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Don Ewers, I'm surprised at today's action, but analyze some recent daily
history, it fits into the grand scheme of things. Yesterday, when I began this
thread, I thought today would be pivotal, and I still think it is. Prices are
reaching good fib retracement levels, but I can't be conclusive on this since
I'll take the time tonight to review all the averages. My best guess is that we
close somewhere in the middle of today's bar for whatever index is being
watched. Any higher, and that would tip the balance in favor of the bulls, which
is something I wouldn't want at this point. Before writing this I briefly looked
at previous 3-week breakouts to the upside and this appears to be the weakest. I
still think this market will see new lows and I think the NASDAQ Composite
(COMP.X) will test 1300 before an end-of-year rally starts. Now, what can cause
this reversal when so much good news appears to be on the radar screens. Well,
we still have an Afghan war that could generate momentary fear. This could
involve unexpected casualties, a second front opening with Iraq, or the Taliban
receiving support from another country, such as China. Of course this is purely
speculation and has nothing to do with market analysis, but I think something is
going to reverse the optimism and turn the mini-bull around.
Ralph
Don Ewers wrote:
> Ralph,
> Here is an updated 60min SP cash chart, still showing wave 4 but at the .618
> level now and importantly the 10/70 has lost control.
>
> One interesting note on the chart is, notice the red line from wave 2 to the
> red wave 4 channels (barely visable just above the 4C since just starting,
> unlike the long green and blue ones), anyway that line is supposed to
> represent resistance which capped the move so far (as would have been lines
> drawn from wave 2 to the last green or blue dot on those wave 4 channels).
>
> The red PTI in the lower right is a low 23, so as I have posted before when
> the weekly, daily and 60min all folded into each other, that the first
> indication of a pattern problem would occur here on the 60min chart.
> Netting it out, it still some "cracks" and the low PTI is saying at best any
> wave 5 will be a double bottom or a failed 5th which never makes a new low
> and could even just keep going up.
>
> Notable on the daily SP cash chart is the fact that the PTI there has
> dropped to 22 from the 42 on my chart from 9-30-01. Actually it dropped
> below 34 on 10-3-01 again indicating if a wave 5 occurs it will likely be a
> double bottom or a failed 5th as described above.
>
> The softwares recommended strategy would be to buy a retracement (or test of
> the low should it occur) after which some buy indicator trips, since the
> 1-2-3 down is likely to relabel into a big A-B-C (daily and 60min) as
> discussed in a previous post (what if they change the lock discussion).
> don ewers
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Ralph Volpe" <rjv@xxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Wednesday, October 10, 2001 11:53 AM
> Subject: [RT] Bull to Bear
>
> > I haven't heard much lately from the Bears, and I hope some are still
> > out there. It was my view nearly two weeks ago that a reversal was
> > imminent from the lows after the WTC, and that seems to have occurred,
> > but to a dramatically lesser degree then I expected. This rally has
> > significant flaws that I think will weigh heavy on any further progress
> > in the markets from today's close forward. Now, if there are any Bears
> > still out there, I'm ready to snuggle in with you. Is there room to
> > accept a recalcitrant Bull?
> >
> > --
> > Ralph => E-mail => rjv@xxxxxxxxxx
>
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