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Not sure about this but I believe Chris Carolan made a reference to
an approx 58 year panic cycle counting back from 1987 which began
with Tulipmania.
--- In realtraders@xxxx, Dorothy Carter <dorothy.carter@xxxx> wrote:
> Thx to all who responded. I knew approx.. but was curous if the 18
yr or 72
> yr cycle pegged it..... doesn't appear so....
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Daniel Goncharoff" <thegonch@xxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxx>
> Sent: Monday, September 10, 2001 3:04 PM
> Subject: Re: [RT] Markets: Stock Index Futures and regulation - - -
- - - -
> Norman W. question for you...... :-)
>
>
> > 1637
> >
> > Dorothy Carter wrote:
> > >
> > > NORMAN: When was the tulip mania??? He mentioned that to me
once....
> > >
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: <chrischeatham@xxxx>
> > > To: <realtraders@xxxx>
> > > Sent: Monday, September 10, 2001 2:19 PM
> > > Subject: Re: [RT] Markets: Stock Index Futures and regulation
> > >
> > > > Hi Dorothy,
> > > >
> > > > Mustn't forget the 1785 panic either. For those interested,
the 72
> > > > year procession of the equinoxes, or whatever one chooses to
call it,
> > > > has been discussed extensively on the yahoo wheelsinthesky
list.
> > > >
> > > > CC
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > --- In realtraders@xxxx, Dorothy Carter <dorothy.carter@xxxx>
wrote:
> > > > > Anyone who follows cycles .. get out your calculators
depression
> > > > 1857 +
> > > > > 72 yrs = 1929+72 yrs = 2001 bingo...... :-)
> > > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > > From: "Daniel Goncharoff" <thegonch@xxxx>
> > > > > To: <realtraders@xxxx>
> > > > > Sent: Monday, September 10, 2001 9:19 AM
> > > > > Subject: Re: [RT] Markets: Stock Index Futures and
regulation
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > > Earl
> > > > > >
> > > > > > I have a different understanding of what has happened in
Japan. I
> > > > > > thought the drop in Japan was caused by two factors, a
massive
> > > > real
> > > > > > estate bubble combined with a real plateau in
manufacturing. Only
> > > > when
> > > > > > the bubble burst did it become clear that the real
economy was
> > > > > > deteriorating, and it never found a bottom.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > I also think the Japanese would disagree that their
homogeneity
> > > > is a
> > > > > > strength -- they are starting to come to the opinion that
it is
> > > > the
> > > > > > reason they 'can't get up'. There is no way to dispose of
old
> > > > baggage...
> > > > > >
> > > > > > As for 1929, I think the similarities are there. Raw
material
> > > > producers
> > > > > > have been struggling with deflation. The 'popular'
(populist?)
> > > > view
> > > > > > seems to favor less globalisation rather than more. There
is no
> > > > specific
> > > > > > global military threat, so the developed countries have
more
> > > > incentive
> > > > > > to fight over differences rather than smooth them over.
Traumatic
> > > > events
> > > > > > (by definition?) come when you don't expect them.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Regards
> > > > > > DanG
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Earl Adamy wrote:
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Rakesh,
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > As a trader I use technical analysis exclusively. My
bias toward
> > > > > technical
> > > > > > > analysis carries into longer term investing except when
I
> > > > believe there
> > > > > are
> > > > > > > extreme conditions in the market. I also have long had
an
> > > > interest in
> > > > > long
> > > > > > > term market history because I do believe that there are
lessons
> > > > to be
> > > > > > > learned from history and that markets move from one
extreme to
> > > > another
> > > > > and
> > > > > > > back. However first and foremost in trading and
investing is
> > > > capital
> > > > > > > preservation. Thus I was a couple of years early in
starting to
> > > > ease out
> > > > > of
> > > > > > > equity investments and I may be a couple of years late
in
> > > > easing back
> > > > > in.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > I believe that there are many similarities between the
current
> > > > US market
> > > > > and
> > > > > > > both the Japanese and post-crash (29) US market. There
are also
> > > > many
> > > > > > > differences ... one is the dependency of the US economy
on
> > > > services (the
> > > > > > > Japanese and 29 economies were manufacturing based) and
another
> > > > is the
> > > > > more
> > > > > > > homogeneous social makeup of the Japanese society. The
later is
> > > > > significant
