|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
Bobr,
I know that most people consider the probability thing a kind of slippery
eel.. XYZ says a 70% chance of ABC happening. One has to keep in mind, as
Mike Fergeson recently reminded me, that a set of trades off of any
methodology will have a random distribution in its results, of say 75%
profitable trades.
I don't see the 10% of it not happening as an escape clause, emotionally it
might feel like that, but that is the measurement of what happens.
No one in the RT or WHIT's or AstroFinance has been able to document a
probabilty against a given Astro event.
I remember ZTrader carping for weeks about this.
Having worked in honing the probability thing for over three years now, 80%
or better in my work is dang good odds.
I have looked at HL Camp's work a couple of years ago, he publishes odds,
but never really explains the meaning of an a 60% of it happening, or 70% or
75%. 75% is a one in four failure. Emotionally that is pretty high. He
works his odds off of DJIA history, and in my opinion, it is a waste of time
in reading and actually clutters your head.
The emotional problem with odds, is one's attachement to a set of odds, Ben
really did publish the odds of the S&P making a higher high, nor did he put
in context the odds for a lower low. Hence, he didn't describe the set of
odds for what happens in the market, HH, LL, higher close or lower close.
If one got emotionally hung on the statement, "higher odds" then one is
placing one's own interpretation of what higher odds are
My work said, nix of a HH, because of a 77% chance of a lower low and a 62%
chance of a higher high. Yet I knew that there was 42% chance of an outside
day. So I was prepared for a higher high. If Ben's odds for a higher high
was at 70% that is higher odds, but it is in my opinion, about as good as
coin flip, I only get excited when I see near 80% odds.
I guess my point is I like to know my odds, and what my escape clause is
for the next day. It is better than working against, dynamic price fluidity
and intuitive instablity.. :)
Don
Subject: Re: [RT] MKT - option sentiment/sp/nasdaq
> Like the Fed X commercial says, "right on, bullseye" save ten percent with
> ontime timing. The normalized option ratio peaked as the OEX peaked.
> Speaking of timing, what happened to Arch Crawford's crash this week? As
> for Ben's 90%, that leaves 10% for it not to happen. Problem with
> probability is it always has an escape clause.
>
> bobr
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "M. Simms" <prosys@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Friday, October 05, 2001 9:23 PM
> Subject: RE: [RT] MKT - option sentiment/sp/nasdaq
>
>
> > Hmmm.....the late afternoon rally crushed this ND prediction.....
> > sure that was 90% ?
> >
> >
> > > -----Original Message-----
> > > From: profitok [mailto:profitok@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]
> > > Sent: Friday, October 05, 2001 12:13 AM
> > > To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > Subject: Re: [RT] MKT - option sentiment/sp/nasdaq
> > >
> > >
> > > Hello
> > > SP has hi odds of making a higher hi tomorrow and
> > > NASDAQ,, has BETTER then 90% n chance of closing LOWER
> > > nice long weekend
> > > Ben
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: "BobR" <bobrabcd@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > Sent: Thursday, October 04, 2001 11:19 PM
> > > Subject: [RT] MKT - option sentiment
> > >
> > >
> > > > During the bear trend this Exchange Composite indicator has
> > > made highs at
> > > > 0.5+ as the OEX made coincident highs. Thursday's data resulted in
> > > another
> > > > turning point indication. The indicator is simply the sum of all
the
> > > $Calls
> > > > divided by the sum of the $Calls and $Puts.
> > > >
> > > > bobr
> > > > http://www.oextrader.com/sigma_trader
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > > > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
> > http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> > >
> > >
> >
> >
> >
> > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >
> >
> >
> > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >
> >
> >
> > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> >
> >
>
>
> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>
>
>
> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
>
>
To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
|