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It would be similar to a tax increase..popular natioanlism, but unlikely to
happen soon.
----- Original Message -----
From: <chrischeatham@xxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Monday, September 10, 2001 7:24 PM
Subject: [RT] Re: Japan's economic problems
> RE friction...have you heard that Japan is seriously discussing
> amending its constitution to permit an army?
>
> Chris
>
>
>
> --- In realtraders@xxxx, "Earl Adamy" <eadamy@xxxx> wrote:
> > Caveat: I do not consider myself to be have much depth of knowledge
> > regarding Japan.
> >
> > I would suggest that Japan has 3 problems at the root of its
> economic
> > problems: stock market bubble, real estate bubble, and manufacturing
> > competition from Asia and China. The later seems to be resulting in
> both
> > deflation and unemployment in Japan not to mention considerable
> trade
> > friction, especially with China. (The US is extremely vulnerable to
> the same
> > set of problems with respect to imports from China and other
> countries.) The
> > Japanese have typically adapted to international manufacturing
> imbalances by
> > building factories off-shore. This has worked very well for Japanese
> > manufacturers in Asia ex-China, however China's history with Japan
> is one
> > which has tended to create a less hospitable environment for
> Japanese
> > manufacturing investment. Thus, heavy imports from China are not
> offset by
> > strong manufacturing earnings.
> >
> > I think you are correct that homogeneity has been a two edged
> sword ... the
> > plus side has been social stability and the minus side has been
> ineffectual
> > problem solving. By contrast, facing and solving problems when
> forced to do
> > so, has been a particular strength in the US. There seems to be some
> > evidence that Kozumi (sp?) and others may find strong nationalism
> to be a
> > politically more palatable route than facing the problems. This
> could lead
> > to friction between Japan and the rest of Asia (particularly China)
> and even
> > with the US.
> >
> > Earl
> >
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Daniel Goncharoff" <thegonch@xxxx>
> > To: <realtraders@xxxx>
> > Sent: Monday, September 10, 2001 7:19 AM
> > Subject: Re: [RT] Markets: Stock Index Futures and regulation
> >
> >
> > > Earl
> > >
> > > I have a different understanding of what has happened in Japan. I
> > > thought the drop in Japan was caused by two factors, a massive
> real
> > > estate bubble combined with a real plateau in manufacturing. Only
> when
> > > the bubble burst did it become clear that the real economy was
> > > deteriorating, and it never found a bottom.
> > >
> > > I also think the Japanese would disagree that their homogeneity
> is a
> > > strength -- they are starting to come to the opinion that it is
> the
> > > reason they 'can't get up'. There is no way to dispose of old
> baggage...
> > >
> > > As for 1929, I think the similarities are there. Raw material
> producers
> > > have been struggling with deflation. The 'popular' (populist?)
> view
> > > seems to favor less globalisation rather than more. There is no
> specific
> > > global military threat, so the developed countries have more
> incentive
> > > to fight over differences rather than smooth them over. Traumatic
> events
> > > (by definition?) come when you don't expect them.
> > >
> > > Regards
> > > DanG
> > >
> > > Earl Adamy wrote:
> > > >
> > > > Rakesh,
> > > >
> > > > As a trader I use technical analysis exclusively. My bias toward
> > technical
> > > > analysis carries into longer term investing except when I
> believe there
> > are
> > > > extreme conditions in the market. I also have long had an
> interest in
> > long
> > > > term market history because I do believe that there are lessons
> to be
> > > > learned from history and that markets move from one extreme to
> another
> > and
> > > > back. However first and foremost in trading and investing is
> capital
> > > > preservation. Thus I was a couple of years early in starting to
> ease out
> > of
> > > > equity investments and I may be a couple of years late in
> easing back
> > in.
> > > >
> > > > I believe that there are many similarities between the current
> US market
> > and
> > > > both the Japanese and post-crash (29) US market. There are also
> many
> > > > differences ... one is the dependency of the US economy on
> services (the
> > > > Japanese and 29 economies were manufacturing based) and another
> is the
> > more
> > > > homogeneous social makeup of the Japanese society. The later is
> > significant
> > > > because the Japanese (and to a lesser degree European) social
> orders are
> > > > less driven by free wheeling capitalism which I believe has
> been carried
> > to
> > > > an extreme in the US and (particularly in Japan) the
> homogeneous society
> > has
> > > > eased the financial pain of depression. Never-the-less there is
> a
> > creative
> > > > and free wheeling spirit here which should not be
> underestimated because
> > it
> > > > has proven itself capable of adapting to (and leading)
> tremendous
> > challenge
> > > > and change for several centuries.
