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Carl,
The market must set up right in order to get the expected turn. Was there
a big bear decline into July 1987, three months in advance of Jupiter -
Uranus, to set up a big rally, as we had into March 2001? NO!! The market
was in a mini bubble rally into late August 1987. So, here we have one of
the few exceptions and the market action would have warned you to beware. On
the other hand, if you are open to the possibility of an inversion, as the
setup indicated, then forecasting the turn within four days on an average
40.5 month works out to an accuracy in time of .996755. Anyone who trades
should be aware of the rule of exception which says that when a reliable
rule or pattern is broken, it is broken in a very big way. This has been
found in the distribution of matter in the universe and certainly applies to
market behavior. Have you ever noticed failed technical patterns such as a
failed head & shoulders? They usually generate a much bigger move than what
would be expected for the normal pattern.
Copper has been one of the most reliable markets for the Jupiter - Uranus
pattern. My original research into this area began with copper prices. I
don't remember Jupiter -Uranus ever not working with Copper and I have made
very nice money over the past 30 years with this. However, when I looked at
the price pattern for Copper back in March, I didn't think it was a very
good setup for a buy, as it was not very oversold and had too much down side
risk. The result is that while the stock market has rallied into this
aspect, my most reliable market, Copper went down. It didn't cost me a cent,
because I didn't play it. If Copper has a panic sell into June 19-22, I will
look to go long, because that will be an obvious inversion. You can't trade
these cycles in blind isolation. They don't always follow the ideal model.
However, if you are aware of their occasional tricks, one can avoid the
pitfalls and turn lemons into lemonade.
Before giving up, you may want to go back over the past 100 years of DJIA
data vs. the Jupiter - Uranus pattern and see if there is any pattern that
can be used to make money. I know that I would never risk my money until I
did the research and saw the results myself.
Regards,
Norman
----- Original Message -----
From: "Carl V" <carl.vanhaesendonck@xxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Thursday, June 14, 2001 4:59 AM
Subject: [RT] Re: Lunar Cycles and Cosmic Influences on the Market
Chris,
This is really interpelling ! I thought a trine between Jupiter and
Uranus, the 2 money and wealth related planets, was one of the most
powerful (and positive) aspects for the financial markets. And
indeed, you are right: 4 days after October crash low, there was a
perfect Jupiter-Uranus trine !!!
This will feed the arguments of the astro contras ! And the Pros will
perhaps argue that on October 18, there was a Jupiter-Sun opposition
that erased the upcoming trine effect ?
Anyway, I become more and more doubtful about these techniques.
Thanks for this useful observation.
Carl
--- In realtraders@xxxx, chrischeatham@xxxx wrote:
>
> Jupiter Uranus trine was present for crash of 87.
>
> Chris
>
>
> --- In realtraders@xxxx, "Carl V" <carl.vanhaesendonck@xxxx> wrote:
> > Norman,
> >
> > Your study below is really interesting. The only thing that
> surprised
> > me is that you seemed to forcast a dropping market for the second
> > half of the week, though there is this huge Jupiter-Uranus Trine
> > early next week (June 19)?!?
> > I was surprised that this most positive astro pattern haven't had
> > more impact on the market right now.
> > I would be interested to have your valuable opinion on that.
> >
> > Best wishes
> > Carl Vanhaesendonck
> >
> >
> > --- In realtraders@xxxx, "Norman Winski" <nwinski@xxxx> wrote:
> > >
> > > Norman
> > > nwinski@xxxx
> > >
> > >
> > > All times are EDT (GMT -4) or same as NYC.
> > >
> > > June 12 - minor pull back day, with some firming into closing
> > bell. Could
> > > be very whippy - choppy. Stay on your toes.
> > >
> > > A. = 10:29 AM = +4
> > > B. = 12:37 PM = +1
> > > C. = 1:00 PM = -8
> > > D. = 1:34 PM = + 4
> > > E. = 2:28 PM = - 2
> > > F. = 2:58 PM = -2
> > > G. = 3:10 PM = +2
> > > H. = 3:36 PM = -2
> > >
> > >
> > > June 13 = moderate up and then down for little net change
> > >
> > > A. = 9:54 AM + 8 (if big up opening, look for top here)
> > > B. = 1:42 PM 8N (possible retest high)
> > >
> > > June 14 = most negative day of the week, should be a sizeable
down
> > >
> > > A. = 12:40 AM = -32
> > > B. = 1:04 PM = FYI Tone Change
> > > C. = 3:49 PM = -2
> > > D. = 3:49 PM = -8
> > >
> > >
> > > June 15 = market bounces right back with a moderate up day led
by
> > computers
> > > and electronics. Late afternoon sell off is likely.
