Re: [RT] Re: inflation // Dollar looks dead at mom

["Jean Jacques Chenier" <JChenier@xxxxxxxxxx>]

Hi Serge,
 
As for our trading system (or most of the trading 
systems) this is not how it works: we have no target and we will get out when 
the system, based on a combination of indicators, will gives us a signal to get 
out. For the time being we enjoy the trend. This is obviously the market action 
that will move our indicators and pull us out (except in case of strong action 
against us that trigger the stops). 
 
As a matter of fact it's about the same for a 
fundamental point of view or for a discretionary (opposed to systematic) but 
technical point of view. Based on the fundamentals  <FONT face=Arial 
size=2>I would get out of a long position when the fundamentals change and/or if 
all the bullish fundamentals are, in my opinion , factored into the market 
regardless of where the market is trading. Same thing with the technicals: l get 
out when they seems to indicate an end to the move.
 
Personally I think that trying to define 
targets is a rater fruitless attempt unless you trade very short term, which I 
don't do and which is not what we are talking about speaking of the 
Dollar.
 
However, to try 
to answer your question as an intellectual exercise (and not for trading 
purposes) it seems to me that the Euro should not be able to sustain its upmove 
after November. First the recent weakness in the US economy will spread to 
Europe whatever they say there. Second the approach of the introduction of the 
Euro-cash could boost inflation (retailers are already starting to adjust 
their prices up) which will make impossible for the ECB to cut interest rates, 
which will be bad for growth. At the same time it will slow the economy because 
people will just restrain to buy till they get used to the new currency, which 
could take a while. Pricewise the target could be $0.98 but this is at best an 
educated (I hope)  guess and I would not bet the ranch on it.
 
I will let the market action dictate my exit 
point.
 
Sorry not to be able to answer better your 
question.
 
Good Luck.
 
 

Jean Jacques Chenier.
Alternative Asset Management, Inc
<A 
href="http://www.alterama.com";>www.alterama.com
<A 
href="mailto:JChenier@xxxxxxxxxxxx";>JChenier@xxxxxxxxxxxx
 
<BLOCKQUOTE 
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
  ----- Original Message ----- 
  <DIV 
  style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From: 
  r2d2 
  To: <A 
  href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx"; 
  title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
  Sent: Thursday, August 16, 2001 10:42 
  AM
  Subject: RE: [RT] Re: inflation // Dollar 
  looks dead at mom
  
  <FONT color=#0000ff face=Kudasai 
  size=4>Hi Jean Jacques ,
  <FONT color=#0000ff face=Kudasai 
  size=4> 
  <FONT color=#0000ff face=Kudasai 
  size=4>What would you have as an upside target for the Euro and by when 
  ?
  <FONT color=#0000ff face=Kudasai 
  size=4> 
  <FONT color=#0000ff face=Kudasai 
  size=4>Serge.
  <FONT color=#0000ff face=Kudasai 
  size=4> 
  
    
    
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