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The bear market of 1974 not only provided a chance to buy stocks with 6 PE
and a 6% dividend yield; it produced a market psychology that many of
today's younger traders might find almost unimaginable. Following the
"go-go" market top in 1969, the market decline culminated in a slow grind
lower, month after disappointing month, until bullish psychology was
completely dashed. At the bottom, very few people were interested in owning
stocks. Many mutual funds (darlings of the 60's) traded below their net
asset value on very low volume. Many owners of such funds could barely
bring themselves to check the price of their funds in the Sunday paper since
they grew to expect the values would invariably be unchanged to lower.
Unlike 1987 or 1992 when sentiment rebounded more quickly, the protracted
decline of 1974 soured many investors on stocks for years to come.
I am not suggesting that we are headed for a repeat of 1974; I do not think
any of us can divine the future. But looking back can be worthwhile, if
only to remind ourselves that markets will find a way to surprise the
majority of investors and downtrends feed on buyers turned sellers who
"didn't think it would go this low."
Have a good week,
Jim Alvis
----- Original Message -----
From: "Norman Winski" <nwinski@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Monday, September 03, 2001 6:31 PM
Subject: Re: [RT] There Are No Rules!!
> Bobr,
>
> If you look at the band of historical values for the past 100 years you
> will see that you could halve the DJIA or S&P and it would still be
> expensive. Back in 1974, I was buying stocks with a 6 PE and a 6% div.
> yield. Where would those valuations put the current indices? Oh my! <G>
>
> Cheers,
>
> Norman
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "BobR" <bobrabcd@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Monday, September 03, 2001 4:39 PM
> Subject: Re: [RT] There Are No Rules!!
>
>
> > Let's assume that W. Buffet is correct in that we are in for 8 years of
> > stagnation or slow growth. I did not read his exact comments and might
be
> > in error on the paraphrase. Then lets assume the Dow dividends will
> remain
> > the same or even decrease. In July they were $174 with the DJIA around
> > 10,500 yielding 1.65%. The snp and the dow tend to run into stiff
> > resistance at 1.5% dividends. It seems to me that prices are not yet
> > reflecting the reality of Buffet's analysis. Nor are they reflecting
the
> > significant tax selling directly ahead. The olde megaphone is speaking
> > rather loudly about a drop to the area between 8000 and 9000 at a
minimum
> > and that would only bring the yield up to 2%. It just doesn't seem like
> too
> > far a fetched possibility.
> >
> > bobr
> > http://www.zubee.com
> > http://www.oextrader.com/sigma_trader
> >
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Earl Adamy" <eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>
> > To: "Realtraders" <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Sent: Monday, September 03, 2001 1:11 PM
> > Subject: [RT] There Are No Rules!!
> >
> >
> > > I have been reading the Daily Comment columns (left side of main page)
> for
> > > some months now at http://www.comstockfunds.com/ and have found many
to
> be
> > > interesting, especially since they provide some balance to the
constant
> > drum
> > > of bullishness still found in the media. The latest daily comment
"There
> > Are
> > > No Rules!!" offers a pithy counterpoint to those who argue that the
> > oversold
> > > technicals (TRIN, A/D, oscillators, etc.) demand an end to the bear
> > market.
> > >
> > > Earl
> > >
> > >
> > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
> http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> > >
> > >
> >
> >
> > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >
> >
> >
> > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> >
> >
>
>
>
> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>
>
>
> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
>
>
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