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Norman, a couple of years ago you predicted a major cyclical top in the real
estate market for the fall of this year. Since the real estate market is
such an important part of our economy, I made a note on my trading calendar.
We are now just a few months away from fall and the housing market appeears
to be running on all cyclinders, however I have serious reservations that
this can continue. Ditto for the boom in refinancing which has been putting
cash in consumer's pockets. If the housing market should topple, not only
would the last leg of the economy take a hit, but GNMA and FNMA debt could
be in serious trouble ... perhaps the reincarnation of the S&L bust.
Anything new in your crystal ball?
Earl
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