|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
RE friction...have you heard that Japan is seriously discussing
amending its constitution to permit an army?
Chris
--- In realtraders@xxxx, "Earl Adamy" <eadamy@xxxx> wrote:
> Caveat: I do not consider myself to be have much depth of knowledge
> regarding Japan.
>
> I would suggest that Japan has 3 problems at the root of its
economic
> problems: stock market bubble, real estate bubble, and manufacturing
> competition from Asia and China. The later seems to be resulting in
both
> deflation and unemployment in Japan not to mention considerable
trade
> friction, especially with China. (The US is extremely vulnerable to
the same
> set of problems with respect to imports from China and other
countries.) The
> Japanese have typically adapted to international manufacturing
imbalances by
> building factories off-shore. This has worked very well for Japanese
> manufacturers in Asia ex-China, however China's history with Japan
is one
> which has tended to create a less hospitable environment for
Japanese
> manufacturing investment. Thus, heavy imports from China are not
offset by
> strong manufacturing earnings.
>
> I think you are correct that homogeneity has been a two edged
sword ... the
> plus side has been social stability and the minus side has been
ineffectual
> problem solving. By contrast, facing and solving problems when
forced to do
> so, has been a particular strength in the US. There seems to be some
> evidence that Kozumi (sp?) and others may find strong nationalism
to be a
> politically more palatable route than facing the problems. This
could lead
> to friction between Japan and the rest of Asia (particularly China)
and even
> with the US.
>
> Earl
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Daniel Goncharoff" <thegonch@xxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxx>
> Sent: Monday, September 10, 2001 7:19 AM
> Subject: Re: [RT] Markets: Stock Index Futures and regulation
>
>
> > Earl
> >
> > I have a different understanding of what has happened in Japan. I
> > thought the drop in Japan was caused by two factors, a massive
real
> > estate bubble combined with a real plateau in manufacturing. Only
when
> > the bubble burst did it become clear that the real economy was
> > deteriorating, and it never found a bottom.
> >
> > I also think the Japanese would disagree that their homogeneity
is a
> > strength -- they are starting to come to the opinion that it is
the
> > reason they 'can't get up'. There is no way to dispose of old
baggage...
> >
> > As for 1929, I think the similarities are there. Raw material
producers
> > have been struggling with deflation. The 'popular' (populist?)
view
> > seems to favor less globalisation rather than more. There is no
specific
> > global military threat, so the developed countries have more
incentive
> > to fight over differences rather than smooth them over. Traumatic
events
> > (by definition?) come when you don't expect them.
> >
> > Regards
> > DanG
> >
> > Earl Adamy wrote:
> > >
> > > Rakesh,
> > >
> > > As a trader I use technical analysis exclusively. My bias toward
> technical
> > > analysis carries into longer term investing except when I
believe there
> are
> > > extreme conditions in the market. I also have long had an
interest in
> long
> > > term market history because I do believe that there are lessons
to be
> > > learned from history and that markets move from one extreme to
another
> and
> > > back. However first and foremost in trading and investing is
capital
> > > preservation. Thus I was a couple of years early in starting to
ease out
> of
> > > equity investments and I may be a couple of years late in
easing back
> in.
> > >
> > > I believe that there are many similarities between the current
US market
> and
> > > both the Japanese and post-crash (29) US market. There are also
many
> > > differences ... one is the dependency of the US economy on
services (the
> > > Japanese and 29 economies were manufacturing based) and another
is the
> more
> > > homogeneous social makeup of the Japanese society. The later is
> significant
> > > because the Japanese (and to a lesser degree European) social
orders are
> > > less driven by free wheeling capitalism which I believe has
been carried
> to
> > > an extreme in the US and (particularly in Japan) the
homogeneous society
> has
> > > eased the financial pain of depression. Never-the-less there is
a
> creative
> > > and free wheeling spirit here which should not be
underestimated because
> it
> > > has proven itself capable of adapting to (and leading)
tremendous
> challenge
> > > and change for several centuries.