> > >
> > > A. = 1:13 PM = -2
> > > B. = 1:54 PM = -2
> > > C. = 2:57 PM = +8 (market starts losing upside momentum)
> > > D. = 3:37 PM = +4 = may retest high at C then some weakness
into
> > close.
> > >
> > >
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: "Don Ewers" <dbewers@xxxx>
> > > To: "Real Traders" <realtraders@xxxx>
> > > Sent: Tuesday, June 12, 2001 10:05 PM
> > > Subject: [RT] Fw: Skeptic's Dictionary full moon and lunar
> > effects.htm
> > >
> > >
> > > > A fairly asute astronomer emailed me this recently. "Maybe
the
> > most
> > > > important point made is the statement "Some people even buy
and
> > sell
> > > stocks
> > > > according to phases of the moon, "a method probably as
> sucessful"
> > as many
> > > > others". Bottom line if "whatever you are doing" works,
don't
> > fix it and
> > > > don't try to convince others it works, to each their own?
> > > > don ewers
> > > > >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
> > > >
> > > > Skeptic's Dictionary: full moon and lunar effects
> > > > Robert Todd Carroll
> > > >
> > > > SkepDic.com
> > > > RE: full moon and lunar effects
> > > >
> > > > The full moon has been linked to crime, suicide, mental
> > illness,
> > > > disasters, accidents, birthrates, fertility, and werewolves,
> > among other
> > > > things. Some people even buy and sell stocks according to
> phases
> > of the
> > > > moon, a method probably as successful as many others.
Numerous
> > studies
> > > have
> > > > tried to find lunar effects. So far, the studies have failed
to
> > establish
> > > > anything of interest, except that the idea of the full moon
> > definitely
> > > sends
> > > > some lunatics (after luna, the Latin word for moon) over the
> > edge. (Lunar
> > > > effects that have been found have little or nothing to do
with
> > human
> > > > behavior, e.g., the discovery of a slight effect of the moon
on
> > global
> > > > temperature,* which in turn might have an effect on the
growth
> of
> > > plants.*)
> > > >
> > > > Ivan Kelly, James Rotton and Roger Culver examined over
> 100
> > studies
> > > on
> > > > lunar effects and concluded that the studies have failed to
> show a
> > > reliable
> > > > and significant correlation (i.e., one not likely due to
> chance)
> > between
> > > the
> > > > full moon, or any other phase of the moon, and each of the
> > following:
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > -the homicide rate
> > > > -traffic accidents
> > > > -crisis calls to police or fire stations
> > > > -domestic violence
> > > > -births of babies
> > > > -suicide
> > > > -major disasters
> > > > -casino payout rates
> > > > -assassinations
> > > > -kidnappings
> > > > -aggression by professional hockey players
> > > > -violence in prisons
> > > > -psychiatric admissions
> > > > -agitated behavior by nursing home residents
> > > > -assaults
> > > > -gunshot wounds
> > > > -stabbings
> > > > -emergency room admissions
> > > > -behavioral outbursts of psychologically challenged
> rural
> > adults
> > > > -lycanthropy
> > > > -vampirism
> > > > -alcoholism
> > > > -sleep walking
> > > > -epilepsy
> > > >
> > > > If so many studies have failed to prove a significant
> > correlation
> > > > between the full moon and anything, why do so many people
> believe
> > in these
> > > > lunar myths? Kelly, Rotton, and Culver suspect four factors:
> media
> > > effects,
> > > > folklore and tradition, misconceptions, and cognitive biases.
I
> > would add
> > > a
> > > > fifth factor: communal reinforcement.
> > > >
> > > > the media perpetuates lunar myths
> > > >
> > > > Kelly, et al., note that lunar myths are frequently
> > presented in
> > > films
> > > > and works of fiction. "With the constant media repetition of
an
> > > association
> > > > between the full moon and human behavior it is not surprising
> > that such
> > > > beliefs are widespread in the general public," they say.
> > Reporters also
> > > > "favor those who claim that the full moon influences
behavior."
