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I have Lindsay counts that would indicate that Friday Oct 26 day 107 could
be a peak of potential H & S formation... this Lindsay count times up no
later than Nov 1 & suggests that market could start a freefall.... another
short term peak comes in Nov 14th... I don't see Sept low as low of
significance and will be surprised it it is not taken out in Nov. if not
Nov I would say that the Sept low will be taken out in Dec. Major indicies
back up to early Apr low closes which should be pretty stiff resistance.
Ideal scenario would be for us to start down early next week then rally to
lower high making right shoulder into Nov 1 then roll over.........
----- Original Message -----
From: "Earl Adamy" <eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>
To: "Realtraders" <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>; "LwSide1"
<lwside1@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Saturday, October 27, 2001 2:11 PM
Subject: [RT] Case for the bulls?
> I believe that the long term bear case remains in excellent shape. That
> said, I am beginning to see some signs that give me pause in making
shorter
> term bearish bets. This does not mean that the short term bullish case is
> strong, but rather the short term bearish case appears to have weakened
> leaving open the possibility that the next months will see a secondary low
> and a higher high. A review of charts at previous panic lows suggests that
> the 21Sep low is likely to be retested within 35+- days or not later than
> 09Nov.
>
> Now for a bit of fun!
>
> The attached weekly SP500 continuous unadjusted futures chart suggests an
> intriguing scenario. Technical work performed on the weekly chart months
> prior to September 11 suggested a price target of 1041 (call it 1000-1050)
> for completion of the initial 5 wave decline. One would expect this to be
> followed by a rally ... quite likely an ABC correction of 38%-50% lasting
a
> minimum of 38% of the time in decline. The events of September 11 set off
a
> panic decline to 939 which overshot the target quite a bit.
>
> While one typically watches retracements from the real low (left hand
> retracement column) it may be worth watching retracements from the typical
> (projected 1041) low (right hand column). When retracements are measured
> from the typical low, the rally is seen to be much less powerful than when
> measured from the real low and there is far more room for an upside
> retracement which does not negate the primary bear trend.
>
> Just a bit of out-of-the-box thinking which might just go a bit toward
> explaining market behavior for the past several weeks. Thoughts?
>
> Earl
>
>
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>
>
>
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>
>
>
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