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One must admit that technical analysts and traders point to lower charts,
broken resistance lines and a lessening of confidence as proof that the
markets will go lower still. Conversely, the same happens on the up
side .. broken resistance, higher highs, heightening of confidence.. all
proof we will go ever higher. I posted earlier what Jimmy the Greek
used to say about "what has been happening is due to happen until it
doesn't happen any more" and that is the credo of technical analysts
even if they don't orate it. Anyone remember a contributor to this
list saying something like, "now that we have taken out the low end
of the resistance of the ****** and closed below that resistance, we can
expect a rebound and higher prices"?
There are fundamental reasons for every chart line but whether a
fundamentalist or a technician, if you just say what is going to happen
is what has been happening, you'll hammer hell out of the 50/50 line and
look pretty good on paper. Earnings are coming down .. no
doubt about it. The market, (which is a six month or so
prognosticator), is already down .. way down. Is it finding a
bottom or just bouncing along the ridges of a bottomless pit? Well,
just look out ahead six more months and if you see no hope of recovery in
sufficient sectors to matter, you know what to do and if you see a strong
possibility of recovery in enough sectors to generate earnings recovery,
you know what to do. I won't even express my opinion on this topic
other than to say the markets and all of us in them tend to over-react to
everything and note that positive statements on the markets have all but
dried up on this list and when opinion is so solidified, we all know what
happens.
I would like to thank Ira for his insightful posts which probably have
helped everyone on this list at times and to Dorothy who provokes
thoughtful consideration whenever she posts. In fact, we are
blessed with many list members who are willing to share their experience
and successes with us and we are all most fortunate for their
contributions. In my 34 years of trading, I have never had such an
opportunity to be a part of a "think tank" such as this
list. Thank you to those who provide us with this forum.
Good luck next week everyone ...
Bob
At 12:38 AM 9/30/2001 -0400, you wrote:
Clyde , Ralph ,
Ira.....et all: I have many arrows in my quiver.. Symmetry is only
one thing I look at and I don't marry anything. I've had downside
targets on S & P since the day after the may high.. First
target was given right off the top and was met within cents on the
last day June SPU traded. Sept met it's target before it went off
the board... The point I was making in my original post was that
just because it went below the uptrend line yet and managed to close a
hair above it Fri. did not mean that the bull was saved because it was
the end of the month......... my point was that it looked to me
like (using symmetry which has been working) that there was limited
if any upside beyond Friday's close and likely S & P would roll
over.......... At that point.. was when the posts changed the
subject of symmetry and if it did or did not work.....
J
----- Original Message -----
From: Clyde Lee
To:
realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Sunday, September 30, 2001 12:08 AM
Subject: Re: [RT] INDU
This is not about symmetry -- I'll get to that later.
This is about long term evaluation of potential targets for
SP based on history.
The attached is a picture of potential targets for the SP
based on historical data from 1930.
If I get a chance I'll dig out the exact markets where the
equivalent of the less than 800 targets occurred in the past
so we can see a better view of how this does or does not
match history.
Right now we are in the nether-nether land between two short
targets (we passed them) and two long targets (and that is
really a stretch to reach).
History says we are in a bear and will be for a bit ! ! !
Just for your information, this same picture has existed for
a total of 13 weeks using this same analysis. What would you
have thought 13 weeks ago about this projection. Could/would
you believe it -- not magic, just history.
Clyde
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Clyde Lee Chairman/CEO (Home of SwingMachine)
SYTECH Corporation email: clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx
7910 Westglen, Suite 105 Office: (713) 783-9540
Houston, TX 77063 Fax: (713) 783-1092
Details at: www.theswingmachine.com
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
----- Original Message -----
From: Dorothy Carter
To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Saturday, September 29, 2001 11:36
Subject: Re: [RT] INDU
Ralph: I agree with you that Symmetry does not ALWAYS work. I've been bitten by it before as I have a cycle that
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