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I think that the public will increase the mutual fund redemptions when
obvious that March lows are not going to hold.. Last year they got duked
paying taxes on gains they did not have. I don't think they will hang
around for Oct. mutual fund year end to pay taxes again on gains that don't
exist.
----- Original Message -----
From: "Ira Tunik" <irat@xxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Sunday, September 09, 2001 9:54 PM
Subject: Re: [RT] 1929 Comparisons
> There are factors in this market that were not around in the 1920s and
30s. The
> only thing that will allow a collapse of this market is the public. Right
now
> we still have more mutual funds then ever before. To get a complete
picture of
> what is involved one would have to know what each of these funds is
allowed to
> invest in, how much of there total assets must be in stocks at all times,
how
> much can they have in cash and what it would take for them to close their
> doors. With trillions in various retirement and investment funds
deposited in
> mutual funds that must retain a stock position their only alternative is
to
> rotate from one sector to another. The real crash will come when and if
> redemptions start to accelerate and these funds start closing their doors.
> Right now all you have is a minor retracement in the indexes. Yes some
stocks
> are worth zero and others are down 90%, but there are still those that are
> selling with PE ratios of 50 to 100. Because a company lost money last
quarter
> doesn't mean that it is going out of business or that its growth potential
is no
> longer there. I am not a bull or preaching a bullish scenario, I am only
> pointing out that if this thing starts to snowball, it will be redemptions
that
> do it. With over 2 billion shares traded a day, how long would it take
to
> liquidate $4 + trillion dollars in stock assets? Until the public throws
in the
> towel, I don't believe a real good old fashioned crash will occur. Right
now
> the public seems to be, "fat, dumb, and happy". this is just one mans
opinion.
>
> Dorothy Carter wrote:
>
> > Just wait long enough.. the DJIA and the small and mid cap stocks where
the
> > money managers have been hiding will come under pressure as well.. The
> > strength in the DJIA has not been confirmed by any of the other
averages..
> > and recent weakness in Transports which usually leads to DJIA does not
look
> > good for the bullish case.... The bullish case was that manipulating 30
DJIA
> > stocks and trying to run for 11000 would cause short covering and that
the
> > NAZ would turn around and rally to follow the senior index.... Looking
at
> > the DJIA 30 stocks only a couple have held up and those have downside
> > targets now.. If I owned the DJIA 30 stocks I would not be sleeping at
nite
> > any better than if I owned the NAZ... probably worse as it has a lot of
> > catching up to do... so to each their own bunk I guess......
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Ralph Volpe" <rjv@xxxxxxxxxx>
> > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Sent: Sunday, September 09, 2001 4:15 PM
> > Subject: Re: [RT] 1929 Comparisons
> >
> > > A chart was recently disseminated that was supposed to show the
> > similarities
> > > of the 1929 crash to the market today. Let me comment on that very
> > briefly --
> > > it's bunk!
> > >
> > > The collapse today has so far been a token crash that's primarily
> > affecting
> > > the tech stocks. Let me point out that the Dow has only lost 17
percent in
> > > nearly 21 months (and that's a good Fib. relationship). Investors in
1929
> > > would have been ecstatic with that type of decline. As well, the
S&P500
> > has
> > > lost 25 percent in the same time period. If you compare years
2000/2001
> > > against 1929 you'll see that there's a world of a difference in price
> > > deterioration.
> > >
> > > Also, you're drawing trend lines on a semi-logarithmic scale and I
don't
> > know
> > > if that's an accurate way to arrive at comparisons. For example, Back
in
> > 1929
> > > the S&P lost 50% in a month after the '29 top and up to 60% only a few
> > months
> > > later. The flaw in such comparisons is simple: you can't compare
apples to
> > > oranges -- all things considered, it's impossible to draw comparisons.
For
> > > example, the universe of traders and trading vehicles are totally
> > different,
> > > commodity prices may be totally different, and the government has more
> > > accurate data to proactively involve themselves at an earlier stage.
On a
> > > final note, even though the scale in the gif were semi-logarithmic
there
> > > wasn't any adjustment in price to account for inflation --- and that
makes
> > a
> > > world of a difference. And, although I'm into celestial influences,
are
> > they
> > > the same? Let's ask those who follow this discipline.
> > >
> > > On a note I'm happy there's so much negativity in RT. Why? I see a
nice
> > > counter wave here that I think will carry for several weeks. I'm
basing
> > this
> > > on an Elliot pattern and some Fib relationships that may hold. So,
with
> > all
> > > this negativity, it may be a great contrarian investment.
> > >
> > > Ralph
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> > >
> >
> >
> > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >
> >
> >
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http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
>
>
>
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>
>
>
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