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Ralph Your point about vol can also be
accurate... I would say at a intermediate low or low of lesser degree that I
would say yes it could be made on lite volume... that would impy that sellers
have dried up.... we did have big vol on way down it is the rally on the
way up that has been lite vol.......... as suggested in prior post..
the capitulation we have seen, IMO has been foreigners and institutional
and hedge funds... not the individual investor so I do not see that a low of
significance is in yet. Most lows of importance are not bot the last
houras was seen on 9-21.. usually you see the mutual fund redemptions come in
the last hour which causes volume to pick up the last hour with follow
through the next day or two for a low.... so making a low on lite volume would
be more of what you might see at a retest low or a correction in a bull market
vs this type of clearly bearish action...
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
Ralph Volpe
To: <A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Saturday, September 29, 2001 12:23
PM
Subject: Re: [RT] INDU
Dorothy, I posted the INDU message yesterday and had to run.
However, I'm back and after some thought, I have to refute what you've said.
First, you talk about symmetry in the markets. Where? Look at any chart, I
never see symmetry. For example, look at the move from 1995 to 2000, where was
the symmetry for that? How can symmetry have alerted you to that move. That
was strictly fundamentals, fundamentals, and fundamentals. Look at any chart
and I can show you more violations of symmetry than you can show me examples
of it. You also mention that large volume needs to define a turning point.
That isn't always true. The common turning point develops when Bear thrusts
lower are weakening and Bull thrusts higher are just beginning. The full
thrust of the Bulls usually occurs somewhere near 75% of the top, or near the
end point of the Elliot 3rd wave. That's when there's maximum unison and
energy to run it higher. At this point, however, I think the balance has just
tipped in favor of the Bulls and I think you'll be seening more evidence of
that as the days unfold. Now that I've made my case for the Bull clear,
they'll be a 1,000 point drop on Monday. If you also read back on this note,
you see that I've used the term Bear once and Bull four times. See, the Bulls
are winning already!
Ralph
"Dorothy K. Carter" wrote:
If you are right short term that it can
extend the move into next week... Looking at symmetry it would appear that
the upside would be limited and that what ever high level chop we may mark
out would possibly be making a right shoulder for an eventual down......
Personally, If we continue to rally on lite volume I can't get excited
for the bullish case....To
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