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111.24 is near where bonds topped in 10/98. We need to go alot
higher imho. You can probably make a case there is some correlation
between dollar and bonds, but I remember 1985-6, when commodities and
the dollar both got creamed and the bonds shot up like a bat out of
hell. I have no view on the dollar here but feel commodities will
remain under pressure. The same forces of 1993, investors reaching
up the curve chasing yields, and mortgage duration extension trades
will squeeze bond yields down. Just need further evidence of subdued
inflation, credit problems and buybacks.
here is --- In realtraders@xxxx, "Dorothy K. Carter"
<dorothy.carter@xxxx> wrote:
> Re recent topping pattern.. bonds have gone down on bigger volume
on big
> down days than they have rallied back on up days... IF bonds are
going to
> break out then US$ will have to resume uptrend and volume will have
to pick
> up on any break to new highs if that happens. US $ has given
target to
> 112.75 ala 116.15 nt so US$ action next few days maybe telling..
IF top not
> in bonds watch March Bonds for potential peak around 111.24.....
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "BobR" <bobrabcd@xxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxx>
> Sent: Wednesday, October 24, 2001 9:07 PM
> Subject: Re: [RT] bonds top?
>
>
> > The price distribution still looks suspect for day session only
data.
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Earl Adamy" <eadamy@xxxx>
> > To: <realtraders@xxxx>
> > Sent: Wednesday, October 24, 2001 5:58 PM
> > Subject: Re: [RT] bonds top?
> >
> >
> > > Bonds closed above this important 78% retracement today,
however I don't
> > > have any wave counts on which I would hang my hat because the
20Sep
> > decline
> > > was so violent and so quickly retraced. Best guess at the
moment is that
> > > bonds are in a W.3 and should be headed to 111 area per both
daily and
> > > weekly charts.
> > >
> > > Earl
> > >
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: "Earl Adamy" <eadamy@xxxx>
> > > To: <realtraders@xxxx>
> > > Sent: Saturday, October 20, 2001 1:06 PM
> > > Subject: Re: [RT] bonds top?
> > >
> > >
> > > > Regarding earlier comments regarding the breach of the 78%
bullish
> > > > retracement level there was not a daily close above this
important
> level
> > > to
> > > > confirm the breach. Failure to close above this important
level is a
> > clue
> > > > that a correction may be underway.
> > > >
> > > > Earl
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > > > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxx
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
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> > > >
> > > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
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> > >
> > >
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> >
> >
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