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I don't claim to be an elliotician... but I
would guess that this has been a wave 4 which would imply that a
wave 5 should take to new lows... I would guess it would fool most if it
takes out Oct 98 lows just to flush bulls out then turn for a bigger rally most
probably timed by a military strike........... TGIF
<BLOCKQUOTE
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----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
Lee Morris
To: <A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Cc: <A
href="mailto:gannsghost@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";
title=gannsghost@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>gannsghost@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx ; <A
href="mailto:get_traders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";
title=get_traders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>get_traders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Thursday, October 04, 2001 9:01
PM
Subject: RE: [RT] thoughts on
market
here
are my thoughts on the s&p, we are below the red channel w/ a
pti of 22 - hitting the normal elipise w/ the 10/70 at zero, the 5/35 has lost
control, we are 10 points shy of a 62% rt, with all osc making highs for this
wave (no div), in time we are 1.6 of w2 (18x1.6=28) and if wave 4? continues
much more it wil be out of balance w/ the rest of the wave, none of the osc
are showing a wave 4 of w3 pull back, the wave 4 label in wave 3 is wrong in
that it is less in time and price then wave2, we have a neg candle pattern at
the recent top (bearish tail on daily), none of the osc have even started
pulling back if this is wave 4 of w C then we have a ways to go before we
finish a counter trend rally, we hit to the point the wave 4 target on the
daily chart. we have filled the 9/1, the overall structure of the advance from
9/21 low looks more like a 3 then impulse, however the 5 and 15 min charts
from todays hi also look like 3's suggesting a final leg up may
follow.
<SPAN
class=780024123-04102001>
so
my conclusion is that this is a counter trend rally that may have ended today
but prob will have one more small leg up on monday after a further
decline on fri or we may just decline from here, however because of the low
pti sig. new lows look unlikely but a retest is (current target is 936).
<SPAN
class=780024123-04102001>
the
comp and dow have not hit thier elipise which also adds wt to one more small
leg up. further it looks like unless the pti's improve w/ the next leg that
the dow and snp will retest while the comp w/ a pti of 56 on the 60 min will
likely make new lows which will set up an intermarket divergence which should
be bullish
<SPAN
class=780024123-04102001>
don
the 180 min charts have 128 bars
<FONT face=Tahoma
size=2>-----Original Message-----From: Don Ewers
[mailto:dbewers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]Sent: Thursday, October 04, 2001
6:33 PMTo: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject: Re:
[RT]S&PLee,I have a close below the lower
6/4 ma channel line on the 60min SPC. Do youhave the same on your
180min?How many bars are there on your chart from the start of w1?
The 60min has286, so to get into the right range (100-140) I believe you
should be justtoday be moving from a 120min to a 180min?My PTI
has dropped to 23, what are you seeing?don ewers----- Original
Message -----From: "Don Ewers" <dbewers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>To:
<realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>Sent: Thursday, October 04, 2001 1:08
PMSubject: Re: [RT]S&P> Lee,> That is the way
I would play it, this thing should be close to a turn here> if the
charts are right and it is "time to put a fork in it".>> I
view this more as short covering, not necessarily real buying? After
all> since when has Chambers got it right on his guidence
lately?> don ewers>> ----- Original Message
-----> From: "Lee Morris" <LMorris@xxxxxxxxxx>> To:
<realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>> Sent: Thursday, October 04, 2001
10:55 AM> Subject: RE: [RT]S&P>>> > don,
attached is a chart of the s&p 180. Am I reading the chart right
w/> the> > following anlysis based on our discussion
yesterday. the normal elipiseis> > now about to hit but the
5/35 has lost control so after a pullback w4 of> wc> > we
should have a final advance towards the lt elipise as the 10/70
pulls> to> > the 90-140% zone or plan b is that we are
likely topping here as the10/70> > will be at a 90%rt in the
next bar. just a side note we were within 9> points> > of
the w4 target and the 62% level. I also notice that there is no
divin> > the 5/17 which I would interpret as this being the w3
of wc, just my> > thoughts as I am trying to figure out how to
better use the elipise> > -----Original
Message-----> > From: Don Ewers
[mailto:dbewers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]> > Sent: Thursday,
October 04, 2001 10:54 AM> > To:
realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> > Subject: Re: [RT]
NASDAQ-100> >> >> > BobR,>
> You can find the "weighting" at this site:>
> <A
href="http://dynamic.nasdaq.com/dynamic/nasdaq100_activity.stm";>http://dynamic.nasdaq.com/dynamic/nasdaq100_activity.stm>
>> > Also check out this "heatmap" of all the NDX
100> > <A
href="http://screening.nasdaq.com/heatmaps/heatmap_100.asp";>http://screening.nasdaq.com/heatmaps/heatmap_100.asp>
>> > don ewers> >> >>
> ----- Original Message -----> > From:
"BobR" <bobrabcd@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>> > To:
<realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>> > Sent: Thursday,
October 04, 2001 9:33 AM> > Subject: Re: [RT]
NASDAQ-100> >> >> > > That is a
very interesting post, Stan. Do you know which of the NDX>
> stocks> > > are the most
influential in the index movement, perhaps the top 6 or> so?>
> > Can you make a hierachy screening of the components of
the indexfrom> > most> > >
influential to least?> > >> >
> thanks,> > > bobr> >
>> > > ----- Original Message ----->
> > From: "Stan Book" <sbook@xxxxxxxxxxx>>
> > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>>
> > Sent: Wednesday, October 03, 2001 9:37 PM>
> > Subject: [RT] NASDAQ-100> >
>> > >> > > > Just
scanned the NASDAQ-100 stocks. There are many more examplesof>
> > positive> > > > than
negative accumulation line divergence's. This suggests an>
> > intermediate> > > > term
bottoming process may have begun.> > > >>
> > > In terms of cycles, we are within the time frame
of a 3,6 & 9month> > low> > >
(the> > > > corresponding 12 month low was
overwhelmed). We also havereasonable> > > >
symmetry with the October 1998 low. No guarantees, of course.>
> > >> > > > While short
sell candidates are few and far between, a good rally> >
could> > > > change that. The best short
candidate I find is BBBY. The stock is> >
bumping> > > > up against potential resistance
with evidence of distribution.This> is> >
> often> > > > a low risk short sell
setup.> > > >> > > >
Especially for NW is bottom fishing candidate, LLTC. This
stockhas> > gone> > > to>
> > > new lows with evidence of accumulation which
suggests a potential> > trend> > > >
change. LLTV has the largest divergence of price to accumulation>
line> > of> > > all>
> > > NASDAQ-100 stocks. I would be happy with a rally
followed by a> > pullback> > to>
> > a> > > > double bottom
with evidence of continued accumulation. This would> >
normally> > > > present a low risk intermediate
term buy set up.> > > >> >
> > Other NASDAQ-100 stocks that show strong accumulation are:>
> > > BGEN - higher 10 week low>
> > > CEFT - higher 6 & 9 month low>
> > > IMNX - 6 month high> > >
> MEDI - 6 month double bottom (slightly higher low)>
> > >> > > > NASDAQ-100
stocks that show strong distribution have lost morethan> >
90%> > of> > > > their
value over the past 100 trading days. They have virtuallyall>
> become> > > > penny
stocks.> > > >> > >
> No recommendations, just some observations.> >
> >> > > > Stan> >
> >> > > >> > >
>> > > >> > > >
To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:> >
> > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> >
> >> > > >> > >
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