> > > > > > > because the Japanese (and to a lesser degree European)
social
> > > > orders are
> > > > > > > less driven by free wheeling capitalism which I believe
has
> > > > been carried
> > > > > to
> > > > > > > an extreme in the US and (particularly in Japan) the
> > > > homogeneous society
> > > > > has
> > > > > > > eased the financial pain of depression. Never-the-less
there is
> > > > a
> > > > > creative
> > > > > > > and free wheeling spirit here which should not be
> > > > underestimated because
> > > > > it
> > > > > > > has proven itself capable of adapting to (and leading)
> > > > tremendous
> > > > > challenge
> > > > > > > and change for several centuries.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Still, in my mind, the excesses have been carried so
far over a
> > > > period
> > > > > of
> > > > > > > decades that there must be a long/steep corrective
period. The
> > > > pain will
> > > > > > > happen ... it is up to those attempting to manage the
economy
> > > > whether
> > > > > the
> > > > > > > correction will be long or will be deep. In the US I
would add
> > > > that
> > > > > there
> > > > > > > has been a general preference for the public rather than
> > > > business to
> > > > > take
> > > > > > > the brunt of economic pain e.g. the banks are profiting
> > > > handsomely on
> > > > > rate
> > > > > > > spreads while the public is paying relatively high
rates for
> > > > credit.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > All selling machines are always in gear and Wall Street
is no
> > > > exception.
> > > > > > > When sales slow and inventories pile up at car dealers
you
> > > > don't hear
> > > > > them
> > > > > > > running negative advertising, neither does Wall Street.
The
> > > > astute
> > > > > investor
> > > > > > > will take some independent measures and reach
conclusions
> > > > independent of
> > > > > the
> > > > > > > hype.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > As for investing in a major turn in the markets, on
technical
> > > > basis I
> > > > > will
> > > > > > > need to see weekly charts with well established bullish
trends
> > > > > (particularly
> > > > > > > good looking, bullish linear regression channels) and
on a
> > > > fundamental
> > > > > basis
> > > > > > > I want to see companies with strong market positions,
honest
> > > > accounting
> > > > > and
> > > > > > > good values in the stocks in which I invest ... this
requires a
> > > > major
> > > > > mind
> > > > > > > shift from investing in markets which are already in a
steadily
> > > > rising
> > > > > bull
> > > > > > > market.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > What I really expect to see is the time come when
absolutely no
> > > > one
> > > > > wants to
> > > > > > > own stocks (this last happened in the 30's and 40's)
and that
> > > > is when I
> > > > > > > expect to start shopping for real bargains with real
earnings
> > > > and real
> > > > > > > dividends. In the interim, I continue to like bonds and
believe
> > > > they are
> > > > > > > probably a double over the next 5-10 years (look at the
history
> > > > of
> > > > > interest
> > > > > > > rates in the 30's and modern Japan). I remain undecided
on
> > > > currency
> > > > > issues
> > > > > > > because I think the issues are more degrees of pain
rather than
> > > > a safe
> > > > > > > haven. If world economic woes bring a rise in
nationalism and
> > > > > > > political/social dislocation (I think this is a good
> > > > possibility), arms
> > > > > > > makers may lead an economic rebound.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > More than anything else, one must continuously observe
> > > > (independently of
> > > > > the
> > > > > > > media), think, and adapt to conditions as they unfold.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Earl
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > > > > From: "Rakesh Sahgal" <rsahgal@xxxx>
> > > > > > > To: <realtraders@xxxx>
> > > > > > > Sent: Sunday, September 09, 2001 8:08 AM
> > > > > > > Subject: Re: [RT] Markets: Stock Index Futures and
regulation
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > Earl,
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > In your write up on the prospects for the economy in
your
> > > > country you
> > > > > have
> > > > > > > > primarily relied upon fundamental concerns(if I
understand you
> > > > > correctly)
> > > > > > > > which are coming to the fore now, rather being touted
by the
> > > > salesmen
> > > > > of
> > > > > > > > Wall St. now when the markets have already tanked.
> > > > > > > > These factors were not being cited by Wall St. gurus
and their
> > > > > underlings
> > > > > > > > globally earlier on, when the markets were touching
the skies.