> > > >
> > > > Still, in my mind, the excesses have been carried so far over a
> period
> > of
> > > > decades that there must be a long/steep corrective period. The
> pain will
> > > > happen ... it is up to those attempting to manage the economy
> whether
> > the
> > > > correction will be long or will be deep. In the US I would add
> that
> > there
> > > > has been a general preference for the public rather than
> business to
> > take
> > > > the brunt of economic pain e.g. the banks are profiting
> handsomely on
> > rate
> > > > spreads while the public is paying relatively high rates for
> credit.
> > > >
> > > > All selling machines are always in gear and Wall Street is no
> exception.
> > > > When sales slow and inventories pile up at car dealers you
> don't hear
> > them
> > > > running negative advertising, neither does Wall Street. The
> astute
> > investor
> > > > will take some independent measures and reach conclusions
> independent of
> > the
> > > > hype.
> > > >
> > > > As for investing in a major turn in the markets, on technical
> basis I
> > will
> > > > need to see weekly charts with well established bullish trends
> > (particularly
> > > > good looking, bullish linear regression channels) and on a
> fundamental
> > basis
> > > > I want to see companies with strong market positions, honest
> accounting
> > and
> > > > good values in the stocks in which I invest ... this requires a
> major
> > mind
> > > > shift from investing in markets which are already in a steadily
> rising
> > bull
> > > > market.
> > > >
> > > > What I really expect to see is the time come when absolutely no
> one
> > wants to
> > > > own stocks (this last happened in the 30's and 40's) and that
> is when I
> > > > expect to start shopping for real bargains with real earnings
> and real
> > > > dividends. In the interim, I continue to like bonds and believe
> they are
> > > > probably a double over the next 5-10 years (look at the history
> of
> > interest
> > > > rates in the 30's and modern Japan). I remain undecided on
> currency
> > issues
> > > > because I think the issues are more degrees of pain rather than
> a safe
> > > > haven. If world economic woes bring a rise in nationalism and
> > > > political/social dislocation (I think this is a good
> possibility), arms
> > > > makers may lead an economic rebound.
> > > >
> > > > More than anything else, one must continuously observe
> (independently of
> > the
> > > > media), think, and adapt to conditions as they unfold.
> > > >
> > > > Earl
> > > >
> > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > From: "Rakesh Sahgal" <rsahgal@xxxx>
> > > > To: <realtraders@xxxx>
> > > > Sent: Sunday, September 09, 2001 8:08 AM
> > > > Subject: Re: [RT] Markets: Stock Index Futures and regulation
> > > >
> > > > > Earl,
> > > > >
> > > > > In your write up on the prospects for the economy in your
> country you
> > have
> > > > > primarily relied upon fundamental concerns(if I understand you
> > correctly)
> > > > > which are coming to the fore now, rather being touted by the
> salesmen
> > of
> > > > > Wall St. now when the markets have already tanked.
> > > > > These factors were not being cited by Wall St. gurus and their
> > underlings
> > > > > globally earlier on, when the markets were touching the skies.
> > > > > Cant one infer from these shenanigans that "they" have
> exhausted
> > > > > inventories and and are now re-stocking or is this assumption
> > erroneous?
> > > > > This I ask in light of the fact that sooner than later the
> easing
> > > > > liiquidity conditions will make themselves felt in the
> economy. Also
> > how
> > > > > relevant are the comparisons of the U.S economy with the
> Japanese
> > economy
> > > > > with their structural differences( or am I again ignorant of
> the
> > > > similarities)?
> > > > >
> > > > > Once Ira had posted that the Wall St. selling machine always
> finds
> > > > > stories/concepts to tout after the current rage is dead and
> buried.
> > Are
> > > > you
> > > > > saying that the conditions are going to be so dire that the
> markets
> > are
> > > > not
> > > > > going to reward performance and/or the prospects of
> performance of the
> > > > next
> > > > > great "find"?
> > > > >
> > > > > You further state in your message below, that you are
> willing to
> > change
> > > > > your analysis contingent upon contrary evidence emerging.
> Given your
> > very
> > > > > strong views what would you term conclusive evidence keeping
> in view
> > the
> > > > > fact the charts will essentially lead the economy and
> corporate
> > > > > performance? Would you wait for confirmatory economic data
> and enter
> > the
> > > > > markets on pull backs in the new trend or trade major support
> > > > > points/projections with stop losses?
> > > > >
> > > > > Look forward to your comments.
> > > > > Regards.
