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Since this is an important junction in the market I am posting
this market letter
regards
Ben
10/19/01 MARKET CLOSE TIMING IS
EVERYTHING
MARKET OUTLOOK- Rising from 9/21/01. Appears possibleto retest 9/21/01
low within a few weeks with positivedivergent indicators. Five week cycles
are overbought and are moving down.
INTERMEDIATE BULLISH:Federal Reserve has lowered interest
rates.Bonds are overbought, momentum shows negative divergence.M3 money
supply is up.NYSE A/D line shows positive divergence with NYC-I.Eight of
16 market index cycle momentum's are moving up.Dollar is moving
up.O'Neil indicator gave a bottom signal 10/03/01.S&P500 is 6.67%
UNDERVALUED below an estimated 1150 fair value.Beasley dominant market index
is OTC-C as of 10/15/01.
INTERMEDIATE NEUTRAL:Inflation is virtually flat. CRBI- continues to
move down.Investor sentiment: One is bullish and two are neutral.SP-CP
earnings are flat over the last three months.
INTERMEDIATE BEARISH:S&P500(39wk MA) went OUT 9/29/00 and is 11.12%
BELOW 1207.74.May through Oct seasonalty is unfavorable. All 4 of 5 week
index cycle momentums are overbought and moving down.The Russell 2000 signal
RUTRS2B1 went OUT 10/17/01.All five trading systems are holding funds.
MARKET VALUATION: S&P500 1073.48. Down 1.66% from last
week.Down 29.72% from new high 1527.48 on 3/24/00. Up 12.14% from 957.30
low on 8/31/98.
The S&P500 P/E ratio is 29.18(4 to 20 is range: 1870 to
1997).
S&P500 is 6.67% UNDERVALUED below an estimated 1150 fair value.
S&P500 annual earnings growth is -29.14%/year. Last week was
-29.14%.
S&P500 3 months earnings growth is -19.04%. Last week was
-19.04%.
S&P500 Inflation adjusted real dividend yield is -1.21%.
Prior week was -1.27%. SELL at less than approx.-1.50%.
The real 30 year U.S. Govt. bond yield is 2.73%, last wk was 2.73%.
The historical average, real yield is near 3.00%.
The average 30 year U. S. Govt. historical bond yield expected is
5.70%, current yield is 5.43%.
CPI for Sep is 2.70% (inflation), Dn from 2.92% in Aug Low 1.29 4/98.
PPI for Sep is 1.90% (inflation), Dn from 2.19% in Aug Low -1.76 3/98.
MARKET SENTIMENT: One is BULLISH and two are NEUTRAL.CBOE Equity Total
Vol. Put/Call Ratio: .67, last week was 0.64. Market: Bullish > 0.60
and Bearish < 0.30
Consensus(Newsletters/Brokers): 44% Bullish, last week was 43%
Bullish Market: Bullish < 25% and Bearish > 75%
Market Vane(Commodity/Futures): 37% Bullish, last week was 33%
Bullish Market: Bullish < 25% and Bearish > 65%
BEASLEY:OTC-C DOMINANT Neg Env, Score 12/15(IN > 4/15), IN
10/5/01. NYC-I
Neg Env, Score 3/13(IN > 3/13), OUT 10/18/01.
CYCLES 5
WK 10
WK 20
WK 9
MoDJ-30 N-Dn,10/18/01 OB-Up,09/27/01
N-Up,10/01/01 OS-Up,10/03/10WIL-5 N-Dn,10/18/01
OB-Up,09/25/01 N-Up,09/28/01
N-Up,10/04/01RUT-I N-Dn,10/18/01
OB-Up,09/27/01 N-Up,09/28/01
N-Up,10/05/01NDX-X N-Dn,10/18/01
OB-Up,09/28/01 N-Up,10/02/01 N-Dn,08/13/01N = Stoch
Between 20 and 80, OS = Stoch <20, OB = Stoch >80
SECTOR Averages ranked by percent gain from 9/21/01
low:
Hitech
17.8 BD-Junk
1.2 OTC-C
17.4 USBD
1.1 Health
14.4 VMFX
0.6 RUT-I 12.4
Currency -0.9 Europe
12.2 Precious -4.6FUNDS: JWNLNF (557 no load no
Fidelity Funds) ranked from 9/21/01: POGS
25.4 BGEI
-4.2 OBMC
23.9 GOLD
-4.4 WPJP
23.5 SCGD
-5.2 NPMC
21.9 FGLD
-5.8 MMMG 21.1 BEAR
-13.2 PRICE MOMENTUM
TRENDS:INDEX...MDY/CLOSE......MOMENTUM....EXPECTATION....IMPLICATION.....%
ChgS&P500...5
Up/1073.....Confirm.....Flat...........IN,10/12/01.....-1.66OTC-C....5
Up/1671.....Confirm.....Flat...........IN,10/12/01.....-1.88RUT-I....5
Up/426......Confirm.....Flat...........IN,10/12/01.....-0.67FSAVG....5
Up/372......Confirm.....Flat...........IN,10/12/01.....-1.22BTFTX...68
Up/56.......Negative....Down...........IN,07/11/01......8.16UTY-X...66
Dn/325......Confirm.....Flat..........OUT,07/13/01....-10.06XAU-I....7
Dn/53.......Confirm.....Flat..........OUT,10/10/01.....-1.60FSESX....8
Up/24.......Confirm.....Flat........ ..IN,10/09/01......5.23DXY-Z....5
Up/114......Positive....Up.............IN,10/12/01......0.50INTEA....6
Up/259......Confirm.....Flat...........IN,10/11/01.....-1.47FSELX....5
Up/40.......Confirm.....Flat...........IN,10/12/01.....-6.99
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