> It
> > > wouldn't
> > > > be much of a story if the moon was full and nothing happened,
> > they note.
> > > > Anecdotal evidence for lunar effects is not hard to find and
> > reporters lap
> > > > it up, even though such evidence is unreliable for
establishing
> > > significant
> > > > correlations. Relying on personal experience ignores the
> > possibility of
> > > > self-deception and confirmation bias. Such evidence may be
> > unreliable,
> > > but
> > > > it is nonetheless persuasive to the uncritical mind.
> > > >
> > > > Folklore and tradition:
> > > >
> > > > Many lunar myths are rooted in folklore. For example,
an
> > ancient
> > > > Assyrian/Babylonian fragment stated that "A woman is fertile
> > according to
> > > > the moon." Such notions have been turned into widespread
> > misconceptions
> > > > about fertility and birthrates. For example, Eugen Jonas, a
> > Slovakian
> > > > psychiatrist, was inspired by this bit of folklore to create
a
> > method of
> > > > birth control and fertility largely rooted in astrological
> > superstitions.
> > > > The belief that there are more births during a full moon
> persists
> > today
> > > > among many educated people. Scientific studies, however, have
> > failed to
> > > find
> > > > any significant correlation between the full moon and number
of
> > births
> > > (See
> > > > "Lunar phase and birth rate: A fifty-year critical review,"
by
> R.
> > Martens,
> > > > I. Kelly, and D. H. Saklofske, Psychological Reports, 63, 923-
> > 934, "Lunar
> > > > phase and birthrate: An update," by I. Kelly and R. Martens,
> > Psychological
> > > > Reports, 75, 507-511). In 1991, Benski and Gerin reported
that
> > they had
> > > > analyzed birthdays of 4,256 babies born in a clinic in France
> > and "found
> > > > them equally distributed throughout the synodic (phase) lunar
> > cycle"
> > > (Kelly,
> > > > et al. 1996, 19). In 1994, Italian researchers Periti and
> > Biagiotti
> > > reported
> > > > on their study of 7,842 spontaneous deliveries over a 5-year
> > period at a
> > > > clinic in Florence. They found "no relationship between moon
> > phase and
> > > > number of spontaneous deliveries" (Kelly, et al. 1996, 19).
> > > >
> > > > Despite the fact that there is no evidence of a
> significant
> > > > correlation between phases of the moon and fertility, some
> people
> > not only
> > > > maintain that there is, they have a "scientific" explanation
> for
> > the
> > > > non-existent correlation. According to "Angela" of
> > AstraConceptions at
> > > > fertilityrhythms.com,
> > > >
> > > > ...photic (light) signals sent by the lens and retina
> of
> > the eyes
> > > > are converted into hormone signals by the pineal gland. It is
> the
> > pineal
> > > > gland which signals the onset of puberty in humans and plays
a
> > part in the
> > > > fertility rhythms of all species.
> > > >
> > > > In animals which reproduce seasonally, it is the
> changing
> > light
> > > > patterns which trigger the fertility cycle. The gradual
change
> in
> > both the
> > > > length of day and the changing angle of the sun in the sky
> > (caused by
> > > > earth's motion) is interpreted by the pineal gland as a
signal
> to
> > commence
> > > > the fertility season.
> > > >
> > > > Of course, humans do not reproduce seasonally. Our
> > fertility
> > > cycles
> > > > exhibit an obvious monthly rhythm. The light source which has
a
> > monthly
> > > > periodicity is, of course, the Moon.
> > > >
> > > > It is interesting to note that menstruation is
actually
> a
> > shedding
> > > > process. Just as the average menstrual cycle is 28 days in
> > length, the
> > > human
> > > > body sheds a layer of skin approximately every 28 days.
> > > >
> > > > Yes, that is very interesting to note...if you are
> > interested in
> > > > sympathetic magic. (The author also finds it noteworthy that
> > animals which
> > > > reproduce seasonally also shed their coats seasonally.) The
> author
> > > continues
> > > >
> > > > ...it is not only the changing day length but also
the
> > changing
> > > > angular position of the sun which triggers this process; the
> > pineal gland
> > > > receives photic (light) impressions and converts these into
> > hormonal
> > > > messages which signal the onset of these cycles.
> > > >
> > > > With humans the cycles of fertility (and shedding)
are
> > triggered
> > > by
> > > > photic impressions as well. Yet our cycles have a monthly
> > periodicity
> > > which
> > > > is obviously synchronized with fluctuations of the lunar
light.
