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Traders ! ... With us, it tends to be gloom or boom and nothing much in
the middle. This situation is not so terribly complicated in my thinking.
The NAS got out of control .. insanely out of control. Kids, (30's and
younger), thought that fortune lay at the end of buying anything high tech
and doubling your money in a month .. or a week .. hell, this investing
thing wasn't work, it wasn't gambling, it was a gift.
Then, stretched way beyond the limit of any common sense, the bubble burst.
The NAS has now fallen from 5200 to 1600. It's been in a clear cut bear
market for at least two years now. The SP500 and DOW have done much better
and the reason is, the NAS money had to go to other stocks. To hell with
bonds or savings accounts or CD's .... STOCKS! Immediate fortune. Now,
those blue chips are beginning to join their NAS brothers and drop away
some. BUT ... the blues were never part of the bubble .. never part of the
insanity. I believe that the NAS, over-all, is back in line with reality.
Blues were never so far out of reality and may also soon be in line.
This brings us to two thoughts. 1. The markets will continue to sell off
regardless of value until they are way to hell over-sold. 2. If #1
happens, small investors, (mutual funds), will be depleted in a major way
and the hawks are going to find the chickens are no longer in the game.
I'm just a peanut but I hope to hell we don't drive the little guys out.
I'm not sure I can make money simply guessing where the program traders are
heading for next. I need the little guys to inject greed, impatience,
immaturity and dreams into the markets for me to make money.
Anyway, my take is that we won't have a capitulation. I don't think the
little guys are going to pull what's left. They may not put more in if we
hurt them much more but I think they've dug their heels in and won't be
shoved out now. Remember the tech bubble and how we all knew it had to end
any day? Well, not only did it keep going but the big money went in too
after they saw they couldn't turn it back. I think the only capitulation
we are going to see is us.
I sold my MCHM at 6.95 after market on the news and before it tanked. I
have some LU, some JNPR and some TSO. Other than that, I'm short a couple
high end retailers and overall, I'm 78% cash. We're do for an old
fashiioned roast and the shorters are going to be the main course. I'm
very cautious here.
Have a great weekend all ... Sorry for the longer post .. I don't post
often .. Good thing, huh? :)
Bob
At 03:36 PM 9/7/01 -0700, you wrote:
>The cat stopped climbing the stairs back in 1999. Now what happened in
>1999? Why was that the top of the stairs for now? Can anyone point to the
>seminal factor that stopped the rise, the date, the time, the details, etc..
>Was it dividend extremes? PE extremes? When were the first "F" rate and
>discount rate rises? Who were the smart dudes that stopped buying and
>started selling in 1999? Answer that and then answer under what conditions
>will they start buying again and when might that be. This is some
>interesting market history being created right now. When looking at the
>Monthly INDU it is easy to get the impression that we are witnessing the end
>of something that has had decades of growth and is now in the late stages of
>its growth/death cycle. The significance is of biblical proportions and
>will need something of a spiritual nature to resurrect it. The INDU still
>needs to drop a minimum of 600 points to get into the 2.xx % range. Fed
>easing only effects one part of the valuation equation. Price, dividends,
>earnings also have to come into line with the reality of growth and growth
>expectations. Stimulus without responce means this thing could spiral
>downstairs into the basement as in snowballs growing larger as they roll
>downhill. Politicians are beginning to point fingers of blame now so its
>getting serious enough to call it a train wreck. Pushing on a string and
>train wrecks have a similar appearance.
>
>bobr
>
>
>
>----- Original Message -----
>From: "Don Ewers" <dbewers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>Sent: Friday, September 07, 2001 3:06 PM
>Subject: Re: [RT] s&p .. Where did that cat go?
>
>
>> BobR,
>> Sage advice, never thought about the cat going more than one way.
>>
>> The cat did bounce from 1088.50 (globex) to 1009 early though, then
>decided
>> to go downstairs?
>>
>> I painfully know as my 1088.25 (fading a 60min fib expansion from 8-27 to
>> 8-30 target 1086.50 was missed in the globex by a tic) only to hop on late
>> and then watch a 12+ H win turn into a BE trade before I could say, what
>the
>> . . .
>>
>> I don't know about anyone else, but this is brutal to trade
>intraday/night?
>> don ewers
>>
>> ----- Original Message -----
>> From: "BobR" <bobrabcd@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>> Sent: Friday, September 07, 2001 3:29 PM
>> Subject: Re: [RT] s&p .. Where did that cat go?
>>
>>
>> > Think of the dead cat bounce as not off the floor, but off of a stairway
>> > with each bounce occurring off a lower step. Today the first bounce was
>> > from the -0.382 extension of yesterday's range, that took the ES back to
>> the
>> > Open as measured at midnight, then the bounce from the next lower step
>was
>> > only up to the dynamic midpoint. The day ended on the lower step. With
>a
>> > little visualization two mini head and shoulder patterns can be seen
>> formed
>> > by the two bounces. The last H&S bounce projects at least another 10
>> points
>> > down.
>> >
>> > bobr
>> >
>> > ----- Original Message -----
>> > From: "Don Thompson" <detomps@xxxxxxxxxxx>
>> > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>> > Sent: Friday, September 07, 2001 1:09 PM
>> > Subject: Re: [RT] s&p .. Where did that cat go?
>> >
>> >
>> > > Forecasting is a tough business...
>> > >
>> > > Ben,,,Where did that cat go?
>> > >
>> > > LOL...
>> > >
>> > > Not laughing at you or anything. Looks like this market is serious
>> about
>> > > continueing down..
>> > >
>> > > Don
>> > >
>> > >
>> > >
>> > >
>> > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
>> > > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>> > >
>> > >
>> > >
>> > > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
>> http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
>> > >
>> > >
>> >
>> >
>> > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
>> > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
>http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
>> >
>> >
>>
>>
>>
>> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
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>>
>>
>>
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>>
>
>
>To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
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>
>Attachment Converted: "c:\internet\eudora\attach\INDUm1.gif"
>
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