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I'm sitting on the age-old dilemma ... hold or take some of the substantial
profits off the table. My very long term view remains unchanged ... there
will be a much deeper economic decline and long rates will be cut in half so
I'm not about to cash in because I have no alternative which provides the
relatively high guaranteed yields of the bonds I have now ... about 20%
maturing 2010 and the rest laddered 2016-2028.
What I am doing is looking at swapping some of the 2010 maturaties for some
high grade corporates as I expect corporate spreads will compress if we get
the economic bounce I'm thinking is on the way. As for stocks, I will
consider some position trades in groups with high relative strength if/when
I see a solid secondary low.
Earl
----- Original Message -----
From: "Don Ewers" <dbewers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Thursday, November 01, 2001 7:53 AM
Subject: Re: [RT] bonds long term
> Earl,
> What do you plan to do if we get this spike with your bond portfolio?
> I recieved your post on renewed interest in "some" stocks FYI.
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Earl Adamy" <eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Thursday, November 01, 2001 8:49 AM
> Subject: Re: [RT] bonds long term
>
>
> > Weekly is working very nicely with the 10/70 and long term counts ... so
> far
> > anyway. Timing mark on the "big MOB in the sky" is week of 07Dec.
> >
> > Earl
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Don Ewers" <dbewers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > To: "Real Traders" <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Sent: Thursday, November 01, 2001 7:40 AM
> > Subject: Re: [RT] bonds long term
> >
> >
> > > With the type of power move in the bonds made on 10-31-01 I decided to
> see
> > > if the 5/35 oscillator was possibly putting in a new high which would
> > shift
> > > the 5 wave count to a wave 3 (previously using 10/70 and long term EW
> > count
> > > due to the depth of the prior wave 4 pullback). As expected the count
> has
> > > expanded to the next "degree. Old wave 3 becomes wave 1, old wave 4
> > becomes
> > > wave 2, and finally old wave 5 becomes wave 3.
> > >
> > > Since we are in the wave 3 target range (see chart) then a pull back
> could
> > > start any time in here for a wave 4, which would be subsequently
> followed
> > by
> > > a wave 5.
> > >
> > > Bottom line if we are headed higher we may not go straight up to that
> > higher
> > > level (which would fit with the December high dates forcast by some
and
> > > others out to early February)?
> > > don ewers
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: "Don Ewers" <dbewers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > To: "Real Traders" <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > Sent: Wednesday, October 31, 2001 2:36 PM
> > > Subject: Re: [RT] bonds long term
> > >
> > >
> > > > Bruce,
> > > > I would be unfair to not post an example of a MOB failure (the
"break"
> > > side
> > > > of the equation). So here is one.
> > > >
> > > > I have been posting that bonds were in a wave 5 on a 60min chart and
> > > > "should" move higher (a move also supported by the daily and weekly
> > > charts).
> > > > The MOB off the 60min wave 3 is on the attached chart between 108-17
> and
> > > > 108-26. So prices should "make" the MOB, would be what one would be
> > > looking
> > > > for.
> > > >
> > > > Assuming you use a 60min chart to trade, you would have taken
profits
> at
> > > the
> > > > MOB. After which with the weekly showing higher MOBS, maybe buy a
> > retrace
> > > > or reverse if such a sell signal appeared. The movement through the
> MOB
> > > > like this tells you something (particullarly had it been more
> orderly).
> > > Now
> > > > whether you could get back on board or not is another question with
> this
> > > > kind of power move, but had it moved through and closed above, then
> took
> > > out
> > > > the high of that bar, it is a signal to get back on board and go to
a
> > > higher
> > > > time frame for targets (like the weekly posted earlier).
> > > >
> > > > I just don't want anyone thinking these things are magical.
> > > >
> > > > You will notice prices temporarily stalled underneath the 60min MOB
> > though
> > > > before busting through.
> > > > don ewers
> > > >
> > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > From: "Don Ewers" <dbewers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > Sent: Wednesday, October 31, 2001 11:29 AM
> > > > Subject: Re: [RT] bonds long term
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > > Bruce,
> > > > > MOB stands for Make Or Break and it is a tool within the AGET
> program.
> > > The
> > > > > "bands" represent target areas based on prior price action pattern
> and
> > > are
> > > > > calculated off of previous peaks. I considered them additive to
the
> > > > > standard fib expansion ranges that project areas where a specific
> wave
> > > > might
> > > > > end. In that regard they zero in on a 'tighter" possible target
> > range.
> > > > Do
> > > > > the always hold nope, are they always reached nope, can they be
> > exceeded
> > > > > yes, nothing is perfect, but I have found them to be very helpful.
> > > > >
> > > > > Essentially price is likely to "make" it there and if it "breaks"
it
> > on
> > > a
> > > > > closing basis can be a sign of an extended move above it
> (essentially
> > > what
> > > > > should have been resistance was blow away). In general they are
> > places
> > > to
> > > > > consider taking "some off the wagon" so to speak if not all and
look
> > for
> > > a
> > > > > reversal.
> > > > >
> > > > > The black vertical bars in them represent possible timing. The
> black
> > > box
> > > > to
> > > > > the far left of the band will disappear when the prior peak it is
> > drawn
> > > > from
> > > > > is exceeded and the MOB locks in place for price and time.
> > > > >
> > > > > Probably more than you wanted to know, sorry.
> > > > > don ewers
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > > From: <bruce.larson@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > > Sent: Wednesday, October 31, 2001 11:10 AM
> > > > > Subject: Re: [RT] bonds long term
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > > Sorry, what's a MOB? Only MOB I'm familiar with is the Muni
over
> > > > > > Bond spread.
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > --- In realtraders@xxxx, "Don Ewers" <dbewers@xxxx> wrote:
> > > > > > > Slawek,
> > > > > > > The seasonal (dark green line) on a AGET US01Z continuous
> weekly
> > > > > > would
> > > > > > > agree on a February peak (if not before). February 8, 2002 is
> the
> > > > > > peak on
> > > > > > > the seasonal for next year. Looking back on previous years
> shows
> > > > > > the
> > > > > > > pattern has followed it quite nicely?
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > That said we are into the wave 5 target range (shown as .618
to
> > 1.0
> > > > > > > expansion) with several MOB's overhead (one off the previous
> wave
> > 3
> > > > > > (@111-28
> > > > > > > to 112-26) and the other one is off the1998 peak in bonds
> (@115-16
> > > > > > to
> > > > > > > 118-03)) . Where exactly they stop price wise is still an
> unknown
> > > > > > but these
> > > > > > > are some areas to watch.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Bruce, your 117 pegs the exact center of the 1998 MOB, FYIW.
> > > > > > > don ewers
> > > > > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > > > > From: <SLAWEKP@xxxx>
> > > > > > > To: <REALTRADERS@xxxx>
> > > > > > > Sent: Wednesday, October 31, 2001 9:35 AM
> > > > > > > Subject: [RT] bonds long term
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > From weekly inverted 30 yr. Yield
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > --------------------------------------------------------------------
> > > > > > --------
> > > > > > > ----
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
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