullback) but be aware the
> copper
> > > "may" not have bottomed yet, in ones overall trading strategy (don't
> marry
> > > the position)?
> > >
> > > Just some thoughts to throw into the mix.
> > >
> > > As you can tell I like to see well defined minor wave 4's in the wave
> 5's,
> > > less one get fooled and watch it make another new low after a brief
> rally,
> > > burn you and then the "real rally" takes place.
> > >
> > > Been there, done that :-)
> > > don ewers
> > >
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: "Earl Adamy" <eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>
> > > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > Sent: Tuesday, November 13, 2001 7:45 AM
> > > Subject: [RT] Copper
> > >
> > >
> > > > Not one, but two Wyckoff Spring Reversals on December copper ...
this
> is
> > > > very powerful. While the decline into the lows has been long and
steep
> > and
> > > > no secondary (higher) low has been established yet, this market
should
> > be
> > > > watched very carefully for low risk opportunities on the long side.
> > > >
> > > > Earl
> > > >
> > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > From: "Norman Winski" <nwinski@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > Sent: Monday, November 12, 2001 11:00 PM
> > > > Subject: Re: [RT] Bonds close above 107
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > > Jerry,
> > > > >
> > > > > I never said it was yet apparent. However, you should take a
look
> at
> > > the
> > > > > CRB and the prices of the various commodities that I mentioned.
One
> of
> > > the
> > > > > most accurate barometers of economic activity is Copper. So far,
it
> > > looks
> > > > as
> > > > > though copper may have made a low last week. However, if you are
> > > > skeptical,
> > > > > you can read all about the economic recovery which began in
November
> > > 2001
> > > > > when the media covers it in February - March 2002.
> > > > >
> > > > > Cheers,
> > > > >
> > > > > Norman
> > > >
> > > >
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> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
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> > >
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> >
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> >
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