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Instead of trying to predict the future, I would pay attention to
volatility and risk and balance portfolios accordingly. Attention to risk
management will keep you out of trouble.
-- John
On Mon, 3 Sep 2001, James Alvis wrote:
> The bear market of 1974 not only provided a chance to buy stocks with 6 PE
> and a 6% dividend yield; it produced a market psychology that many of
> today's younger traders might find almost unimaginable. Following the
> "go-go" market top in 1969, the market decline culminated in a slow grind
> lower, month after disappointing month, until bullish psychology was
> completely dashed. At the bottom, very few people were interested in owning
> stocks. Many mutual funds (darlings of the 60's) traded below their net
> asset value on very low volume. Many owners of such funds could barely
> bring themselves to check the price of their funds in the Sunday paper since
> they grew to expect the values would invariably be unchanged to lower.
> Unlike 1987 or 1992 when sentiment rebounded more quickly, the protracted
> decline of 1974 soured many investors on stocks for years to come.
>
> I am not suggesting that we are headed for a repeat of 1974; I do not think
> any of us can divine the future. But looking back can be worthwhile, if
> only to remind ourselves that markets will find a way to surprise the
> majority of investors and downtrends feed on buyers turned sellers who
> "didn't think it would go this low."
>
> Have a good week,
> Jim Alvis
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Norman Winski" <nwinski@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Monday, September 03, 2001 6:31 PM
> Subject: Re: [RT] There Are No Rules!!
>
>
> > Bobr,
> >
> > If you look at the band of historical values for the past 100 years you
> > will see that you could halve the DJIA or S&P and it would still be
> > expensive. Back in 1974, I was buying stocks with a 6 PE and a 6% div.
> > yield. Where would those valuations put the current indices? Oh my! <G>
> >
> > Cheers,
> >
> > Norman
> >
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "BobR" <bobrabcd@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Sent: Monday, September 03, 2001 4:39 PM
> > Subject: Re: [RT] There Are No Rules!!
> >
> >
> > > Let's assume that W. Buffet is correct in that we are in for 8 years of
> > > stagnation or slow growth. I did not read his exact comments and might
> be
> > > in error on the paraphrase. Then lets assume the Dow dividends will
> > remain
> > > the same or even decrease. In July they were $174 with the DJIA around
> > > 10,500 yielding 1.65%. The snp and the dow tend to run into stiff
> > > resistance at 1.5% dividends. It seems to me that prices are not yet
> > > reflecting the reality of Buffet's analysis. Nor are they reflecting
> the
> > > significant tax selling directly ahead. The olde megaphone is speaking
> > > rather loudly about a drop to the area between 8000 and 9000 at a
> minimum
> > > and that would only bring the yield up to 2%. It just doesn't seem like
> > too
> > > far a fetched possibility.
> > >
> > > bobr
> > > http://www.zubee.com
> > > http://www.oextrader.com/sigma_trader
> > >
> > >
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: "Earl Adamy" <eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>
> > > To: "Realtraders" <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > Sent: Monday, September 03, 2001 1:11 PM
> > > Subject: [RT] There Are No Rules!!
> > >
> > >
> > > > I have been reading the Daily Comment columns (left side of main page)
> > for
> > > > some months now at http://www.comstockfunds.com/ and have found many
> to
> > be
> > > > interesting, especially since they provide some balance to the
> constant
> > > drum
> > > > of bullishness still found in the media. The latest daily comment
> "There
> > > Are
> > > > No Rules!!" offers a pithy counterpoint to those who argue that the
> > > oversold
> > > > technicals (TRIN, A/D, oscillators, etc.) demand an end to the bear
> > > market.
> > > >
> > > > Earl
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > > > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
> > http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> > > >
> > > >
> > >
> > >
> > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
> http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> > >
> > >
> >
> >
> >
> > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >
> >
> >
> > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> >
> >
>
>
>
> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>
>
>
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>
>
--
__________________________________________________________
John T. Nelson | John's Trading Journal
trader@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx | http://trader.computation.org/
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