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > Rakesh
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > At 08:06 AM 9/8/01 -0600, you wrote:
> > > > > >Yes, that was a typo, I was referring to the introduction of
> single
> > stock
> > > > > >futures. I do not disagree with your observations as they
> relate to
> > > > current
> > > > > >market conditions. My comments are directed toward conditions
> > existing in
> > > > a
> > > > > >major cyclical bear market of the type and scope we have not
> seen for
> > > > nearly
> > > > > >a century. Should those conditions emerge, I believe that the
> > enthusiasm
> > > > > >for, and regulation of, derivatives will change markedly.
> > > > > >
> > > > > >I should, perhaps, add a few caveats regarding my opinions.
> I am
> > > > personally
> > > > > >extremely bearish in my view of the equity markets for the
> next
> > decade.
> > > > This
> > > > > >is reflected in the fact that my investments have been 100%
> in long
> > term
> > > > > >treasuries and bond funds for well over a year now and I am
> even now
> > > > > >completing the process of switching bond funds (most of
> which contain
> > > > GSE's
> > > > > >and corporates) for treasuries. Futures trading is another
> matter, I
> > > > don't
> > > > > >care if the market goes up or down as long as it does one or
> the
> > other,
> > > > > >preferably in a trending manner. Finally, my investment hat
> is in no
> > way
> > > > > >married to the bear case should strong evidence emerge to the
> > contrary,
> > > > > >however I am in no way interested in trying to time my
> investments to
> > > > catch
> > > > > >the absolute bottom in this market.
> > > > > >
> > > > > >Earl
> > > > > >
> > > > > >----- Original Message -----
> > > > > >From: <I4Lothian@xxxx>
> > > > > >To: <realtraders@xxxx>
> > > > > >Sent: Saturday, September 08, 2001 7:32 AM
> > > > > >Subject: Re: [RT] Markets: Stock Index Futures and regulation
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > > Earl:
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > With all due respect, stock "index" futures have been a
> huge
> > success.
> > > > I
> > > > > > > believe you wish to be skeptical of single stock
> futures. And
> > given
> > > > then
> > > > > > > attendance and interest shown by the futures and
> securities
> > industry
> > > > this
> > > > > > > week at a seminar in Chicago by the Futures Industry
> Association,
> > I
> > > > beg to
> > > > > > > differ with your conclusion.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Single Stock Futures, in my opinion, will be the single
> largest
> > new
> > > > > >product
> > > > > > > we have ever seen introduced. There will be three
> exchanges in
> > the
> > > > U.S.
> > > > > > > offering them, a very aggressive and with it Nasdaq-
> LIFFE, the yet
> > to
> > > > be
> > > > > > > named but formidable Chicago Joint Venture of the
> CBOE/CME/CBOT
> > and
> > > > the
> > > > > >just
> > > > > > > announced AMEX. What product have we had launched by
> three
> > exchanges
> > > > all
> > > > > >at
> > > > > > > the same time?
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Keep in mind that the banks wanted nothing to do with the
> CBOT
> > when
> > > > they
> > > > > > > launched the bonds. Six months later they were knocking
> down the
> > > > doors
> > > > > >for
> > > > > > > memberships and floor space. Look at the influence of
> stock
> > volumes
> > > > from
> > > > > > > tine introduction of options trading in the 1970s and
> stock index
> > > > futures
> > > > > >in
> > > > > > > the 1980s. Volume took off and never looked back.
> Nearly 1/3 of
> > the
> > > > > >weekly
> > > > > > > NYSE volume comes from program trading alone.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > The new single stock futures will offer tremendous
> capital and
> > > > operational
> > > > > > > efficiencies to some of the largest players in the
> industry. No
> > more
> > > > > >waiting
> > > > > > > t+3 for stocks to settle. Same day settlement. Marked
> to the
> > market
> > > > at
> > > > > >the
> > > > > > > same clearing house, the OCC, for all the single stock
> futures and
> > > > options
> > > > > > > trading. Same clearing house for settlement and delivery
> of
> > options
> > > > and
> > > > > > > futures contracts.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Take then that the biggest corporate names in the world
> are U.S.
> > > > companies
> > > > > > > that can be traded as SSF. Take then that the U.S.
> capital
> > markets
> > > > are
> > > > > >the
> > > > > > > best in the world in terms of legal certainty, regulation
> and
> > > > fairness.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > These are all parts of the equation why single stock
> futures will
> > > > work.