> > > >
> > > > Obviously. However, the light of the moon is a very
minor
> > source of
> > > > light in most women's lives, and is no more likely than the
> moon's
> > > > gravitational force to have a significant effect upon a
woman's
> > ovulation.
> > > > Furthermore, the average menstrual cycle is 28 days but
varies
> > from woman
> > > to
> > > > woman and month to month, while the length of the lunar month
> is a
> > > > consistent 29.53 days.* Some of us have noticed that these
> cycles
> > are not
> > > > identical. Furthermore, it would seem odd that natural
> selection
> > would
> > > favor
> > > > a method of reproduction for a species like ours that
depended
> on
> > the
> > > > weather. Clouds are bound to be irregularly and frequently
> > blocking
> > > > moonlight, which would seem to hinder rather than enhance our
> > species'
> > > > chance for survival.
> > > >
> > > > Some mythmakers believe that long ago women all bled in
> > sync with
> > > the
> > > > moon, but civilization and indoor electric lighting (or even
> the
> > discovery
> > > > of fire by primitive humans) has messed up their rhythmic
> cycle.
> > This
> > > theory
> > > > may seem plausible until one remembers that there are quite a
> few
> > other
> > > > mammals on the planet who have not been affected by firelight
or
> > > > civilization's indoor lighting and, with the exception of the
> > opossum,
> > > their
> > > > cycles aren't in harmony with the moon. In the lemur, on the
> > other hand,
> > > > "estrus and sex tend to occur around the time of the full
> moon."*
> > In
> > > short,
> > > > given the large number of types of mammals on our planet, one
> > would expect
> > > > that by chance some species' estrus and menstrual cycles
would
> > harmonize
> > > > with lunar cycles. It is doubtful that there is anything of
> > metaphysical
> > > > significance in this.
> > > >
> > > > What we do know is that there has been very little
> research
> > on
> > > > hormonal or neurochemical changes during lunar phases. James
> > Rotton's
> > > search
> > > > of the literature "failed to uncover any studies linking
lunar
> > cycles to
> > > > substances that have been implicated as possible correlates
of
> > stress and
> > > > aggression (e.g., serotonin, melatonin, epinephrine,
> > norepinephrine,
> > > > testosterone, cortisol, vasopressin [directly relevant to
fluid
> > content],
> > > > growth hormone, pH, 17-OHCS, adrenocrotropic hormone)."* One
> > would think
> > > > that this area would be well-studied, since hormones and
> > neurochemicals
> > > are
> > > > known to affect menstruation and behavior.
> > > >
> > > > Misconceptions:
> > > >
> > > > Kelly et al. note that misconceptions about such things
> as
> > the
> > > moon's
> > > > effect on tides have contributed to lunar mythology. Many
> people
> > seem to
> > > > think that since the moon affects the ocean's tides, it must
be
> so
> > > powerful
> > > > that it affects the human body as well. It is actually a very
> > weak tidal
> > > > force. A mother holding her child "will exert 12 million
times
> as
> > much
> > > tidal
> > > > force on her child as the moon" (Kelly et al., 1996, 25).
> > Astronomer
> > > George
> > > > O. Abell claims that the moon's gravitational pull is less
than
> > that of a
> > > > mosquito (Abell 1979). Despite these physical facts, there is
> > still
> > > > widespread belief that the moon can cause earthquakes. It
> > doesn't; nor
> > > does
> > > > the sun, which exerts much less tidal force on the earth than
> the
> > moon.*
> > > >
> > > > The fact that the human body is mostly water largely
> > contributes to
> > > > the notion that the moon should have a powerful effect upon
the
> > human body
> > > > and therefore an effect upon behavior. It is claimed by many
> that
> > the
> > > earth
> > > > and the human body both are 80% water. This is false. Eighty
> > percent of
> > > the
> > > > surface of the earth is water. Furthermore, the moon only
> affects
> > > unbounded
> > > > bodies of water, while the water in the human body is bounded.
> > > >
> > > > Also, the tidal force of the moon on the earth depends
on
> > its
> > > distance
> > > > from earth, not its phase. Whereas the synodic period is
29.53
> > days, it
> > > > takes 27.5 days for the moon to move in its elliptical orbit
> from
> > perigee
> > > to
> > > > perigee (or apogee to apogee). Perigee (when the moon is
> closest
> > to earth)
> > > > "can occur at any phase of the synodic cycle" (Kelly et al.