> > > > > > > > Cant one infer from these shenanigans that "they" have
> > > > exhausted
> > > > > > > > inventories and and are now re-stocking or is this
assumption
> > > > > erroneous?
> > > > > > > > This I ask in light of the fact that sooner than
later the
> > > > easing
> > > > > > > > liiquidity conditions will make themselves felt in the
> > > > economy. Also
> > > > > how
> > > > > > > > relevant are the comparisons of the U.S economy with
the
> > > > Japanese
> > > > > economy
> > > > > > > > with their structural differences( or am I again
ignorant of
> > > > the
> > > > > > > similarities)?
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > Once Ira had posted that the Wall St. selling machine
always
> > > > finds
> > > > > > > > stories/concepts to tout after the current rage is
dead and
> > > > buried.
> > > > > Are
> > > > > > > you
> > > > > > > > saying that the conditions are going to be so dire
that the
> > > > markets
> > > > > are
> > > > > > > not
> > > > > > > > going to reward performance and/or the prospects of
> > > > performance of the
> > > > > > > next
> > > > > > > > great "find"?
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > You further state in your message below, that you are
> > > > willing to
> > > > > change
> > > > > > > > your analysis contingent upon contrary evidence
emerging.
> > > > Given your
> > > > > very
> > > > > > > > strong views what would you term conclusive evidence
keeping
> > > > in view
> > > > > the
> > > > > > > > fact the charts will essentially lead the economy and
> > > > corporate
> > > > > > > > performance? Would you wait for confirmatory economic
data
> > > > and enter
> > > > > the
> > > > > > > > markets on pull backs in the new trend or trade major
support
> > > > > > > > points/projections with stop losses?
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > Look forward to your comments.
> > > > > > > > Regards.
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > Rakesh
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > At 08:06 AM 9/8/01 -0600, you wrote:
> > > > > > > > >Yes, that was a typo, I was referring to the
introduction of
> > > > single
> > > > > stock
> > > > > > > > >futures. I do not disagree with your observations as
they
> > > > relate to
> > > > > > > current
> > > > > > > > >market conditions. My comments are directed toward
conditions
> > > > > existing in
> > > > > > > a
> > > > > > > > >major cyclical bear market of the type and scope we
have not
> > > > seen for
> > > > > > > nearly
> > > > > > > > >a century. Should those conditions emerge, I believe
that the
> > > > > enthusiasm
> > > > > > > > >for, and regulation of, derivatives will change
markedly.
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > >I should, perhaps, add a few caveats regarding my
opinions.
> > > > I am
> > > > > > > personally
> > > > > > > > >extremely bearish in my view of the equity markets
for the
> > > > next
> > > > > decade.
> > > > > > > This
> > > > > > > > >is reflected in the fact that my investments have
been 100%
> > > > in long
> > > > > term
> > > > > > > > >treasuries and bond funds for well over a year now
and I am
> > > > even now
> > > > > > > > >completing the process of switching bond funds (most
of
> > > > which contain
> > > > > > > GSE's
> > > > > > > > >and corporates) for treasuries. Futures trading is
another
> > > > matter, I
> > > > > > > don't
> > > > > > > > >care if the market goes up or down as long as it
does one or
> > > > the
> > > > > other,
> > > > > > > > >preferably in a trending manner. Finally, my
investment hat
> > > > is in no
> > > > > way
> > > > > > > > >married to the bear case should strong evidence
emerge to the
> > > > > contrary,
> > > > > > > > >however I am in no way interested in trying to time
my
> > > > investments to
> > > > > > > catch
> > > > > > > > >the absolute bottom in this market.
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > >Earl
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > >----- Original Message -----
> > > > > > > > >From: <I4Lothian@xxxx>
> > > > > > > > >To: <realtraders@xxxx>
> > > > > > > > >Sent: Saturday, September 08, 2001 7:32 AM
> > > > > > > > >Subject: Re: [RT] Markets: Stock Index Futures and
regulation
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > Earl:
> > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > With all due respect, stock "index" futures have
been a
> > > > huge
> > > > > success.
> > > > > > > I
> > > > > > > > > > believe you wish to be skeptical of single stock
> > > > futures. And
> > > > > given
> > > > > > > then
> > > > > > > > > > attendance and interest shown by the futures and
> > > > securities
> > > > > industry
> > > > > > > this
> > > > > > > > > > week at a seminar in Chicago by the Futures
Industry
> > > > Association,
> > > > > I
> > > > > > > beg to
> > > > > > > > > > differ with your conclusion.
> > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > Single Stock Futures, in my opinion, will be the
single
> > > > largest
> > > > > new
> > > > > > > > >product
> > > > > > > > > > we have ever seen introduced. There will be three
> > > > exchanges in
> > > > > the
> > > > > > > U.S.
> > > > > > > > > > offering them, a very aggressive and with it
Nasdaq-
> > > > LIFFE, the yet
> > > > > to
> > > > > > > be
> > > > > > > > > > named but formidable Chicago Joint Venture of the
> > > > CBOE/CME/CBOT
> > > > > and
> > > > > > > the
> > > > > > > > >just
> > > > > > > > > > announced AMEX. What product have we had
launched by
> > > > three
> > > > > exchanges
> > > > > > > all
> > > > > > > > >at
> > > > > > > > > > the same time?
> > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > Keep in mind that the banks wanted nothing to do
with the
> > > > CBOT
> > > > > when
> > > > > > > they
> > > > > > > > > > launched the bonds. Six months later they were
knocking
> > > > down the
> > > > > > > doors
> > > > > > > > >for
> > > > > > > > > > memberships and floor space. Look at the
influence of
> > > > stock
> > > > > volumes
> > > > > > > from
> > > > > > > > > > tine introduction of options trading in the 1970s
and
> > > > stock index
> > > > > > > futures
> > > > > > > > >in
> > > > > > > > > > the 1980s. Volume took off and never looked back.
> > > > Nearly 1/3 of
> > > > > the
> > > > > > > > >weekly
> > > > > > > > > > NYSE volume comes from program trading alone.
> > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > The new single stock futures will offer tremendous
> > > > capital and
> > > > > > > operational
> > > > > > > > > > efficiencies to some of the largest players in the
> > > > industry. No
> > > > > more
> > > > > > > > >waiting
> > > > > > > > > > t+3 for stocks to settle. Same day settlement.
Marked
> > > > to the
> > > > > market
> > > > > > > at
> > > > > > > > >the
> > > > > > > > > > same clearing house, the OCC, for all the single
stock
> > > > futures and
> > > > > > > options
> > > > > > > > > > trading. Same clearing house for settlement and
delivery
> > > > of
> > > > > options
> > > > > > > and
> > > > > > > > > > futures contracts.
> > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > Take then that the biggest corporate names in the
world
> > > > are U.S.
> > > > > > > companies
> > > > > > > > > > that can be traded as SSF. Take then that the
U.S.
> > > > capital
> > > > > markets
> > > > > > > are
> > > > > > > > >the
> > > > > > > > > > best in the world in terms of legal certainty,
regulation
> > > > and
> > > > > > > fairness.
> > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > These are all parts of the equation why single
stock
> > > > futures will
> > > > > > > work.
> > > > > > > > >Will
> > > > > > > > > > they take volume from stocks? Yes and no. That
same
> > > > argument was
> > > > > > > made
> > > > > > > > >when
> > > > > > > > > > options and indexes were introduced and they only
added
> > > > to the
> > > > > > > liquidity
> > > > > > > > >of
> > > > > > > > > > the market. With the movement of time we have
been able
> > > > to
> > > > > introduce
> > > > > > > > >better
> > > > > > > > > > and better contracts to specifically meet the
needs of
> > > > traders,
> > > > > > > hedgers
> > > > > > > > >and
> > > > > > > > > > investors. We no longer need to run into gold or
> > > > soybeans to
> > > > > hedge
> > > > > > > our
> > > > > > > > > > inflation or deflation risk. These tools will
only make
> > > > what
> > > > > people
> > > > > > > want
> > > > > > > > >to
> > > > > > > > > > do, and do, more efficient.
> > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > And I for one and going to do my best to make
sure they
> > > > will be
> > > > > > > > >successful.
> > > > > > > > > > Part of the reason I write my daily industry
newsletter
> > > > is to help
> > > > > > > people
> > > > > > > > >in
> > > > > > > > > > the futures and securities industry manage the
changes
> > > > all around
> > > > > us.
> > > > > > > Just
> > > > > > > > >in
> > > > > > > > > > the last week I have had a President and CEO of a
U.S.