> > > > > >Will
> > > > > > > they take volume from stocks? Yes and no. That same
> argument was
> > > > made
> > > > > >when
> > > > > > > options and indexes were introduced and they only added
> to the
> > > > liquidity
> > > > > >of
> > > > > > > the market. With the movement of time we have been able
> to
> > introduce
> > > > > >better
> > > > > > > and better contracts to specifically meet the needs of
> traders,
> > > > hedgers
> > > > > >and
> > > > > > > investors. We no longer need to run into gold or
> soybeans to
> > hedge
> > > > our
> > > > > > > inflation or deflation risk. These tools will only make
> what
> > people
> > > > want
> > > > > >to
> > > > > > > do, and do, more efficient.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > And I for one and going to do my best to make sure they
> will be
> > > > > >successful.
> > > > > > > Part of the reason I write my daily industry newsletter
> is to help
> > > > people
> > > > > >in
> > > > > > > the futures and securities industry manage the changes
> all around
> > us.
> > > > Just
> > > > > >in
> > > > > > > the last week I have had a President and CEO of a U.S.
> exchange
> > sign
> > > > up
> > > > > >for
> > > > > > > the letter. A Senior Vice President of one of the Chicago
> > exchanges
> > > > > >signed
> > > > > > > up. A large division of a clearing FCM will shortly be
> announcing
> > > > they
> > > > > >are
> > > > > > > going to license my letter to offer to their clients and
> to
> > attract
> > > > new
> > > > > > > clients. They will be offering it at a single stock
> futures
> > > > newsletter.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > So, all the signs I see say that these new products are
> going to
> > work.
> > > > > >And
> > > > > > > as the Nasdaq-LIFFE said, they are going to "make" them
> work. I
> > have
> > > > > >never
> > > > > > > seen an exchange so confident, so focused on the good of
> the
> > customer,
> > > > so
> > > > > > > focused on offering a level playing field for all
> participants as
> > the
> > > > > > > Nasdaq-LIFFE. And I believe them.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Regards,
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > John J. Lothian
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Disclosure: Futures trading involves financial risk, lots
> of it!
> > John
> > > > J.
> > > > > > > Lothian is the President of the Electronic Trading
> Division of The
> > > > Price
> > > > > > > Futures Group, Inc., an Introducing Broker clearing Man
> Financial
> > Inc.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > In a message dated 9/8/01 7:17:41 AM Central Daylight
> Time,
> > > > > >eadamy@xxxx
> > > > > > > writes:
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > << I doubt that stock index futures are going to get very
> far off
> > the
> > > > > >ground.
> > > > > > > Essentially, stock index futures (low margin and high
> leverage)
> > are
> > > > the
> > > > > >last
> > > > > > > nail in the coffin of post-29 market regulation. I
> believe that
> > we
> > > > are in
> > > > > > > the early stages of a major cyclical bear market and I
> expect to
> > see
> > > > > >stock
> > > > > > > market volumes diminish to levels not seen in decades as
> a
> > byproduct
> > > > of
> > > > > > > severe price declines ... the pendulum always swings
> from one
> > extreme
> > > > to
> > > > > >the
> > > > > > > other. I further expect that liquidity in the futures
> and options
> > > > markets
> > > > > > > will suffer.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > I find it especially ironic that the post-29 market and
> banking
> > > > > >regulations
> > > > > > > were removed just as the markets moved to such excess.
> The fact
> > that
> > > > > >these
> > > > > > > regulations were seen to be inhibiting the upward move
> of the
> > markets
> > > > > >should
> > > > > > > have been a warning rather than a reason to remove the
> > regulations.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Earl >>
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > > > > > > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxx
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
> > > > http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > > > > >realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxx
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
> > http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> > > > >
> > > > Rakesh
> > > > > Sahgal
> > > > >
> > C
> > > > > -165(1st Floor), Greater Kailash - I,
> > > > >
> > > > New
> > > > > Delhi - 110 048
> > > > >
> > > > India.
> > > > >
> > > > Tel.:
> > > > > 91-11-647-6462,91-11-643-0010
> > > > >
> > > > eMail:
> > > > > rakeshsahgal@xxxx
> > > > >
> > > > rsahgal@xxxx
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > Rakesh Sahgal
> > > > > Online Status:
> > > > >
> > > >
> > <http://eudora.voicecontact.com/vc3/index.html?rakeshsahgal%
> 40eth.net><http:
> > > >
> > //eudora.voicecontact.com/vc3/index.html?rakeshsahgal%
> 40eth.net><http://www.
> > > > eudora.com/products/voicecontact/>
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > > > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxx
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
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> > >
> > >
> > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
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> > >
> > >
> > >
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> > >
> > >
> > >
>
>
>
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