> 1990,
> > 989).
> > > > Higher tides do occur at new and full moons, but not because
> the
> > moon's
> > > > gravitational pull is stronger at those times. Rather, the
> tides
> > are
> > > higher
> > > > then because "the sun, earth, and moon are in a line and the
> > tidal force
> > > of
> > > > the sun joins that of the moon at those times to produce
higher
> > tides"
> > > > (Kelly et al. 1990, 989).
> > > >
> > > > Many of the misconceptions about the moon's
gravitational
> > effect on
> > > > the tides, as well as several other lunar misconceptions,
seem
> to
> > have
> > > been
> > > > generated by Arnold Lieber in The Lunar Effect (1978),
> > republished in 1996
> > > > as How the Moon Affects You. Leiber incorrectly predicted a
> > catastrophic
> > > > earthquake would hit California in 1982 due to the
coincidental
> > alignment
> > > of
> > > > the moon and planets.
> > > >
> > > > Cognitive biases and communal reinforcement:
> > > >
> > > > Finally, many believe in lunar myths because they have
> > heard them
> > > > repeated many times by members of the mass media, by police
> > officers,
> > > > nurses, doctors, social workers, and other people with
> influence.
> > Once
> > > many
> > > > people believe something and enjoy a significant amount of
> > communal
> > > > reinforcement, they get very selective about the type of data
> > they pay
> > > > attention to in the future. If one believes that during a
full
> > moon there
> > > is
> > > > an increase in accidents, one will notice when accidents
occur
> > during a
> > > full
> > > > moon, but be inattentive to the moon when accidents occur at
> > other times.
> > > If
> > > > something strange happens and there is a full moon at the
time,
> a
> > causal
> > > > connection will be assumed. If something strange happens and
> > there is no
> > > > full moon, no connection is made, but the event is not seen as
> > > > counterevidence to the belief in full moon causality.
Memories
> get
> > > > selective, and perhaps even distorted, to favor a full moon
> > hypothesis. A
> > > > tendency to do this over time strengthens one's belief in the
> > relationship
> > > > between the full moon and a host of unrelated effects.
> > > >
> > > > The moon, madness and suicide:
> > > >
> > > > Probably the most widely believed myth about the full
> moon
> > is that
> > > it
> > > > is associated with madness. However, in examining over 100
> > studies, Kelly,
> > > > Rotton and Culver found that "phases of the moon accounted
for
> no
> > more
> > > than
> > > > 3/100 of 1 percent of the variability in activities usually
> > termed lunacy"
> > > > (1996, 18). According to James Rotton, "such a small
percentage
> > is too
> > > close
> > > > to zero to be of any theoretical, practical, or statistical
> > interest or
> > > > significance."*
> > > >
> > > > Finally, the notion that there is a lunar influence on
> > suicide is
> > > also
> > > > unsubstantiated. Martin, Kelly and Saklofske reviewed
numerous
> > studies
> > > done
> > > > over nearly three decades and found no significant
association
> > between
> > > > phases of the moon and suicide deaths, attempted suicides, or
> > suicide
> > > > threats. In 1997, Gutiérrez-García and Tusell studied 897
> suicide
> > deaths
> > > in
> > > > Madrid and found "no significant relationship between the
> synodic
> > cycle
> > > and
> > > > the suicide rate" (1997, 248). These studies, like others
which
> > have
> > > failed
> > > > to find anything interesting happening during the full moon,
> have
> > gone
> > > > largely, but not completely*, unreported in the press.
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > --------------------------------------------------------------
--
> --
> > --------
> > > >
> > > > update Feb 1, 2000: According to Allan Hall of the
Sunday-
> > Times,
> > > > German researchers Hans-Joachim Mittmeyer of the University
of
> > Tübingen
> > > and
> > > > Norbert Filipp from the Health Institute of Reutlingen claim
> > that "a study
> > > > of police reports for 50 new and full Moon cycles" shows that
> the
> > moon is
> > > > "responsible for binge drinking."
> > > >
> > > > According to Hall, Mittmeyer and Filipp claim in their
> paper
> > > "Alcohol
> > > > Consumption and the Moon's Influence" to have studied police
> > arrest
> > > reports
> > > > and blood-alcohol tests of 16,495 people and Mittmeyer
> said "The
> > results
> > > > show there is a definite correlation between new and full
Moons
> > and the
> > > > amount of alcohol consumed."