> > > > exchange
> > > > > sign
> > > > > > > up
> > > > > > > > >for
> > > > > > > > > > the letter. A Senior Vice President of one of
the Chicago
> > > > > exchanges
> > > > > > > > >signed
> > > > > > > > > > up. A large division of a clearing FCM will
shortly be
> > > > announcing
> > > > > > > they
> > > > > > > > >are
> > > > > > > > > > going to license my letter to offer to their
clients and
> > > > to
> > > > > attract
> > > > > > > new
> > > > > > > > > > clients. They will be offering it at a single
stock
> > > > futures
> > > > > > > newsletter.
> > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > So, all the signs I see say that these new
products are
> > > > going to
> > > > > work.
> > > > > > > > >And
> > > > > > > > > > as the Nasdaq-LIFFE said, they are going
to "make" them
> > > > work. I
> > > > > have
> > > > > > > > >never
> > > > > > > > > > seen an exchange so confident, so focused on the
good of
> > > > the
> > > > > customer,
> > > > > > > so
> > > > > > > > > > focused on offering a level playing field for all
> > > > participants as
> > > > > the
> > > > > > > > > > Nasdaq-LIFFE. And I believe them.
> > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > Regards,
> > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > John J. Lothian
> > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > Disclosure: Futures trading involves financial
risk, lots
> > > > of it!
> > > > > John
> > > > > > > J.
> > > > > > > > > > Lothian is the President of the Electronic Trading
> > > > Division of The
> > > > > > > Price
> > > > > > > > > > Futures Group, Inc., an Introducing Broker
clearing Man
> > > > Financial
> > > > > Inc.
> > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > In a message dated 9/8/01 7:17:41 AM Central
Daylight
> > > > Time,
> > > > > > > > >eadamy@xxxx
> > > > > > > > > > writes:
> > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > << I doubt that stock index futures are going to
get very
> > > > far off
> > > > > the
> > > > > > > > >ground.
> > > > > > > > > > Essentially, stock index futures (low margin and
high
> > > > leverage)
> > > > > are
> > > > > > > the
> > > > > > > > >last
> > > > > > > > > > nail in the coffin of post-29 market regulation.
I
> > > > believe that
> > > > > we
> > > > > > > are in
> > > > > > > > > > the early stages of a major cyclical bear market
and I
> > > > expect to
> > > > > see
> > > > > > > > >stock
> > > > > > > > > > market volumes diminish to levels not seen in
decades as
> > > > a
> > > > > byproduct
> > > > > > > of
> > > > > > > > > > severe price declines ... the pendulum always
swings
> > > > from one
> > > > > extreme
> > > > > > > to
> > > > > > > > >the
> > > > > > > > > > other. I further expect that liquidity in the
futures
> > > > and options
> > > > > > > markets
> > > > > > > > > > will suffer.
> > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > I find it especially ironic that the post-29
market and
> > > > banking
> > > > > > > > >regulations
> > > > > > > > > > were removed just as the markets moved to such
excess.
> > > > The fact
> > > > > that
> > > > > > > > >these
> > > > > > > > > > regulations were seen to be inhibiting the
upward move
> > > > of the
> > > > > markets
> > > > > > > > >should
> > > > > > > > > > have been a warning rather than a reason to
remove the
> > > > > regulations.
> > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > Earl >>
> > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > >
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> > > > > > > > > >
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> > > > > > > > > >
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> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > >
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> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Rakesh
> > > > > > > > Sahgal
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > C
> > > > > > > > -165(1st Floor), Greater Kailash - I,
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > New
> > > > > > > > Delhi - 110 048
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > India.
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Tel.:
> > > > > > > > 91-11-647-6462,91-11-643-0010
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > eMail:
> > > > > > > > rakeshsahgal@xxxx
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > rsahgal@xxxx
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > Rakesh Sahgal
> > > > > > > > Online Status:
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > <http://eudora.voicecontact.com/vc3/index.html?rakeshsahgal%
> > > > 40eth.net><http:
> > > > > > >
> > > > > file://eudora.voicecontact.com/vc3/index.html?rakeshsahgal%
> > > > 40eth.net><http:/
> > > > > /www.
> > > > > > > eudora.com/products/voicecontact/>
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
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