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It will be interesting to see how it all plays out. I have more targets to the
downside.
Dorothy Carter wrote:
> I think that the public will increase the mutual fund redemptions when
> obvious that March lows are not going to hold.. Last year they got duked
> paying taxes on gains they did not have. I don't think they will hang
> around for Oct. mutual fund year end to pay taxes again on gains that don't
> exist.
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Ira Tunik" <irat@xxxxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Sunday, September 09, 2001 9:54 PM
> Subject: Re: [RT] 1929 Comparisons
>
> > There are factors in this market that were not around in the 1920s and
> 30s. The
> > only thing that will allow a collapse of this market is the public. Right
> now
> > we still have more mutual funds then ever before. To get a complete
> picture of
> > what is involved one would have to know what each of these funds is
> allowed to
> > invest in, how much of there total assets must be in stocks at all times,
> how
> > much can they have in cash and what it would take for them to close their
> > doors. With trillions in various retirement and investment funds
> deposited in
> > mutual funds that must retain a stock position their only alternative is
> to
> > rotate from one sector to another. The real crash will come when and if
> > redemptions start to accelerate and these funds start closing their doors.
> > Right now all you have is a minor retracement in the indexes. Yes some
> stocks
> > are worth zero and others are down 90%, but there are still those that are
> > selling with PE ratios of 50 to 100. Because a company lost money last
> quarter
> > doesn't mean that it is going out of business or that its growth potential
> is no
> > longer there. I am not a bull or preaching a bullish scenario, I am only
> > pointing out that if this thing starts to snowball, it will be redemptions
> that
> > do it. With over 2 billion shares traded a day, how long would it take
> to
> > liquidate $4 + trillion dollars in stock assets? Until the public throws
> in the
> > towel, I don't believe a real good old fashioned crash will occur. Right
> now
> > the public seems to be, "fat, dumb, and happy". this is just one mans
> opinion.
> >
> > Dorothy Carter wrote:
> >
> > > Just wait long enough.. the DJIA and the small and mid cap stocks where
> the
> > > money managers have been hiding will come under pressure as well.. The
> > > strength in the DJIA has not been confirmed by any of the other
> averages..
> > > and recent weakness in Transports which usually leads to DJIA does not
> look
> > > good for the bullish case.... The bullish case was that manipulating 30
> DJIA
> > > stocks and trying to run for 11000 would cause short covering and that
> the
> > > NAZ would turn around and rally to follow the senior index.... Looking
> at
> > > the DJIA 30 stocks only a couple have held up and those have downside
> > > targets now.. If I owned the DJIA 30 stocks I would not be sleeping at
> nite
> > > any better than if I owned the NAZ... probably worse as it has a lot of
> > > catching up to do... so to each their own bunk I guess......
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: "Ralph Volpe" <rjv@xxxxxxxxxx>
> > > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > Sent: Sunday, September 09, 2001 4:15 PM
> > > Subject: Re: [RT] 1929 Comparisons
> > >
> > > > A chart was recently disseminated that was supposed to show the
> > > similarities
> > > > of the 1929 crash to the market today. Let me comment on that very
> > > briefly --
> > > > it's bunk!
> > > >
> > > > The collapse today has so far been a token crash that's primarily
> > > affecting
> > > > the tech stocks. Let me point out that the Dow has only lost 17
> percent in
> > > > nearly 21 months (and that's a good Fib. relationship). Investors in
> 1929
> > > > would have been ecstatic with that type of decline. As well, the
> S&P500
> > > has
> > > > lost 25 percent in the same time period. If you compare years
> 2000/2001
> > > > against 1929 you'll see that there's a world of a difference in price
> > > > deterioration.
> > > >
> > > > Also, you're drawing trend lines on a semi-logarithmic scale and I
> don't
> > > know
> > > > if that's an accurate way to arrive at comparisons. For example, Back
> in
> > > 1929
> > > > the S&P lost 50% in a month after the '29 top and up to 60% only a few
> > > months
> > > > later. The flaw in such comparisons is simple: you can't compare
> apples to
> > > > oranges -- all things considered, it's impossible to draw comparisons.
> For
> > > > example, the universe of traders and trading vehicles are totally
> > > different,
> > > > commodity prices may be totally different, and the government has more
> > > > accurate data to proactively involve themselves at an earlier stage.
> On a
> > > > final note, even though the scale in the gif were semi-logarithmic
> there
> > > > wasn't any adjustment in price to account for inflation --- and that
> makes
> > > a
> > > > world of a difference. And, although I'm into celestial influences,
> are
> > > they
> > > > the same? Let's ask those who follow this discipline.
> > > >
> > > > On a note I'm happy there's so much negativity in RT. Why? I see a
> nice
> > > > counter wave here that I think will carry for several weeks. I'm
> basing
> > > this
> > > > on an Elliot pattern and some Fib relationships that may hold. So,
> with
> > > all
> > > > this negativity, it may be a great contrarian investment.
> > > >
> > > > Ralph
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
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> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
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> >
> >
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>
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