> > >
> > > Still, in my mind, the excesses have been carried so far over a
period
> of
> > > decades that there must be a long/steep corrective period. The
pain will
> > > happen ... it is up to those attempting to manage the economy
whether
> the
> > > correction will be long or will be deep. In the US I would add
that
> there
> > > has been a general preference for the public rather than
business to
> take
> > > the brunt of economic pain e.g. the banks are profiting
handsomely on
> rate
> > > spreads while the public is paying relatively high rates for
credit.
> > >
> > > All selling machines are always in gear and Wall Street is no
exception.
> > > When sales slow and inventories pile up at car dealers you
don't hear
> them
> > > running negative advertising, neither does Wall Street. The
astute
> investor
> > > will take some independent measures and reach conclusions
independent of
> the
> > > hype.
> > >
> > > As for investing in a major turn in the markets, on technical
basis I
> will
> > > need to see weekly charts with well established bullish trends
> (particularly
> > > good looking, bullish linear regression channels) and on a
fundamental
> basis
> > > I want to see companies with strong market positions, honest
accounting
> and
> > > good values in the stocks in which I invest ... this requires a
major
> mind
> > > shift from investing in markets which are already in a steadily
rising
> bull
> > > market.
> > >
> > > What I really expect to see is the time come when absolutely no
one
> wants to
> > > own stocks (this last happened in the 30's and 40's) and that
is when I
> > > expect to start shopping for real bargains with real earnings
and real
> > > dividends. In the interim, I continue to like bonds and believe
they are
> > > probably a double over the next 5-10 years (look at the history
of
> interest
> > > rates in the 30's and modern Japan). I remain undecided on
currency
> issues
> > > because I think the issues are more degrees of pain rather than
a safe
> > > haven. If world economic woes bring a rise in nationalism and
> > > political/social dislocation (I think this is a good
possibility), arms
> > > makers may lead an economic rebound.
> > >
> > > More than anything else, one must continuously observe
(independently of
> the
> > > media), think, and adapt to conditions as they unfold.
> > >
> > > Earl
> > >
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: "Rakesh Sahgal" <rsahgal@xxxx>
> > > To: <realtraders@xxxx>
> > > Sent: Sunday, September 09, 2001 8:08 AM
> > > Subject: Re: [RT] Markets: Stock Index Futures and regulation
> > >
> > > > Earl,
> > > >
> > > > In your write up on the prospects for the economy in your
country you
> have
> > > > primarily relied upon fundamental concerns(if I understand you
> correctly)
> > > > which are coming to the fore now, rather being touted by the
salesmen
> of
> > > > Wall St. now when the markets have already tanked.
> > > > These factors were not being cited by Wall St. gurus and their
> underlings
> > > > globally earlier on, when the markets were touching the skies.
> > > > Cant one infer from these shenanigans that "they" have
exhausted
> > > > inventories and and are now re-stocking or is this assumption
> erroneous?
> > > > This I ask in light of the fact that sooner than later the
easing
> > > > liiquidity conditions will make themselves felt in the
economy. Also
> how
> > > > relevant are the comparisons of the U.S economy with the
Japanese
> economy
> > > > with their structural differences( or am I again ignorant of
the
> > > similarities)?
> > > >
> > > > Once Ira had posted that the Wall St. selling machine always
finds
> > > > stories/concepts to tout after the current rage is dead and
buried.
> Are
> > > you
> > > > saying that the conditions are going to be so dire that the
markets
> are
> > > not
> > > > going to reward performance and/or the prospects of
performance of the
> > > next
> > > > great "find"?
> > > >
> > > > You further state in your message below, that you are
willing to
> change
> > > > your analysis contingent upon contrary evidence emerging.
Given your
> very
> > > > strong views what would you term conclusive evidence keeping
in view
> the
> > > > fact the charts will essentially lead the economy and
corporate
> > > > performance? Would you wait for confirmatory economic data
and enter
> the
> > > > markets on pull backs in the new trend or trade major support
> > > > points/projections with stop losses?
> > > >
> > > > Look forward to your comments.
> > > > Regards.
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > Rakesh
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > At 08:06 AM 9/8/01 -0600, you wrote:
> > > > >Yes, that was a typo, I was referring to the introduction of
single
> stock
> > > > >futures. I do not disagree with your observations as they
relate to
> > > current
> > > > >market conditions. My comments are directed toward conditions
> existing in
> > > a
> > > > >major cyclical bear market of the type and scope we have not
seen for
> > > nearly
> > > > >a century. Should those conditions emerge, I believe that the
> enthusiasm
> > > > >for, and regulation of, derivatives will change markedly.
