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Here are a couple of other reasons why Timothy justifiably took the long
postion Friday morning. Breadth chart shows the max spread between the
normalized up and down issues occurred exactly at his reversal point.
Additionally, the @ESU1 had made a -5 std dev(ref Thurs.) drop from
Thursday's control TPO or time price opportunity. A drop of that magnitude
has a strong probability of brining in buyers from a longer time frame
period which was eventually reflected in the issues and volume on the
breadth chart. Friday the SP opened above the "value" area on Thursday,
proceeded to trade down through it for the -5 std drop, attracted LT buyers
and ran back up through the TPO and above the Thursday value area,
established a new high(for two days but still below Tues and Wed values and
TPO) and a higher TPO control point and a close in the upper 4th of the
range. CNBC had Robin Mesch(sp)(Steidlmayer associate and Market Profile
expert) on Friday with a Market Profile chart. Her interpretation was that
she wanted to see the sp break above 1212 before she could get excited. The
attached ES chart shows the confluence of control points, value areas, daily
highs for Friday(prev), Mon, Tues, Wed.
sincerely,
bobr
http://www.oextrader.com/sigma_trader
----- Original Message -----
From: "Timothy Morge" <tmorge@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <MedianLine@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Saturday, August 11, 2001 12:41 PM
Subject: Re: [MedianLine] (no subject)
> Well, the first rationale was that price tried to zoom to the down side
> through the lower MLH [the blue MLH]. That zoom failed when price closed
> back above the MLH the next bar. Several things could have happened here,
> but the most likely would then be a zoom or a rally out of the hole. As
> long as I am willing to risk to new lows plus slippage, I can try a low
> risk long--remember, I also have the 39 min S&P chart testing support and
> holding, so I have more confidence as both supports hold. I would have
> tried to buy the low of a forming coil if one had formed--and that's why I
> immediately put the stop entry above the market where I did. If a coil had
> formed, I would have tried to cheat against the edge. But when trading the
> possibility of a coil before it had formed enough to count to 4 pivots, it
> a good idea to have an order above the coil area if there is a potential
> for a break to the upside. That way, if your coil guess is wrong, you
catch
> the rally.
>
> Now, I also had the price low as having the third time down in this area,
> so I thought any up move, if support held, might be explosive. And
> cycle/time people I know and trust [Joedd] have been telling me all week
we
> were entering possible major low time and price areas.
>
> String it all together and you have what I did. Notice the Nasdaqs didn't
> offer this potential for trades.
>
> If that doesn't help, ask more questions.
>
> Tim
>
>
>
>
>
> At 03:13 PM 8/11/2001 -0400, you wrote:
> >tim--
> > i am interested in getting a deeper understanding of the long position
you
> >took fri morning in SnP. i know that from a gann, fibo and options point
of
> >view we were at a critical level at that point..i see the medianline test
and
> >hold and the confluence on the 13min.. i guess i just don't understand
the
> >exact trigger for the trade. is it a setup you have seen many times and
are
> >going to teach in one of your manuals?would you not have taken trade if
there
> >was sharp alternation in the closes of those bars suggesting coil?was it
your
> >experience as a trader combining all of the above.?usually i can see the
> >medianline rationale for trade.this one i just am missing
something.thanks.
> >g.k.
> >To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> >MedianLine-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >
> >
> >
> >Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the
> ><http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/>Yahoo! Terms of Service.
>
>
> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
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>
>
>
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>
>
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