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AMEN :-) My guess is the Oct 1998 lows will be taken out as most
think that is next support Dorothy
----- Original Message -----
From: "Gary Funck" <gary@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Saturday, September 29, 2001 9:16 PM
Subject: RE: [RT] SPX long term chart
> Another opinion, from this week's Barrons ("Sizing Up Small Caps"):
>
> [...]
> Our misgivings about the market springing from such fundamental concerns,
we
> must confess, were intensified by the most recent communique of crack
> technical analyst Alan Newman, editor of HD Brous & Co.'s Crosscurrents. A
> veteran market observer, Newman is one of the few technicians we know of
who
> has been right on the money about the stock market. As major indexes ran
up
> to yearly highs in late May, he was forecasting a low on the Dow for this
> year of 8800-9200. In subsequent updates, he reiterated his target for the
> Dow and forecast yearly lows for the S&P 500 of 980-1020 and for Nasdaq of
> 1465-1560.
>
> All three indexes, of course, hit and then crashed through his downside
> forecasts in the first week of trading after the terrorist attacks. So can
> prices go lower still?
>
> "I believe they will," he told us Friday, even as the market was enjoying
a
> brisk rally. "Everybody's convinced we're making another bottom --
> everybody's buying."
>
> But the break last year in the long-term trend line in place since '94, as
> shown in the accompanying chart, is a particularly ominous sign, he
argues.
> The S&P 500 is currently testing the October 1998 low of 923.32, and he
now
> believes will break through that level and, sometime next year, test
support
> at 817.67. But even if the test of the 1998 low is temporarily successful,
> he stresses, he sees "no validity for a renewed bull phase." The break in
> the '94 trend line, he insists, is the kind that suggests a secular, not a
> cyclical, bear market.
>
> That's not to say he rules out short-term rallies -- in fact, he suggested
> one was in the offing in his Monday missive, that the market looked very
> "oversold." But short-term moves, he feels, are pretty much a matter of a
> roll of the dice. A quick strike into Afghanistan and the capture of Osama
> bin Laden could trigger a mighty "short-covering rally" that could send
the
> Dow up 1,000 points or so, he suggests.
>
> However, the longer-term trend, in Newman's view, is that we are "in a
bear
> market and likely the worst of our lifetime." The bottom is nowhere in
> sight, he argues, "because too many stand ready to buy. We need to see
> strategists tone down their bullish stance and raise cash. We need to see
> mutual funds pile up cash. We need to see the public sour on the long-term
> mantra to invest and go to cash." Only a massive buildup of cash, he
> asserts, can provide the firepower for a broad advance.
>
>
>
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>
>
>
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>
>
>
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