> > > > >
> > > > >I should, perhaps, add a few caveats regarding my opinions.
I am
> > > personally
> > > > >extremely bearish in my view of the equity markets for the
next
> decade.
> > > This
> > > > >is reflected in the fact that my investments have been 100%
in long
> term
> > > > >treasuries and bond funds for well over a year now and I am
even now
> > > > >completing the process of switching bond funds (most of
which contain
> > > GSE's
> > > > >and corporates) for treasuries. Futures trading is another
matter, I
> > > don't
> > > > >care if the market goes up or down as long as it does one or
the
> other,
> > > > >preferably in a trending manner. Finally, my investment hat
is in no
> way
> > > > >married to the bear case should strong evidence emerge to the
> contrary,
> > > > >however I am in no way interested in trying to time my
investments to
> > > catch
> > > > >the absolute bottom in this market.
> > > > >
> > > > >Earl
> > > > >
> > > > >----- Original Message -----
> > > > >From: <I4Lothian@xxxx>
> > > > >To: <realtraders@xxxx>
> > > > >Sent: Saturday, September 08, 2001 7:32 AM
> > > > >Subject: Re: [RT] Markets: Stock Index Futures and regulation
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > > Earl:
> > > > > >
> > > > > > With all due respect, stock "index" futures have been a
huge
> success.
> > > I
> > > > > > believe you wish to be skeptical of single stock
futures. And
> given
> > > then
> > > > > > attendance and interest shown by the futures and
securities
> industry
> > > this
> > > > > > week at a seminar in Chicago by the Futures Industry
Association,
> I
> > > beg to
> > > > > > differ with your conclusion.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Single Stock Futures, in my opinion, will be the single
largest
> new
> > > > >product
> > > > > > we have ever seen introduced. There will be three
exchanges in
> the
> > > U.S.
> > > > > > offering them, a very aggressive and with it Nasdaq-
LIFFE, the yet
> to
> > > be
> > > > > > named but formidable Chicago Joint Venture of the
CBOE/CME/CBOT
> and
> > > the
> > > > >just
> > > > > > announced AMEX. What product have we had launched by
three
> exchanges
> > > all
> > > > >at
> > > > > > the same time?
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Keep in mind that the banks wanted nothing to do with the
CBOT
> when
> > > they
> > > > > > launched the bonds. Six months later they were knocking
down the
> > > doors
> > > > >for
> > > > > > memberships and floor space. Look at the influence of
stock
> volumes
> > > from
> > > > > > tine introduction of options trading in the 1970s and
stock index
> > > futures
> > > > >in
> > > > > > the 1980s. Volume took off and never looked back.
Nearly 1/3 of
> the
> > > > >weekly
> > > > > > NYSE volume comes from program trading alone.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > The new single stock futures will offer tremendous
capital and
> > > operational
> > > > > > efficiencies to some of the largest players in the
industry. No
> more
> > > > >waiting
> > > > > > t+3 for stocks to settle. Same day settlement. Marked
to the
> market
> > > at
> > > > >the
> > > > > > same clearing house, the OCC, for all the single stock
futures and
> > > options
> > > > > > trading. Same clearing house for settlement and delivery
of
> options
> > > and
> > > > > > futures contracts.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Take then that the biggest corporate names in the world
are U.S.
> > > companies
> > > > > > that can be traded as SSF. Take then that the U.S.
capital
> markets
> > > are
> > > > >the
> > > > > > best in the world in terms of legal certainty, regulation
and
> > > fairness.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > These are all parts of the equation why single stock
futures will
> > > work.
> > > > >Will
> > > > > > they take volume from stocks? Yes and no. That same
argument was
> > > made
> > > > >when
> > > > > > options and indexes were introduced and they only added
to the
> > > liquidity
> > > > >of
> > > > > > the market. With the movement of time we have been able
to
> introduce
> > > > >better
> > > > > > and better contracts to specifically meet the needs of
traders,
> > > hedgers
> > > > >and
> > > > > > investors. We no longer need to run into gold or
soybeans to
> hedge
> > > our
> > > > > > inflation or deflation risk. These tools will only make
what
> people
> > > want
> > > > >to
> > > > > > do, and do, more efficient.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > And I for one and going to do my best to make sure they
will be
> > > > >successful.
