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In spite of a bleak fundamental picture, the QQQ's tentatively broke the
down trend line stretching back a month/so. From a techincal viewpoint, the
money on the short side may not come so easy here, and there's a decent
chance of a strong counter trend rally of 20% or more over the course of the
next two months.
(Interesting thing about the recent downtrend - it got no worse, and
basically stayed on its same rate of descent that it had prior to 9/11.)
One factor arguing against an NDX (ie, QQQ) rally is the poor relative
strength of NDX vs. the S&P. Until that improves, the prospects of the NDX
outperforming the broad market are bleak. If the level of NDX to SPX hits
par, however, the spread of long QQQ, short SPX looks attractive.
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