> > > >
> > > > Hall writes:
> > > >
> > > > More of those with an excess of 2ml of alcohol per
> 100ml
> > of blood
> > > > inside them - drunk, according to German law - were caught by
> > police
> > > during
> > > > the five-day full Moon cycle.
> > > >
> > > > On average 175 drink[sic]-drivers per day were caught
> in
> > two
> > > German
> > > > states two days before a full Moon, 161 were caught during
the
> > full Moon
> > > > cycle and the figure dropped to about 120 per day at other
> times.
> > > >
> > > > This very unclear statement has to be interpreted. I
took
> > it to mean
> > > > that an average of 175 drunk drivers were caught each day on
> days
> > one and
> > > > two of the five-day cycle. Thus, if the average for the whole
> > five-day
> > > cycle
> > > > was only 161, there were substantially fewer drunk drivers
> caught
> > on the
> > > > night of the full moon. Thus, it appeared to me that the
> > researchers were
> > > > not able to correlate the full moon with an increase in
> arrests,
> > so they
> > > > created 'the full moon cycle', a five day period, which gave
> them
> > the
> > > > statistical correlations they were looking for.
> > > >
> > > > Apparently, however, I was wrong in my interpretation
of
> > Hall's
> > > > meaning and Hall erred in his reading of a report from the
> German
> > Press
> > > > Agency DPA which erred in its reading of the original paper
> which
> > erred in
> > > > its interpretation of the data.
> > > >
> > > > Jan Willem Nienhuys, a mathematician in the Eindhoven
> > (Netherlands)
> > > > University of Technology, claims that "Hall's story is a
> garbled
> > version
> > > of
> > > > a story by the German Press Agency DPA." According to
Nienhuys,
> > Hall
> > > > invented the notion of a five-day full Moon cycle; the
> expression
> > is not
> > > > used by Mittmeyer and Filipp in their paper. Furthermore, 668
> of
> > the
> > > 16,495
> > > > arrested and tested were found to be sober, leaving 15,827
with
> > alcohol in
> > > > their blood, but only 4,512 with more than 0.2 percent blood
> > alcohol
> > > (i.e.,
> > > > drunk).
> > > >
> > > > According to Nienhuys, the 161 figure refers to the
> average
> > number
> > > of
> > > > drunk drivers arrested on any given date in the lunar month;
he
> > believes
> > > > this number was arrived at by dividing 4,512 by 28 (rather
than
> > 29.53, the
> > > > length of a lunar month) and hence should be 153, not 161.
> About
> > the only
> > > > thing Hall got right, says Nienhuys, is that Mittmeyer and
> Filipp
> > do claim
> > > > to have found a significant correlation between the moon and
> > excessive
> > > > drinking. He notes that the pair provide graphs but no
> statistical
> > > analysis
> > > > of their data. When such an analysis is done, says Nienhuys,
> one
> > discovers
> > > > that the study is "pompous pseudoscience." According to
> Nienhuys,
> > a
> > > standard
> > > > statistical test yields p-values which show that there is
> nothing
> > to
> > > > investigate.
> > > >
> > > > Here is the data, according to Nienhuys. Day 0 is the
day
> > of the new
> > > > moon and day 14 is the full moon.
> > > >
> > > > day drunks drinkers, including drunks
> > > > 0 145 551
> > > > 1 160 528
> > > > 2 162 552
> > > > 3 122 527
> > > > 4 162 538
> > > > 5 157 531
> > > > 6 156 504
> > > > 7 158 560
> > > > 8 140 523
> > > > 9 152 540
> > > > 10 150 552
> > > > 11 146 477
> > > > 12 173 563
> > > > 13 150 545
> > > > 14 150 523
> > > > 15 149 498
> > > > 16 145 543
> > > > 17 142 539
> > > > 18 143 507
> > > > 19 119 508
> > > > 20 157 532
> > > > 21 163 552
> > > > 22 156 513
> > > > 23 148 530
> > > > 24 154 528
> > > > 25 158 536
> > > > 26 175 582
> > > > 27 176 581
> > > > 28 169 590
> > > > ---------------------
> > > > 4437 15553
> > > > missing 75 274
> > > >
> > > > ---------------------
> > > > 4512 15827
> > > > The three big days were the 12th, 26th and 27th. You
> figure
> > it out!