> > > > > > Part of the reason I write my daily industry newsletter
is to help
> > > people
> > > > >in
> > > > > > the futures and securities industry manage the changes
all around
> us.
> > > Just
> > > > >in
> > > > > > the last week I have had a President and CEO of a U.S.
exchange
> sign
> > > up
> > > > >for
> > > > > > the letter. A Senior Vice President of one of the Chicago
> exchanges
> > > > >signed
> > > > > > up. A large division of a clearing FCM will shortly be
announcing
> > > they
> > > > >are
> > > > > > going to license my letter to offer to their clients and
to
> attract
> > > new
> > > > > > clients. They will be offering it at a single stock
futures
> > > newsletter.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > So, all the signs I see say that these new products are
going to
> work.
> > > > >And
> > > > > > as the Nasdaq-LIFFE said, they are going to "make" them
work. I
> have
> > > > >never
> > > > > > seen an exchange so confident, so focused on the good of
the
> customer,
> > > so
> > > > > > focused on offering a level playing field for all
participants as
> the
> > > > > > Nasdaq-LIFFE. And I believe them.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Regards,
> > > > > >
> > > > > > John J. Lothian
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Disclosure: Futures trading involves financial risk, lots
of it!
> John
> > > J.
> > > > > > Lothian is the President of the Electronic Trading
Division of The
> > > Price
> > > > > > Futures Group, Inc., an Introducing Broker clearing Man
Financial
> Inc.
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > In a message dated 9/8/01 7:17:41 AM Central Daylight
Time,
> > > > >eadamy@xxxx
> > > > > > writes:
> > > > > >
> > > > > > << I doubt that stock index futures are going to get very
far off
> the
> > > > >ground.
> > > > > > Essentially, stock index futures (low margin and high
leverage)
> are
> > > the
> > > > >last
> > > > > > nail in the coffin of post-29 market regulation. I
believe that
> we
> > > are in
> > > > > > the early stages of a major cyclical bear market and I
expect to
> see
> > > > >stock
> > > > > > market volumes diminish to levels not seen in decades as
a
> byproduct
> > > of
> > > > > > severe price declines ... the pendulum always swings
from one
> extreme
> > > to
> > > > >the
> > > > > > other. I further expect that liquidity in the futures
and options
> > > markets
> > > > > > will suffer.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > I find it especially ironic that the post-29 market and
banking
> > > > >regulations
> > > > > > were removed just as the markets moved to such excess.
The fact
> that
> > > > >these
> > > > > > regulations were seen to be inhibiting the upward move
of the
> markets
> > > > >should
> > > > > > have been a warning rather than a reason to remove the
> regulations.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Earl >>
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > > > > > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxx
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
> > > http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > > > >realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxx
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
> http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> > > >
> > > Rakesh
> > > > Sahgal
> > > >
> C
> > > > -165(1st Floor), Greater Kailash - I,
> > > >
> > > New
> > > > Delhi - 110 048
> > > >
> > > India.
> > > >
> > > Tel.:
> > > > 91-11-647-6462,91-11-643-0010
> > > >
> > > eMail:
> > > > rakeshsahgal@xxxx
> > > >
> > > rsahgal@xxxx
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > Rakesh Sahgal
> > > > Online Status:
> > > >
> > >
> <http://eudora.voicecontact.com/vc3/index.html?rakeshsahgal%
40eth.net><http:
> > >
> //eudora.voicecontact.com/vc3/index.html?rakeshsahgal%
40eth.net><http://www.
> > > eudora.com/products/voicecontact/>
> > > >
> > > >
> > >
> > >
> > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxx
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
> http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> >
> >
> > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxx
> >
> >
> >
> > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> >
> >
> >
------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ---------------------~-->
FREE COLLEGE MONEY
CLICK HERE to search
600,000 scholarships!
http://us.click.yahoo.com/47cccB/4m7CAA/ySSFAA/zMEolB/TM
---------------------------------------------------------------------~->
To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
|