|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
Just wait long enough.. the DJIA and the small and mid cap stocks where the
money managers have been hiding will come under pressure as well.. The
strength in the DJIA has not been confirmed by any of the other averages..
and recent weakness in Transports which usually leads to DJIA does not look
good for the bullish case.... The bullish case was that manipulating 30 DJIA
stocks and trying to run for 11000 would cause short covering and that the
NAZ would turn around and rally to follow the senior index.... Looking at
the DJIA 30 stocks only a couple have held up and those have downside
targets now.. If I owned the DJIA 30 stocks I would not be sleeping at nite
any better than if I owned the NAZ... probably worse as it has a lot of
catching up to do... so to each their own bunk I guess......
----- Original Message -----
From: "Ralph Volpe" <rjv@xxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Sunday, September 09, 2001 4:15 PM
Subject: Re: [RT] 1929 Comparisons
> A chart was recently disseminated that was supposed to show the
similarities
> of the 1929 crash to the market today. Let me comment on that very
briefly --
> it's bunk!
>
> The collapse today has so far been a token crash that's primarily
affecting
> the tech stocks. Let me point out that the Dow has only lost 17 percent in
> nearly 21 months (and that's a good Fib. relationship). Investors in 1929
> would have been ecstatic with that type of decline. As well, the S&P500
has
> lost 25 percent in the same time period. If you compare years 2000/2001
> against 1929 you'll see that there's a world of a difference in price
> deterioration.
>
> Also, you're drawing trend lines on a semi-logarithmic scale and I don't
know
> if that's an accurate way to arrive at comparisons. For example, Back in
1929
> the S&P lost 50% in a month after the '29 top and up to 60% only a few
months
> later. The flaw in such comparisons is simple: you can't compare apples to
> oranges -- all things considered, it's impossible to draw comparisons. For
> example, the universe of traders and trading vehicles are totally
different,
> commodity prices may be totally different, and the government has more
> accurate data to proactively involve themselves at an earlier stage. On a
> final note, even though the scale in the gif were semi-logarithmic there
> wasn't any adjustment in price to account for inflation --- and that makes
a
> world of a difference. And, although I'm into celestial influences, are
they
> the same? Let's ask those who follow this discipline.
>
> On a note I'm happy there's so much negativity in RT. Why? I see a nice
> counter wave here that I think will carry for several weeks. I'm basing
this
> on an Elliot pattern and some Fib relationships that may hold. So, with
all
> this negativity, it may be a great contrarian investment.
>
> Ralph
>
>
>
> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>
>
>
> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
>
------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ---------------------~-->
Get your FREE credit report with a FREE CreditCheck
Monitoring Service trial
http://us.click.yahoo.com/MDsVHB/bQ8CAA/ySSFAA/zMEolB/TM
---------------------------------------------------------------------~->
To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
|