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Well there's Bush's 2nd appearance today and the mkt is not rallying to new
highs... maybe time is up?... He's been the man for over a week... everytime
they marched him to the Rose Garden you'de been squeezed if you were
short.. hee hee
----- Original Message -----
From: "Ralph Volpe" <rjv@xxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Wednesday, October 10, 2001 1:46 PM
Subject: Re: [RT] Bull to Bear
> Earl, I agree with certain parts of your post but I question the pattern
analysis. First, you are absolutely correct about the buyers not
> allowing the sellers to overwhelm them. However, I think that's more of a
sublime seller technique to entice the bulls in, no different then
> gently tugging the bait to get the fish to bite. As Dorothy argued several
days ago, if this is a bull reversal, then where's the volume. This
> rally really lacks enthusiasm, especially after the sharp drops that
occurred. You would think there'd be a lot more enthusiasm to bottom fish.
>
> As for the bull flag, I can argue it's a pennant, but that may be more
semantics or a trader's preference. If it's a pennant, then today is a
> break, but I think this will fail and lead to prices below the formation.
If that happens, then my bull to bear conversion is on target, but we
> have to see. Also, a flag or pennant is arguable and can be defined as a
forth wave correction in a five-wave corrective pattern that's
> countering the WTC drop --- and today is the final fifth wave higher in
that corrective pattern. If there isn't significant follow-through
> after today , this move is doomed.
>
> Ralph
>
> Earl Adamy wrote:
>
> > A bull flag should project at least 62% expansion of the first leg from
the
> > retracement low or 1147+-. Like you, I am very dubious about this market
but
> > if that's a bull flag, it's bullish especially in combination with the
> > outside reversal and taking out of two inside days so far. The critical
part
> > is what happens if/when it gets back to the high because it's not a bull
> > flag without a significant move above 1087.50. The only significance of
the
> > retracement levels is to show that the retracement has been < 25%.
> >
> > My trading timing is suffering from 3+ weeks off so take it with a grain
of
> > salt. One thing I have noticed most of the way up is that the emini
sellers
> > (ask size) have tried repeatedly to overwhelm the buyers but the buyers
keep
> > absorbing inventory and moving it up. The other thing which I noticed
was
> > the unusual configuration of the reversal out of the triangle formation
> > discussed here yesterday. From what I hear a) there were big orders in
the
> > spoo pit this morning at the lows which drove the futures up driving the
> > cash up in turn and b) the ESF (Exchange Stabilization Fund) is being
used
> > to <interfere with> <support> <manipulate> the market (take your pick).
> >
> > Earl
>
>
>
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>
>
>
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>
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