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A chart was recently disseminated that was supposed to show the similarities
of the 1929 crash to the market today. Let me comment on that very briefly --
it's bunk!
The collapse today has so far been a token crash that's primarily affecting
the tech stocks. Let me point out that the Dow has only lost 17 percent in
nearly 21 months (and that's a good Fib. relationship). Investors in 1929
would have been ecstatic with that type of decline. As well, the S&P500 has
lost 25 percent in the same time period. If you compare years 2000/2001
against 1929 you'll see that there's a world of a difference in price
deterioration.
Also, you're drawing trend lines on a semi-logarithmic scale and I don't know
if that's an accurate way to arrive at comparisons. For example, Back in 1929
the S&P lost 50% in a month after the '29 top and up to 60% only a few months
later. The flaw in such comparisons is simple: you can't compare apples to
oranges -- all things considered, it's impossible to draw comparisons. For
example, the universe of traders and trading vehicles are totally different,
commodity prices may be totally different, and the government has more
accurate data to proactively involve themselves at an earlier stage. On a
final note, even though the scale in the gif were semi-logarithmic there
wasn't any adjustment in price to account for inflation --- and that makes a
world of a difference. And, although I'm into celestial influences, are they
the same? Let's ask those who follow this discipline.
On a note I'm happy there's so much negativity in RT. Why? I see a nice
counter wave here that I think will carry for several weeks. I'm basing this
on an Elliot pattern and some Fib relationships that may hold. So, with all
this negativity, it may be a great contrarian investment.
Ralph
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