> > > >
> > > > (Nienhuys article, entitled "Triply garbled tripe" is
> being
> > prepared
> > > > for publication. He was kind enough to send me a pre-
> publication
> > copy of
> > > the
> > > > paper.)
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > --------------------------------------------------------------
--
> --
> > --------
> > > >
> > > > See related entries on communal reinforcement,
> confirmation
> > bias,
> > > > control study, Occam's razor, the post hoc fallacy, selective
> > thinking,
> > > > self-deception, and subjective validation.
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > --------------------------------------------------------------
--
> --
> > --------
> > > >
> > > > further reading
> > > >
> > > > reader comments
> > > >
> > > > a.. Moonstruck! Does The Full Moon Influence
Behavior?
> by
> > Eric
> > > > Chudler
> > > > b.. lunar cycles
> > > > c.. James Rotton's review of Arnold Lieber's How the
> Moon
> > Affects
> > > > You
> > > > d.. full moon fun Urban Legends
> > > > e.. LunarColony.com
> > > > f.. Menstrual Cycles: What Really Happens in those 28
> > Days?! from
> > > > the Feminist Women's Health Center
> > > > g.. What's the link between the moon and
menstruation?
> > Cecil
> > > Adams,
> > > > The Straight Dope
> > > > Abell, George. "The Alleged Lunar Effect" in Science
> > Confronts the
> > > > Paranormal, edited by Kendrick Frazier. (Buffalo, N.Y.:
> > Prometheus Books,
> > > > 1986). Abel provides a very critical review of psychiatrist
> > Arnold L.
> > > > Lieber's The Lunar Effect: Biological Tides and Human
Emotions.
> > > >
> > > > Abell, George O. "The moon and the birthrate,"
Skeptical
> > Inquirer,
> > > > Summer 1979, vol. 3, no. 4.
> > > >
> > > > Hines, Terence. Pseudoscience and the Paranormal
> (Buffalo,
> > NY:
> > > > Prometheus Books, 1990).
> > > >
> > > > Byrnes, Gail and I.W. Kelly. "Crisis Calls and Lunar
> > Cycles: A
> > > > Twenty-Year Review," Psychological Reports, 1992, 71, 779-785.
> > > >
> > > > Gutiérrez-García, J. M. and F. Tusell. "Suicides and
the
> > Lunar
> > > > Cycle," Psychological Reports, 1997, 80, 243-250.
> > > >
> > > > Jamison, Kay R. Night Falls Fast: Understanding Suicide
> > (Knopf,
> > > 1999).
> > > >
> > > > Kelly, I. W., W. H. Laverty, and D. H.
> > Saklofske. "Geophysical
> > > > variables and behavior: LXIV. An empirical investigation of
the
> > > relationship
> > > > between worldwide automobile traffic disasters and lunar
> cycles:
> > No
> > > > Relationship," Psychological Reports, 1990, 67, 987-994.
> > > >
> > > > Kelly, I.W., James Rotton, and Roger Culver. "The Moon
> was
> > Full and
> > > > Nothing Happened: A Review of Studies on the Moon and Human
> > Behavior and
> > > > Human Belief," in J. Nickell, B. Karr and T. Genoni, eds.,
The
> > Outer Edge
> > > > (Amherst, N.Y.: CSICOP, 1996). This is an updated version of
an
> > article
> > > > which originally appeared in the Skeptical Inquirer Winter
1985-
> > 86 (vol.
> > > 10,
> > > > no. 2) and was reprinted in The Hundredth Monkey and Other
> > Paradigms of
> > > the
> > > > Paranormal, edited by Kendrick Frazier (Buffalo, N.Y.:
> Prometheus
> > Books,
> > > > 1991), pp. 222-234.
> > > >
> > > > Martin, S.J., I.W. Kelly and D.H. Saklofske. "Suicide
and
> > Lunar
> > > > Cycles: A Critical Review over 28 Years," Psychological
> Reports,
> > 1992, 71,
> > > > 787-795.
> > > >
> > > > ©copyright 2000
> > > > Robert Todd Carroll
> > > > Raymond Moody
> > > > Last updated 04/26/01
> > > >
> > > > morphic resonance
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > SkepDic.com
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > Search the Skeptic's Dictionary
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
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> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
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