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I have noticed the big V factor and changes in trend most likely occur when
option expiration closely corresponds to the Sun changing signs. Last month,
expiration was
on Fri. Sept. 21 and the Sun entered Libra on Sept. 22. That is also the
time frame when the market made its low. This month expiration is Fri. Oct.
19 and the Sun doesn't change signs until Mon. night Oct. 22. Mercury will
also be turning Direct that night, so look for a change in trend on the
opening of Tue. Oct. 23.
Unexpiringly,
Norman
----- Original Message -----
From: "Ira Tunik" <irat@xxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Thursday, October 18, 2001 11:18 AM
Subject: Re: [RT] Options as an Indicator
> this early exercise, rollover, or closing of positions prior to Friday
started to happen several years ago when the SEC called the CBOE and
> other options floors as well as large traders to task for the extreme
volatility that occurred on option expiration Fridays. The public
> appeared to be outraged. Or so the SEC stated. To avoid this the large
traders in options saw fit to close their positions early to avoid any
> punitive action by the SEC. That is my understanding of the situation.
After that the big volatility and volume day turned out to be
> Wednesday. At times it would end up being Tuesday and sometimes Thursday,
but most often Wednesday. If there is a reason for it being
> Wednesday, I don't know what it is .
>
> Ralph Volpe wrote:
>
> > I had heard recently that option positions are being closed out earlier
> > than the Friday of expiration so as to smooth out trading on that final
> > day. I also heard that the Wednesday before is usually the biggest
> > close-out day to unwind positions. I haven't studied this, but if
> > yesterday's action was due to unwinding option positions, could that not
> > be a signal for tomorrow's action? My guess is that Friday will track
> > Wednesday and the severety one way or the othere would depend on how
> > many positions still need to be closed out. What I'm basically asking
> > is, has anyone studied the relationship between Wednesday and Friday
> > prices when Friday was the close-out day?
> >
> > --
> > Ralph => E-mail => rjv@xxxxxxxxxx
> >
> >
> > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
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> >
> >
> >
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>
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